A Real Ultimatum, Really?
The end is near, or so we thought. Some commentators were already putting up their final red protest analysis – such as Prof. Federico Ferrara aka Khi Kwai’s The End of the Beginning, or exiled Giles Ji Ungpakorn getting at the heart of what the reds may have achieved. May. Even the most ardent supporters thought it’s a done deal. But you’re dealing with the reds.
The analyses were written though and the reds pushed new demands by trying to politicize the justice system. Or they’re shit-scared of getting no bail. Well that’s no surprise really as the leaders at the same time tried to get new northern supply over the weekend. You could argue to have a fuller house when (conditional) victory is declared. Or more likely:
It never was in the interest of the more radical wing within the red leadership to accept the prime minister’s roadmap towards reconciliation. Intentional bluffing with the aim to “fail”? A wait of another six months until elections is defeat if you’re a radical. So despite public peace overtures, the name of the game remains the same: seeking escalation. And maybe the reds finally get what they’re after since the very beginning.
There are reports that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva for the first time himself gave the reds an ultimatum. Leave until Wednesday night, May 12th, or else. No more talks. Measures to be taken by government against reds may affect surrounding areas. First a soft squeezing of the protest by cutting access and supplies including water and electricity.
If this doesn’t do it, expect an encircling by hopefully loyal security forces, cutting the reds’ last routes, the ones who want can still leave, and so forth. The new school year opens Monday, the operation should be concluded by the weekend. But that’s the textbook scenario. Why should it play out like this when the conflict is a weird show of twists and turns since the very start. Hey by now yellow shirts even accuse Abhisit of being a watermelon premier.
So … in the last minute the reds will give in after all the posturing? Has the government enough public support by now to risk casualties? I don’t think a crackdown would be that bloody, strategic targets could be taken out swiftly, but there’s a price to pay. The north and northeast could be lost for some time.
On the other hand, talking to people and reading online stuff suggests that many wouldn’t mind the reds getting what they deserve. Others accuse the government of dishonesty – as if giving the reds more than a week is not enough – and see the hand of a genius at play in the reds’ seemingly erratic, but highly effective strategy (if you don’t want peace that is).
The conflict’s as fluid as ever. We could be on the way towards reconciliation by now with elections before year’s end. If the red radicals get their way – I say “radicals” because there’s an obvious split within red leadership – if the radical elements get their way then Abhisit cancels the reconciliation offer and even the elections due at the end of 2011 could be doubtful, who knows what would happen in between.
Interesting as well that the “resistance” at red Ratchaprasong mainly depends on upcountry folks. If you stroll through the area during a weekday morning you won’t find more than a thousand people. That’s peanuts for any army. But yes, this is Thailand where nothing even remotely is what it looks like.
Yes, some publications try to play up the many rich supporters of the red movement. You have to try hard to find them. You surely don’t see many of them during an average weekday. What you see? Honest farmers and laborers. Some sleeping, some cooking, others playing cards. Most just smiling and waiting for Godot it seems. Village life gone downtown.
The reds wouldn’t be that daredevil without good intel. But as academic Thitinan Pongsudhirak recently said: “If the reds delay a decision there will be repercussions (…) If the red shirts are intransigent public opinion will turn against them.”
Well public opinion turned long ago. The ball’s overdue in the reds’ court. If they refuse to budge and the government doesn’t act, then we got proof: we’re a country without leadership. The government’s discredited with Abhisit’s days clearly numbered. The red shirts would be a step closer to what they intended, even though a fallen prime minister doesn’t mean a dissolution of the house.
The big unknown/doubt is if Abhisit can act.
Maybe the gentleman can be tough. We’ll soon know.
Maybe.
He played it quite clever so far, being kicked from all sides. A wrong move and easily incited people get out of control. Oh by the way, do you know why lately people report so many stolen/lost I.D. cards? Well some wanna get home, but for the money they got organizers kept their cards.
Finally, the reds’ desperate heavy bargaining is only understandable. They face serious charges with – on the paper – capital punishment.
BD – please elaborate on “I don’t think a crackdown would be that bloody, strategic targets could be taken out swiftly.”
(BD: Didn’t write “eliminate.”)
Yes, I know you didn’t write “eliminate” … and neither did I.
By “elaborate” I mean will you please go into some further detail to explain what you mean.
