Mending the fences: Thanks to FIFA, Thai football fans put away their politically colored shirts to spend sleepless nights watching the World Cup matches in South Africa. News of favorite teams and players dominated most newspapers and TV screens. An avid football fan himself, PM Abhisit has, however, managed to accomplish most of what he had promised. On 7/6/10 he left for half a day trip to Vietnam, to attend the World Economic Forum and meet up with Asean leaders at the Greater Mekong Subregion summit meeting. He took the opportunity to brief world’s business leaders of the current political situation in Thailand and to assure them that his government was taking every possible step to restore law and order while moving the country forward toward national reconciliation.

On 7/6/10 he announced another cabinet reshuffle (5th), with eight new ministers mostly from the Democrat Party. Throughout the month, the Abhisit government continued to address the country’s most urgent economic issues i.e. severe El Nino drought (worst in 18 years) that had delayed rice planting by at least six weeks. The Map Ta Phut environmental problems were finally sorted out, with 18 activities to be banned and clearer rules and regulations to become effective by year-end. After years of frozen salaries, civil servants were granted a special bonus to be paid out in 10/10 and a 5% salary increase to be effective in 4/11.

Farmers’ problem loans too were being refinanced or restructured with hefty haircuts. The first lot of community title deeds was given out. Shooting prices of sugar and eggs were promptly addressed and lowered. Rescue package for those affected by the Ratchaprasong shutdown and arson was fine-tuned and extended to include foreign businesses in the area. To ease the burden of the urban poor, free electricity (max. 90 kw), free (hot) bus, free (third class) train and subsidized LPG, were extended till year end, when PM Abhisit hope to make some of them permanent.

By Vongthip Chumpani*

Reform Thailand: To restore social equilibrium, PM Abhisit quickly launched his 5-points National Reconciliation Roadmap. Sombat Thamrong-thanyawong, a respected academic was appointed to chair the panel to scrutinize changes to the Constitution. Former Attorney General Kanit na Nakorn was chosen to head the independent fact finding panel called Truth and Reconciliation Committee, to probe into the root causes of the violent clashes in 5/10 within two years. On 18/6/10 former PM Anand Panyarachun agreed to head the independent panel to set out national reform policies.

He would be working closely with Dr. Prawase Wasi, a highly respected social commentator, who was asked to lead the National Reform Assembly to gather public views on how reforms should be implemented to overcome social disparities. Implementation plan would be worked out within three years, with an annual budget of THB 200 million. PM Abhisit also appointed Yubol Benjarongkit to set up a panel to kick-start reform of the media. Last but not least, Pol Gen. Vasist Dejkunchorn was invited to chair the panel to restructure the police force.

Do you hear what I hear?

In the belief that public policies should come from the people, not from a few people with their own agenda, PM Abhisit has initiated a number of public hearings in earnest. On Rice Day 5/6/10, farmers were invited to air their views at the government house. In successive events, PM Abhisit extended his invitation to various sectors of the Thai society e.g. NGOs, civic groups, academics, local and international business groups, foreign diplomats, foreign investors, local and foreign mass media, to share and exchange their views with him on national reconciliation and reform issues that were important and of special concern to them.

For six days, the PM, his cabinet members and hundreds of civic minded volunteers took turn to man some 300 telephone lines opened to any callers who wished to air their needs, recommendations and complaints. Most of the issues raised were related to the current economic hardships. Many were to give encouragement to PM Abhisit and his government. As expected, there were earfuls of abuses and insults from those who sympathized with the red shirt movement. Based on the number of calls on the subject, the ministry of finance had to set up a special hot line to record problems related to loans in the unorganized market. All input were documented and sorted out for further analysis and solutions under the national reconciliation framework.

CRES’ emergency

The Center for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation CRES has estimated that some THB 30 billion was spent on financing the red shirt movement’s political activities. Some 83 individuals and firms suspected of funding and acting as financial proxies for the red shirts were identified and told to clarify their financial transactions from 9/09 to 5/10 to CRES investigators representing the DSI – Department for Special Investigation, the Revenue Department, the Anti-Money Laundering Office and the Office of the Narcotics Control Board.

