Reds Fizzle Out After Marching To Govt’s Tune

That’s not the red shirt, that’s the red short rally. Maybe I’ll go out on a limb – hey yes I had wrongly called the yellow protest a day, right before those maniacs invaded Suvarnabhumi. But looks like the Million Man March utterly failed. The rather grotesque peaceful bloodletting aside – ah, and the M79 grenade attack -, Thaksin’s red marchers may tire themselves out within a not too long time. The metaphor of the “blood promise” as an exit strategy? We were also promised regime change, the end of the “junta,” but their numbers just don’t add up. Now it’s all about not looking weak and saving face.

Somehow one can feel but pity for Thaksin. The fugitive’s now even more isolated. His so dedicated foot soldiers failed. The so far biggest show of force on Sunday with many sightseers and curious onlookers on Rajdamnoen was a sweet Pyrrhic victory before reality set in on Monday morning when the dancing and chanting solidarity started marching. Many of them knowing, this march actually leads to nowhere. They barely reached the 11th Infantry Regiment, the ultimatum passed – now the search for blood started. And many protesters, already packed, simply went home.

No one treats the potential threat of violence instigated by a small red core faction or a third party lightly. But so far most reds were peace in person. They even waited for traffic lights on their travels in the city. Then why does their March to Democracy seem to fizzle out that early? Or – to be politically correct – why do they resort to a “tactical retreat”? Well first of all, it’s a monumental challenge to jolly along tens of thousands of people. It’s hot, it’s dirty, with no quick results to be expected … But if the yellows can do it, why not the reds? Even though the yellows’ street numbers were lower, they had a rigid, tightly organized support structure, they were “local,” always a step ahead of the government – and didn’t shy away from real escalation. Raising the stakes remains the reds’ only way out to achieve something.

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March 15, 2010 | Filed Under News & Media, Politics, Society | 23 Comments 

Alarmism: An Open Letter

Dear Dan, I hope you don’t take this the wrong way but I have to say that I have been a little disconcerted by aB.com’s rather strident alarmism over the past few days. Of course, you are entitled to your own opinion, which I respect, but I would ask you to consider this possibility. Their public statements notwithstanding, the reds have no real interest in engaging in large-scale violence and property destruction. What they are trying to do is to: 1) Show that Abhisit cannot govern; and 2) Perhaps bait the government into cracking down violently. At the very worst, that is, they are trying to find a way to portray themselves as the victims of violence, as opposed to engaging in violence themselves. You might argue that this is a very cynical strategy and I would definitely agree with that. Alas, that’s how the game is played in Thailand.

However, I hope you would entertain the possibility that the only party that is actually interested in the reds turning violent is the government – in large part because that will delegitimize the red shirts and provide the excuse to repress them. As such, I think it’s at best naive and at worst disingenuous to blame the red shirts alone for the climate of fear that envelops Bangkok. We have The Nation for that, anyway. A particularly good example of this is the fact that the government now appears to be ready to impose a state of emergency, which in essence suspends all civil liberties, in the face of what so far has been an entirely peaceful demonstration (with the exception of a one-on-one scuffle in Pathum Thani).

Do they have any reasons for doing so, other than to scare the public to death? After all, the behavior of the red shirts so far has not really squared with the government’s propaganda, so that’s apparently all they have left aside from instigating some violence themselves (that itself is, in my view, forthcoming). Given the track record of military governments and military-backed governments in Thailand, are you sure you want to give them this much benefit of the doubt? Much like the reds, these people are also playing a very cynical game.

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March 14, 2010 | Filed Under Being Farang, Culture Shock, News & Media, On Our Own, Politics | 29 Comments 

Red Letdown

Well either it was too hot or their numbers just didn’t cut it yet, but a few hundred red shirts marching along selected locations in Bangkok called it a day after the widely announced start of the government’s end this Friday, March 12th. Was day 1 just a teaser?

Or has the number of protesters fallen way short of expectation? “They expected thousands at each gathering point,” tweeted The Nation’s Tulsathit Taptim, “but protest leaders only managed to gather hundreds at each spot,” said his government intelligence source.

Much too early to call it a bust. They gave a foretaste of what is possible. The reds spread. Still, not enough funds from Dubai? If we’d known this Bangkok wouldn’t have had to cancel so many events. But now all hopes and fears have been postponed to Sunday, and no one knows how many red shirts will make use of the army’s park-and-ride service with bus transport.

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March 12, 2010 | Filed Under News & Media, Politics, Society | 9 Comments 

The Great Uncertainty

Can’t count the cancellations of events for this weekend anymore. Everyone’s postponing. Parties, receptions, trips, they have to wait. The Thai capital is in the grip of the red shirts without them yet being here. Parts of Bangkok will be deserted, others rather not. Speculation is the government will issue a curfew from Friday onwards, but that would show that they don’t have the ability to control the masses.

The red protest is no longer a protest. It’s a mobilization of hope for some, victory seems near, of utter discomfort for others. Maybe we have never seen as many reds united, but they’re not here to make new friends. Make no mistake. This is no protest per se. The Shinawatras have fled the country already – flown out for business as papa Thaksin’s said on Twitter -, and Newin’s in London to see his kids.

Thaksin’s foot soldiers – how many?! – are marching, some of them unsure and scared themselves, while many people’s color of the day is no longer red or yellow, but white, the color of peace, purity and cleanness – illusory concepts in current Thailand. There is so much rumor, speculation and uncertainty all around, nobody has a clue what’s going on and what will happen. If this confusion is an intention of the red shirts, then well done, you won your first battle.

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March 10, 2010 | Filed Under News & Media, Politics | 15 Comments 

The Vongthip Letter Mar ‘10

Beyond reasonable doubts: Thaksin’s “Judgment Day” has become another unforgettable event in the Thai political history. After weeks of being second guessed by academics and political pundits, nine judges of the Supreme Court spent almost eight hours reading their historical verdict which was broadcasted nationwide.

Thaksin was found guilty on all five cases for hiding his family shareholdings behind onshore and offshore nominees during his premiership, for conflict of interest, for abusing his power as head of the government, and for becoming unusually rich as the result of ruthless changes in policies, laws and regulations to benefit his family businesses.

The court ruled that the excess amount of THB 46 billion (out of THB 76 billion that had been frozen since 2006) was to be confiscated by the state. The remaining THB 30 billion would be returned after deduction of related income taxes, fines and other charges due.

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March 5, 2010 | Filed Under Business & Economics, Politics, Property & Investment, The Vongthip Letters | 7 Comments 

Reds’ One Big Bang? – Or: Civil War? We’ll See

Doomsday is the word of the day again with the reds’ million-man march in Bangkok approaching on March 14th. Well, they’re lucky if they get a 100,000 people, a seasoned observer told aB.come after the FCCT’s recent press conference of the red shirts’ United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship UDD.

Red leader Jaran Ditthapichai assured us they’ll get half a million or more people from mainly the north and northeast, assuming their pick-up trucks get gas – didn’t you hear the rumor about a government-sponsored closure of gas stations? And assuming they can pass security checkpoints.

That’s right, the reds claim that the government instructed bus companies to not transport red shirts to Bangkok. With tens of thousands of red shirts and their thousands of pick-ups soon stretching all the way from Sanam Luang to Rama V expect some major traffic nuisance. Well the red shirts are giving the prime minister a choice. Dissolve the house. Or suppress us.

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March 3, 2010 | Filed Under Politics | 44 Comments 

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