What constitutes “not that bloody” in your view? What/who are the strategic targets – and what do you mean by “taken out”?
You prefer “neutralize”?
Surround the area for a start.
Weeks of infiltration should give intel of a quality by now where the homemade (acid, bamboo spears, etc.) and not so homemade weapons (grenades, guns, explosives?, etc.) are kept.
Hey if the Yanks can do Thais should be able to too, nah?
My suspicion though is that the U.S. embassy offered the government some sort of help, but they arrogantly refused. Would explain why Washington’s Campbell just snubbed the official Thailand.
Taking out the barricades wouldn’t be magic, they’re by no means of the mean quality of the yellow barricades surrounding Govt House in 2008.
Cutting water, electricity and supplies? The main stage has a power generator if I’m not wrong, the rest of our dear liberators are tapping into “free” public utilities …
So if ever a forced eviction is on the cards, surprise and an action plan detailing every single step are essential. How many crowd dispersal trained security forces does Thailand have? They got the cracks and can take Ratchaprasong – if, and that’s the big if, if they got the intel.
Much of the red defenses are as hollow as their words. But those weapons and – tells me a very good source – 2,000 weaponized men. Neutralizing them in time, also a question of intel. Or hasn’t the government really done nothing over the past weeks?!
BangkokDan
The government/military are frustrated, all the efforts of their (dumb) intelligence has revealed that the reds do not have any war weapons, all the violence has been by military and military related forces.
The deeper reason for forcing Suthep and Abhisit into the legal process is to bring the facts of the violence into the light.
It’s apparent that the “crackdowns” just end up with the government/military/yellow/blue, etc. opportunists just fighting each other, with some civilian including red casualties on the side.
So, do you want Thailand:
- to continue with the military in control and a succession of military puppets in the government or
– do you want to be ruled by democratic governments that bring the military under control and are subject to regular elections by the Thai people.
All Thai people of good will should join in the effort to ban all military involvement in business and politics in Thailand, keep them restricted to their role in defending against external forces not “internal enemies.”
(BD: Or rather red and yellow extremists forcing the militarization of society. If civilian leadership is a failure a priori (you’re naive if you insist the reds look promising), then it’s much to easy to blame society’s failures on some shady military interference.)
BD, so the reds are forcing militarization of society by protesting about … a coup.
Nice one.
Up against this kind of double-think they really can’t win, can they?
Sure they could win Mithran, but not by applying these tactics.
Participation instead of provocation – and I mean participation in the house as well. With Puea Thai not only sabotaging the legislature we could be somewhere else. Hence, Abhisit was not much better in the opposition.
What about good old dialog instead of extortion. Even if they’d had their own government, as legitimate as their struggle may be, hate and pressure tactics ask for a militarization of politics and society.
So yes, they could win. They enjoyed support, gave hope. Some leaders just screwed up big time by asking for more and more. That’s why the split in the leadership. Veera didn’t shop up for days, Dr. Weng said he has a cold … Veera will surrender Wednesday afternoon together with another leader. Reds could have won. But not this way.
And this just in from AFP:
BangkokDan
BD, you seem to be conducting a curious conversation with someone – and the other half of it is not me. I’m not suggesting alternatives to your choice of vocabulary but simply asking you to clarify what you wrote. Well, I’ve asked twice – no reason to suppose you’ll give a straight answer if I ask a third time.
(BD: What do you want to hear? Nothing to add I’m afraid. I keep my fingers off what’s too speculative. No clue if the red leaders will be out on bail or not or whatever, but if the government doesn’t succeed in breaking their chain of command they would obviously not have been taken out.)
Dan,
You’ve turned into the equivalent of the Rwandan radio host, Samak or Serbian Nationalists, making calls for massacre, death and bloodbath but attempting to dress them up in politer terms like “neutralize” and “eliminate.”
Personally, I think you’re perfect for Bangkok.
You belong there.
With all the other retarded political myopics.
You want to know why Thailand’s a mess?
Well, start by looking at the kind of politics expats like you with your buddies in the PAD espouse – it’s so backward, banana and weird it could easily be the subject of a Chaplinesque comedy if it wasn’t for the corpses.
(BD: Did I write “eliminate”? Did you read a single line supporting the PAD here?! I feel you yourself are commenting from a mighty ivory tower.)