Through it all, there were death threats against key government officials and a few bomb explosions at some of the 68 targets identified by the security people. Two red shirts were arrested in Siemreap and sent back to Thailand by the Cambodian government for masterminding the bombing of the Bhumjaithai Party headquarters In spite of private sector’s recommendation to the contrary, the Abhisit government decided to maintain the Emergency Decree in Bangkok and in 19 provinces in the Northeast and the North as a matter of precaution against threats of another major violent outburst.

All quiet before storm?

In 6/10 Thaksin has kept a low profile and did not call home as was the habit. Instead, his cause was aptly amplified by a team of international lobbyists, led by a Robert Amsterdam who made strategic and systematic attacks on the Abhisit government, accusing them of colluding with the Thai military to violently crack down on the red shirt movement and to permeate a non-democratic government. Throughout 6/10, there was a stream of negative foreign press and TV reports on Thailand. Thaksin’s “hired guns” took actions to discredit the Abhisit administration with the U.N. Human Rights Council, the U.S. congress and the European parliament.

Alas, the Abhisit government was able to contain the damages. UNHRC elected Thailand’s ambassador Sihasak, not only as a member but also as chairman of the council. The US Congress voted 441:4 in favor of PM Abhisit’s national reconciliation roadmap. A Bangkok by-election on 27/7/10 was expected to be a good indication of the snap election, to be called some time next year. It would go to show whether the Puea Thai candidate, a core red shirt leader arrested and jailed for terrorist activities, could win over a Democrat candidate, former deputy minister of foreign affairs responsible for “hunting down” Thaksin as he flew all over the world in his private jet.

A pleasant surprise

Notwithstanding the bloody political mess in 4-5/10, Thailand’s economic resilience has been substantiated once again by the better than expected 5/10 data. Public debt was down to 42% of GDP. And government budget deficit this year was expected to be only 3.5% of GDP. Investment has also picked up, mostly in machinery and equipment to support future export orders, with capacity utilization between 65-70%. Export of farm goods increased 42% yoy. Total export went up to USD 16.44 billion and import USD 14.14 billion. Trade balance was positive again at USD2.3 billion. Current account balance was USD 1.0 billion in the black. Balance of payment however recorded a deficit of USD 989 million. International reserves dipped slightly to USD 143.5 billion.

As at end of 6/10, THB remained firm at THB 32.37 to USD, THB 36.23 to Yen, THB 39.71 to Euro and THB 48.67 to Sterling. In spite of net capital outflows from equities and bonds, the SET ended the month on a firm note at 797. Interest rates remained unchanged. The country’s 2010 GDP forecast was adjusted back to 5 – 6% and inflation to 3.5%. Export for 1-5/10 totaled USD 75 billion, up 34.5% from the same period of last year. The only bad news came from tourism, down by 20.2% in 4/10 and 12.9% in 5/10, with average hotel occupancy rate at only 30%. Arrivals from Asean and East Asia declined the most. Increased political stability was however expected to attract tourists from Europe and North America for the peak season starting in 10/10.

Businessmen’s pitch

To move the country forward, the Thai private sector has come up with their own four pronged economic development plan, to be undertaken jointly by regional chambers of commerce and provincial federations of industries. They would focus on increasing the farmer income, beefing up regional tourism, improving basic infrastructures through reduction of national logistics cost (from 19% to 14% of production cost), and increasing cross border trade, in preparation for Asean Community integration in 2015. The business community in Thailand has come to appreciate the necessity and the urgency of redressing the country’s huge wealth distribution gap.

They have been pitching in with their own contributions in cash and in kinds. They would be coming up with new ideas and recommendations with regard to PM Abhisit’s latest challenge to substantially increase the minimum wages in exchange for tax incentives. While many believed higher minimum wages would give the poor a chance to upgrade their lives and thereby stimulate domestic spending, others cautioned that inflation could soon neutralize the benefits and make Thailand less competitive as an FDI destination. Ultimately mutually acceptable solutions would materialize as Thai society learnt how to constructively work out their differences and share the wealth of their nation more equitably.

* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.

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2. The Vongthip Letter Jun ‘10 Bangkok burning: May was a most agonizing month for the people of Thailand. Hardcore red shirts moved ferociously to expand...
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Relive Black May with Al Jazeera’s “The Rageh Omaar Report: The Year of Living Dangerously.” As if the Thai government’s PR campaign fell on deaf ears you’re left wondering if the red shirts are no front. The last words belong to the opposition, it’s the government that’s in need of explanations. Add some somber music and there you have a classic drama.

There is always the danger of superficiality and clichés when outsiders try insider reports. It’s suggested the poor and innocent were only armed with slingshots and firecrackers. Still, we learn that the reds try to turn the pro-Thaksin movement into something very different, into a class war – and why is it that fewer people visit Siriraj Hospital these days?

Think what you want of our governor, but Sukhumbhand’s assessment of implicitly calling the red protest self-defeating gets lost amidst much “there’s no way out.” Sukhumbhand warns the rural people who were on the streets they’re the first to feel the effects of the protest. They’ll suffer. We hear Jatuporn, but no word about the cash war, war weapons, lies and deception.

No wonder the reports’ comments at Al Jazeera’s YouTube site are locked. Or is there a way out? And just a thought: If the reporter would ask his local colleagues how to pronounce local names he’d only gain credibility.

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Do the math, and it doesn’t look good for either the government and the opposition with the red “class war” exposed as a “cash war.” Authorities claim Thaksin kin transferred the astronomical amount of some 15 billion baht to the red movement within a few days after April 28th, along with the real escalation of the alleged Gandhi-style peace march. What others romanticized as the poor making their voice heard turns out to be – what a bummer for those deceived – Thailand’s most expensive political campaign ever. And let’s set the record straight: Thailand is not one of the most unequal societies; income inequalities are lower than in the most developed nations of the region.

But the red protest was more about hatred than inequalities, wasn’t it. Altogether authorities list transactions amounting to some staggering 122 billion baht gone into red coffers as per the graph further below. Too much, not possibly possible. That would build five airports à la Suvarnabhumi. Shaky figures, maybe money that circulated? The Thaksins still can freely move billions? The amount’s so big Thais don’t even have a word for that number. Calculating in thousands of millions of baht they’re not the only ones left scratching their heads. Thaksin’s son, elder daughter, brother-in-law and youngest sister alone coughed up the equivalent of some 490 million U.S. dollars within a few days.

Innocent unless proven otherwise. Fact is, we all know a lot of money changed hands. The million man march was never to be, but there’s a high probability a multi-billion baht protest was. Still, the Thaksin kin’s 15 billion baht is also the amount expected to be circulated during this World Cup. So nothing out of the ordinary really, aren’t we used to gambling in society also on the political level. You don’t gamble though for the common good. You gamble for money. The billion baht brotest must have made some bros filthy rich. Who would have imagined illicit labor can be that lucrative. And there you have your core followers, leaving the true peaceful democratic reds out in the rain.

Authorities ask 86 blacklisted individuals and companies have to prove their innocence. So far during these turbulent years Thaksin’s children were left off the hook, but if daddy manages to implicate them this time, well that would ridicule his regretful claim the other day that he’d better never have entered politics. It is furthermore unclear if Thaksin’s children and (former) wife have returned to Thailand since the fled the country on April 29th, right when the massive red rally funds started moving. How to defend themselves?

For the future, if you wanna stay safe, just observe if key players stay here in solidarity with their people – or if they have better things to do. Just move along with the Thaksins. Their fleeing is a more reliable indicator of trouble ahead than any know-it-all analysis.

Finally, the real amount spent for and during the red rally shouldn’t be much different from the costs of an election win in Thailand’s venal democracy. Is the protest an investment gone sour? I’d euphorically say yes. But as a rule of thumb Thaksin will keep quiet for a few weeks before he’s back again – as if nothing ever happened – championing the virtues of freedom and democracy.

But then again, Thailand may be a changed place since Black May 2010. The recent red mayhem has no parallel in Thai history. Don’t make a fool of yourself trying to compare May 19th, 2010, to Thailand’s other black anniversaries of 1973, 1976 and 1992 when people died on the streets for democracy. It has become clear as daylight this is no fight between yellow and red. People died for Thaksin.

(Source: Bangkok Post)

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Some interesting thoughts from the quotemeister – to speak with Bangkok Pundit – who needs no introduction.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak remained rather quiet during the past weeks. He’s diplomatic in this Asean TV report, but minces no words.

Thitinan warns of ramifications for the region if Thai democracy does not overcome its “dead end democracy.”

Here’s Thailand’s probably most influential academic on the wider context of the Thai political outlook, on continuity and change – if you comment, please use the same diplomatic language:

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Bangkok burning: May was a most agonizing month for the people of Thailand. Hardcore red shirts moved ferociously to expand their territory further into Bangkok CBD. With the number of casualties increasing by the day from snipers and M79 grenades, the Abhisit government declared 17-21/5/10 as public holidays in Bangkok, during which Bangkokians stayed put, bracing themselves for further violence. In the early hours of 19/5/10, the army began their offensive manoeuvres to remove red shirt barricades around the Ratchaprasong area.

By early afternoon, the red shirt leaders announced an end to their demonstration and, before giving themselves up at the police headquarters, urged some 3,000 remaining protesters to go home in government’s prepared coaches. Hundreds of protesters, however, refused to leave. They went instead into the temple next door, Wat Pathum Wanaram, to spend the night. Throughout that afternoon and evening, hard core red shirts together with “men in black” were shooting and throwing M79 grenades at the soldiers.

They roamed the city and set fire to some 36 buildings all over Bangkok. That night, the red shirts also burned down the provincial city halls in Ubon, Udon and Khonkaen. Meanwhile, corporate Bangkok kept their cool as they calmly switched on their emergency systems and went on damage control modes. Meanwhile 43 countries issued their strongest warning against traveling to Thailand. The international community was stunned by the violence, unseen before in this “Land of Smiles.”

By Vongthip Chumpani*

Together we can! On 23/5/10 the Rajprasong area was finally cleared by the military and returned to BMA. Tens of thousands of young and old Bangkokians immediately put on their work gears, rolled up their sleeves and spent the whole Sunday cleaning up the streets and the sidewalks where the red shirts had camped out during their 70 day demonstration. On 24/5/10, Bangkok schools were opened, people went back to work and life returned to normal, except for the midnight curfew. To cheer people up, singers and artists came out in full force to write songs and stage concerts about peace and unity.

On Visakha Puja day (28/5/10), people flocked to temples all over the country to pray for peace and national reconciliation. The following weekends, Silom and nearby streets were turned into weekend markets for thousands of entrepreneurs who lost their shops and inventories in the inferno. Like New Yorkers after 9/11, Bangkokians have come to realize how precious their “City of Angels” was. People from all walks of life have joined hands with the government and BMA to revive Bangkok and put the country back on track again.

Collateral damages

It did not matter whether they were soldiers, red shirts, innocent bystanders, volunteer workers or journalists, the country mourned those 88 people who lost their lives and sympathized deeply with 1,885 people who were injured during the violent crashes. Total damage to properties, infrastructures and the economy was estimated to be as high as THB 150 billion. Most damaged were of course Thailand’s confidence, credibility and image in the global community.

In the last two months, most tourists have disappeared from the streets of Bangkok, many FDI investors were reported to have shifted their investment elsewhere, and foreign investors have sold over THB 50 billion of their portfolio holdings. A few foreign mass media too have been dragging Thailand through mud on account of their favorite theme i.e. military violently cracked down on peaceful demonstrators who were fighting for democracy and equality”. Over night, Thailand’s young and old generations have turned activists in the defense of their “king and country” in the cyber world. Even the powerful CNN was not spared!