Face it Flipper, one way or another we all sympathized with the reds. They just blew it big style. No one else to blame than themselves. All was negotiated. When the prime minister went on TV announcing his deal the red leadership knew all the details and had agreed in principle. Then they start changing the rules. They had one week. They blew it. Do you want to be governed by people you can’t even trust to stick to a done deal? I especially feel for the small people they let down.
The UDD leaders realized that negotiating a peace wasn’t in their best interest because without their “peaceful protest” they go back to just being sock puppets.
Since they are calling for Suthep to turn himself in for the April 10th clashes I wonder if that means they will also have their leaders with arrest warrants against them turn themselves in as well?
Let’s face it, a negotiated withdraw of protesters does absolutely nothing for Thaksin’s cause and there can be no doubt that Thaksin is pulling the strings.
You seeem to be forgetting that Abhisit’s track record means his words mean nothing – You really think red’s should be so foolish as to believe (more) mere words from Abhisit about reconciliation?
BTWa, I just came across this great piece which summarizes how Thailand has got to today’s situation.
I said at the start that the obvious (and only) solution was a quick election to clear the air, and show if Abhisit really does have legitimacy with the electorate – and I also predicted that Abhisit (and those who put & keep him there) would do all they can to avoid such an election.
Any politician who thinks his party can win an election will jump at the opportunity, especially when it is presented as a way out – you know that Dan, and all your talk of Abhisit having so much support has been spin (it’s not my business, but you might like to consider why you do it?).
Hobby had been incurably infected by that Isaan election-virus (bit him in the ass probably).
But PM Abhisit conceded a Nov. 14th election date to the reds … but the reds said that won’t be enough unless Suthep surrenders to the police first. Suthep did surrender and Dr. Weng did another “Weng” -proclamation that the occupation of Ratchaprasong will continue while the reds think up other demands …
Hobby what is about General Khattiya’s M79 grenade launching demeanor that enamors you so? Or those indiscriminate shooting black-clad ronins with assault rifles shooting at other reds in their way that touches Hobby’s tender breaking heart?
God you’re so blue-eyed Hobby. Seriously suggesting to trust these reds? Never said Abhisit has so much support, but reds have less and less. Visit the stage, a few hundred people a day … Where’s your glorious popular upheaval kicking out the ancien regime. All I see are demagogues whose main achievement so far is the preaching of hate and aggression.
The other day I met Ajahn A., a good friend, strictly in the middle of the mess, who knows a former teacher of Nattawut. So this teacher, himself unsure whom to believe, asked Nattawut why he’s doing all this. Said Nattawut: “Have you ever felt the power of ten million baht in your hand?”
Well, you have the right to say that’s rubbish, but I can only admire the red camps’ followers who keep on blindly repeating the holy mantra “There’s only us, the people, with no master Thaksin, there’s only equality among brothers and sisters.”
Wake up, please.
But I agree with you that it’s about time for Abhisit to resign. Not calling him a watermelon or tomato, but a strawberry, a sugarcoated one. We need him to walk the walk, or else.
BangkokDan
Dan: Did you read the link I posted?
The way to release the pressure has always been to go to an immediate election – that’s all the reds asked for, but your (and Vichai’s) team is scared of that – that’s why we have this mess now (and over 25 dead, and nearly 1,000 injured).
(BD: An election is all they asked for? C’est le son qui fait la musique. That’s not asking. Well while I agree that they most certainly don’t like early violence-induced elections they made a fair offer, period. Now all the red leadership does is hard bargaining for free passage. Hobby dear, the reds are heavily armed. So you also blame the dead and injured solely on the government, blindly eating the propaganda of the red leadership who’s showing off as protectors as the ones they lead into death … If violence-induced politics get their way you’ll soon be longing for pretty face Abhisit.)
Yes, immediate dissolution is all they asked for, and Abhisit refused the opportunity to prove his legitimacy (thereby confirming his illegitimacy).
Maybe it’s time you woke up Dan:
As clear as night follows day, continued/prolonged injustice inevitably leads to violence!
Hobby, I’ve been staying out of these arguments you keep having – primarily because, you keep going round and round in a circle, particularly when people disagree, rather than refute their counter argument.
As Terryfrd said in a tweet, he could recite your argument in his sleep – so could most of us.
I will not add to the circle, except to say, regarding the merit or otherwise of an election:
“THAT WAS THEN, THIS IS NOW” …
The UDD demanded that the government demonstrate no double standards by agreeing that the leaders of both sides be tried in the courts for the April 10 deaths.