Healing time

After the red shirts went home, the curfew was called off on 29/5/10 and PM Abhisit was able to reaffirm his legitimacy by sailing through the 2011 budget parliamentary debate on 24-26/5/10 and the no-confidence debate, called for by the Opposition, on 31/5-2/6/10. With the Lower House in recess until 8/10, PM Abhisit would have more time to focus on stabilizing the situation in and outside Bangkok, set up independent committees to investigate the violent incidents, bring the leaders (including Thaksin), instigators, financiers and operators of the terrifying insurgence to court, and restore confidence locally and abroad.

Now that a snap election has been ruled out, an immediate cabinet reshuffle was imminent. Efficient and effective implementation of short term rehabilitation programs and long term political and social reforms, particularly in contentious areas, would have to be carried out before election time. Mindful of the possibility of renewed conflicts, more people have pitched in to help direct and protect their country from greedy politicians and corrupt bureaucrats.

Down but not out

The on-going political turmoil has started to infect the remarkable economic growth of over 12% in 1Q10. In 4/10, industrial utilization went down to 62.3%. Exports slumped to USD 13,832 million and imports to USD 14,022 million, resulted in a trade deficit of USD 190 million. Current account balance also was USD 423 million in the red. However, balance of payments showed a USD 3,749 million surplus, including a net capital inflow of USD 2,999 million. International reserves went up slightly to USD 147.6 billion. Consumer price index was 3% and core inflation 0.5%. 1Q10 healthy unemployment rate of 1.3% (430,000) was expected to deteriorate in the aftermath of the political crisis.

With consumer confidence index at 9 months low, the Bank of Thailand decided to maintain Repo rate at 1.25%. Contrary to earlier fear, the SET ended the month at 750. The Baht weakened to THB 32.50 to USD/THB 40 Euro/THB 35.29 to Yen. Considering FY 2011 fiscal budget spending of THB 2.07 trillion together with government’s THB 100 billion rescue packages for victims of the 19/5/10 inferno, both the public and private sector believed GDP growth this year could still be maintained at around 3.5% to 4.5%.

Going forward

Being used now to expect the unexpected, the highly resilient Thai business community was able to scramble quickly back on their feet, albeit not without the usual heartaches, headaches and pains. This time around, the Abhisit government has been quick to provide a timely and comprehensive rescue packages to compensate and help those who were badly hit by the fiery demonstration. An economic take-off, however, would depend very much on our own still-unfinished political power struggle as well as the severity and spill-over of the EU’s sovereign debt problem.

With Thai tourism down on its knees, export would continue to be the country’s key engine for growth this year. Although events of the last two months have been damaging to Thailand’s credibility in the eye of the world, many of our foreign investors and friends have continued to stand unswervingly by us. Their knowledge, patience and understanding about our “family fights” have been most comforting and deeply appreciated.

Flying with doves and hawks

Although the dust has not quite settled, many people were moved to express their deep gratitude to PM Abhisit, for having brought the country back from the brink of anarchy and civil war, albeit not without a great deal of sweat, blood and tears. They have come to appreciate PM Abhisit’s quiet and unassuming leadership, wisdom, patience, endurance and personal sacrifices that were taken for granted by those who could not possibly imagine the magnitude and complexity of his heavy task.

During those dark days, the young PM had bravely walked through hellfire to keep Thailand on the democratic path while endeavoring to end the country’s most violent political uprising, with the least possible casualties and collateral damages, and without any military coup! To keep law and order and bring about reconciliation and healing, he had to battle against “enemies from within” and fight off panicky supporters as well as hawkish critiques. Under so much seen and unseen constraints, Thailand was indeed lucky to have PM Abhisit at the helm during the country’s worst ever political storm.

Professionalism vs. terrorism

Many friends of Thailand have quietly commended the Thai military for having led one of the most faultless peace keeping exercises we have ever seen on 19/5/10. Their strict adherence to international standards and procedures for riot control had gone a long way to end the escalating violence of the armed militants among the red shirts. The military did well also to team up with the government to brief the nation every step of the way about their mission and operations. This was both comforting and reassuring particularly to those who were petrified by the red shirts’ violence, unseen before in this country.

Notwithstanding some biased press reports, most people have come to appreciate the risks that both local and foreign journalists and cameramen took to bring instant news of what was going on to them. Last by not least, the people of Thailand could definitely pat themselves on the back for their own common sense, sensibility, restraint, tolerance, peace loving and forgiving nature, without which Thailand could have easily gone into a civil war mode.

Let us hope and pray that no more life would be cut down so brutally because of bitterness, anger and hatred that were fueled by the greed for power and money, not to mention the revengeful desire, of some sore political losers to destroy even their own motherland!

* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.

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It’s a terrifying sight, once respected minds voicing support for mayhem and death – for rather selective, hardly sane reasons. The leaders of the red shirts were successful at inciting hatred and violence in society, but not that the red cause lost support. The reds are dead. Long live the reds. Now even the “real Thaksin disciple” and political dinosaur Chalerm Yoobamrung is poised to continue the dynasty of the political dinosaurs Samak and Chavalit – a succession not rejected by the true Thaksin converts, but accepted as a sort of “what good guy can survive in the Thai system.”

Well, that’s why those guys make life so hard for a guy who’s not yet as low as them. One can hardly dispute that the Democrats and their powerful hidden backers represent patronizing bullies. But then again, that’s balm for politics compared to an opposition that’s on the brink of intellectual collapse, supported by academic firebrands and hardcore loyalists whose emailed pamphlets, writings and comments suggest you’re ruled by the Butcher of Bangkok, the Pol Pot and Hitler of modern times, by a fascist regime killing the innocent. Worst of it: people keep on repeating and – obviously – believing this nonsense. Even in parliament.

Their choice of strong words reflects the failure of these hardcore reds’ imaginary world, as their attention-grabbing approach by moronizing dissenters has not much to do with the betterment of society. It’s their desperate attempt to pretend strength and get the numbers. But the numbers never added up. So they had to radicalize the remaining few by applying peer pressure and comradeship. Hierarchal obedience yes, but Thai people are not that dumb, stupid. Take our red hero – or “red herring”? – Jatuporn during the censure debate. Lying on live TV about peaceful protest, no weapons and that he submitted pictures of police carrying loads and loads of gasoline into Central World to blow up the place … Jatuporn did not submit a single picture. And red apologists are still not “questioning” him. Outrageous? Now why’s that.

First and foremost, many of the most radical red supporters, especially the farang ones, are not and never were in the line of fire. These keyboard warriors live in the comfort of anonymity with no family in danger and no property about to be blown up. Spectators with no role, just vanity, ridicule and arrogance are their weapons, stuck in an old world of an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth. They’re freaks of time, born into the wrong era – but in reality they’re leeches, the first ones to enjoy the excesses of bustling Bangkok with the big bang for a little buck. Well they say blood is the ingredient of change for that the phoenix can rise from the ashes. That’s so yesteryear. Revolutions are dead. That’s not what Thais want. These are the times of asymmetrical warfare and politics. Or you already forgot how red supporters fled the red protests in masses? Because never ever has Thailand seen dirtier money politics of self-interests at play than during the red mayhem.

There’s legitimate anger, but there’s no more credible red cause, as reds deconstructed themselves. The fairy tale of masses of taxi drivers paralyzing the capital is pulp, the watermelon and tomato revolution was never to materialize. The moment the government interrupted the flow of funds the red bombings stopped. Thais knew all along. But it’s one of those taboos. You just know it. You don’t talk about. Money, money, money, that’s what the red protest was all about in the end. Not only did the reds’ then-spokesman Sean Boonpracong confirm that protesters got a 130,000 U.S. dollars a day – that’s quite some money considering that in the final days a few hundred red diehards were holding out in front of the red stage. A northern couple I spoke to told me they were promised 45,000 baht should the protest “succeed.” After they got tired of the hatred from the stage they soon left back home. According to sources I trust those motorcycle guys who spearheaded the impressive march for democracy were promised 50,000 baht each should the reds triumph over the government. The reds kept detailed account of whom they paid and promised how much.