They demanded that Suthep (and Abhisit when he is free from the parliament) submit themselves to arrest by the police and enter the legal process, and then the red leaders would also submit themselves.
Suthep thought he would be smart and claim that by talking to the DSI he was “entering the legal process” … surprise the reds are not satisfied, they demand that he respond to the police when they issue a summons and be formally charged, finger-printed and apply for bail like a normal person has to.
Now, to save Suthep from due legal process the government prefers to back away from the agreement and call in their army bosses to do the dirty work again.
Let’s see what the army delivers and how long Abhisit survives.
The government/military are frustrated, all the efforts of their (dumb) intelligence has revealed that the reds do not have any war weapons, all the violence has been by military and military related forces.
The deeper reason for forcing Suthep and Abhisit into the legal process is to bring the facts of the violence into the light.
It’s apparent that the “crackdowns” just end up with the government/military/yellow/blue etc. opportunists just fighting each other, with some civilian including red casualties on the side
So, do you want Thailand:
- to continue with the military in control and a succession of military puppets in the government?
or
- do you want to be ruled by democratic governments that bring the military under control and are subject to regular elections by the Thai
people?
All Thai people of good will should join in the effort to ban all military involvement in business and politics in Thailand, keep them restricted to their role in defending against external forces not “internal enemies.”
(BD: Why do I get the feeling hearing all the old repetitive stuff again and again! And an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth – weren’t we told that’s so retro? David again: UDD agreed on a deal, they backtrack, add a new demand, the government backtracks. Period.)
A political discussion with Hobby is not any different from a political discussion with a hardcore red. MMaybe like having an argument with a Taleban or an Iraqi radical.
They all sound so pained … constipated sort of.
Give me my house dissolution NOW or else – and so Hobby repeats ad vomitum (pardon my Latin).
We have seen all the “or else” violent side of the reds and ugly would be an understating adjective thereof.
What red body counts are the reds’ leadership targeting … because 25 or so dead seems so bloody unsatisfying???
GeGee: What counter argument?
BTW, did you read the link I posted above (and on the front page of my blog)?
Hobby, there are none so blind as those who cannot see.
There is no need to drag me back into your circular argument, when I already know your response.
Yes, I did visit the link – it appears to be dead or just a jpeg of a flower.
GeGee: Both links work for me, but then again I’m not in a country that routinely censors political content on the web, and puts people in jail for 18 years for political speeches.
Hobby you mean you’re not in Australia, now?
Haha couldn’t resist that …
(BD: OK thread closed for more of the same back and forth. Isn’t there so much more to share.)
It seems that the people who took out the general this evening agreed with you Dan. From the reports I have heard it was targeted and surgical and Seh Daeng is the most seriously injured person. The attact was carried out in close proximity to Chula and the shot that hit the general seems to have been from a high powered snipers rifle. We can only hope that the source of the bullet was not the much maligned hospital. The use of a grenade may have served the purpose of both diverting attention from the snipers and suggesting a different location for the source of the attack.
This part of the operation seems well planned, competently executed and, by the standards of the people who gave the orders, I assume this is to be considered a success.
Even if the military and the police can’t be trusted to cooperate with the government it seems that someone certainly means business. If I was a red I would get out now before this gets any uglier.
(BD: May sound like an apologist, but hardly think this was a govt/army operation. Just doesn’t make much sense. Read the latest post The Seh Daeng Incident.)
Thaksin Shinawatra did NOT dissolve parliament/hold elections during the nine-month PAD/yellow protests. So too Somchai and Samak … and so too Abhisit Vejjajiva. All four believed, and rightfully so, that they have the mandate to rule as given to them by the “backroom” deals with other political parties that enable them to lead a coalition of parties to govern.
I am sitting at home watching Twitter, blogs and TV and trying to figure out what is going on.
Another minor battle seems to have happened and this may be part of a concerted plan. If there is a pattern then this might reflect the government’s awareness of an obvious flaw in the red shirt guards’ positions. If the red guards continue to man the barricades then the military can pick off anyone who looks aggressive and in the process of whittling down the opposition create weaknesses or holes in their large perimeter. Particularly if they lose their command structure (and you can just bet that the key personalities have been identified through observation and infiltration), the natural impulse for the remaining guards will be to cluster in particular places. The perimeter would then break down and the government forces could first shrink the rally site, perhaps separating redshirts manning the barricades that more distant from the intersection from the more passive “civilian” protesters. Doing this would require a tremendous amount of discipline on the government forces and the flanks of their advance would be very vulnerable to determined opposition as they pushed into the red area. But if they are already in Lumpini Park and Chula U. then this move seems to be pretty obvious.
If this is the night that they go in then they have already created the shock by taking out the leader of the guards. Now they need to create the awe to stun as much of the potential resistance into passivity. To avoid massive casualties they probably will not surround the demonstration completely. I imagine that they must leave the red crowd a line of retreat (probably to the north as this is the least sensitive direction and closest to the large crowd in front of the stage). The options of the government forces, if they go ahead and do this, are obvious. Less obvious is the reaction of the red shirts in the crowds and their sympathizers. If they believe resistance is futile then this may discourage the reds from resisting too strongly. The problem for the government remains the same tonight. How do they make it clear to that resistance is futile without causing an enormous amount of damage and casualties.
It’s worth pointing out that the most astonishing thing about the events of April 10 was that the crowd held their ground and did not panic. If the same thing happens this time then it’s difficult to see how this can end well.
I would like to comment on this particular phrasing:
I would rather think it was Abhisit who knew well he was bluffing when offering the roadmap. It was a great ploy from a ruthless bunch of bandits running the current government.
The fact is, a few days after the proposal it was suggested by the government nine red leaders would be charged with terrorism and risked the death penalty.
The government knew very well that this announcement would pop the bubble, and then they could blame it on the refusal by the reds to accept the peace offering.
Shrewd political maneuvering indeed.
The word “terrorism” has replaced earlier catch words like “communists” or “traitors.”
Also, the fact the reds are not united behind a solid leadership, as I suggested before, is proof this is a real grass roots movement of discontent. It is not orchestrated by a few leaders for their own benefit.
That is not to say none tried, but the people have taken over and it is for their own benefit and dignity they now struggle, and for that of their children.
In any case, these ideas about splits in the leadership, radicals, plots to overthrow the monarchy, men in black, that invisible hand and of course, terrorists … are all just intrigue.
That intrigue is fictionalization by the government in order to create confusion both among the red shirt supporters and the populace supporting the government.
The situation is extremely straight-forward in reality.
Millions of people have been sidelined and looked down upon for three quarters of a century.
They finally found a voice at the ballot box.
That voice was stolen first by the military in the 2006 putsch and afterward, a biased judiciary and by the PAD (now backed, according to a recent poll, by a whopping 1.7% of the population)
These disenfranchised poor have had enough of being trodden upon and ignored by the wealthy and powerful and also, by the middle class.
They have also begun to understand that the small handouts known as charity in fact are the crumbs from national wealth that should be more equally shared with them in the first place.
Also as I previously wrote, these poor may not have a clear agenda for the future, but they know one thing beyond any doubt: they do NOT want things to go on as before …
(BD: What if those “downtrodden” are told by their leaders they’re someone they’re really not (yet); someone they first have to become by own merit and work? Not all’s blood-given here.)
I am weeping myself silly after reading Blue’s plaintive battle cry:
OK got it man! But time to move on. Those “disenfranchised downtrodden poor” don’t all have to die and get maimed at Ratchaprasong tonight or tomorrow. Time to gather some down-to-earth village common senses here … time to surrender Ratchaprasong so the “disenfranchised downtrodden poor” can fight another day.
I will ignore your incomprehensible comment, Vichai.
At least it is not as blatantly ignorant as this response in the Bangkok Post today to an article referring to a bomb blast that sent people scattering to the ground. The commenter is “Michael”:
I think this sort of filthy commenting is typical of those that despise the poor and think themselves somehow better and more elevated as human beings. Immersed in a smug self-delusion.
If anyone wishes to complain about such filth, which betrays the commenters lack of humanity, here is the link:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/177887/blast-at-rally-site-injures-15
Thaksin Shinawatra did NOT dissolve parliament/hold elections during the nine-month PAD/yellow protests. So too Somchai and Samak … and so too Abhisit Vejjajiva. All four believed, and rightfully so, that they have the mandate to rule as given to them by the “backroom” deals with other political parties that enable them to lead a coalition of parties to govern.