And what? You did not yet read Father Joe’s related letter?

Dear Everyone

Once again from Bangkok, “after the present troubles.”

All is quiet. The curfew is slowly going away. I believe Saturday will be the final night. Today, Thursday, as I write this, curfew is from midnight till four a.m. The first night, five folks tried to torch different parts of our Klong Toey slum. One by dropping burning material from the express way above the slum. All were doused in minutes. Two of the arsonists were 14-year old kids who had been given a handful of money to throw a petrol bottle bomb anywhere they could, to burn the slum, and if they succeeded, they would get more cash.

The total slum mobilized and kept watch against strangers, and even their own. First time in my forty years here I have seen total unity: no one – absolutely no one will burn – will torch – our slum. And that is the way it was and is. Our kids kept watch also, boys patrolling the street with a couple of slum street motorcycle gangs and the girls up the roof, keeping watch. We don’t have enemies, but our buildings are large, and look flammable, (which they ain’t) but you can do a lot of damage with a petrol bottle bomb!

The loss to this beloved land is beyond counting. For most, all started rather jovial – everyone getting a daily stipend of anywhere from a thousand baht for people on foot, and three to four thousand baht for motorcycles for joining the rallies. A thousand baht is four to five days wages for unskilled labor here in the slums and a bit more in the provinces. But then if you joined the protesters, they took your photo, registered you. That was when it began to unravel.

Then, it all blew up. Huge buildings, banks, shops, homes got torched. Hospitals evacuated. The police were passive, allowing everything to happen. Maybe that’s what they were told to do. I shall not comment on that. I think everyone was “like slapped senseless” by the reality.

What now?

Life goes on. We pick up the pieces. We are most uncertain of a calm tomorrow. We here in the slums, strongly feel this is just the beginning.

The poverty level here in Klong Toey has jumped higher. The port closed for a while. The bars closed, and many of the nighttime working moms of our kindergarten kids had no work – no customers. Street kids went hungry. Most of the slum had and still has no work – no wages. And the long term suffering is just now beginning. More and more people come to us daily for help, to begin their lives again.

Had the protesters won the day, we would now be under dictatorship with lots of folks disappearing. The Law of the Gun. I am reminded of the lyrics of “Keeper of the Song.” Those in power write the history, those who suffer write the songs. Meanwhile, now, children are beginning the new school year – but the corruption goes on, the carpetbaggers go on.

We, and that means almost everyone in Thailand, fear that any new radical government certainly would not be interested in the cost, time and effort necessary to bring about the radical economic changes urgently needed for better equality.

As for us and our children, our family at Mercy Center, thank you for your prayers and concern. Many of you asked how you could help us. I hope that I do not have to put out another letter, urgently asking, begging for your assistance. Right now, today, we are fine, unscathed physically, but emotionally pretty beat up. Some of our neighbors died, both protesters and those in uniform. Death is death.

What started as a red folk festival soon turned into a bought propaganda show of hatred and abuse. Who didn’t want to join! Address genuine grievances! And who didn’t want to leave soon – and still hardcore supporters keep on repeating to this day the red holy mantra of justice and equality and end of double standards … The systematic call to arms and burning and looting is well and broadly documented. You have the right to make a further fool of yourself by denying the obvious, but expect to be treated as a fool. To speak with a certain Buncha Ooraikul, Edmonton:

(Thaksin) encouraged the red shirts to use any tactics, including killing, burning and looting, to topple the present government to pave the way for his return.

The story of Thaksin Shinawatra is one of power, greed and total lack of scruples. He bought his way into the Thai PM office in his first term by buying up MPs from other parties, then used populist policies to win the hearts and souls of the “rural poor” in the most populous northeastern and northern Thailand, resulting in the landslide victory in his second term.

He could have been a great PM by using his business talents to lead Thailand to prosperity with true democracy.

Instead, he ran the country as his own company, buying or getting rid of his opposition or “undesirable” elements, while changing laws to favor his own and his cronies’ businesses.

Now some will still argue nothing’s proven, all’s made up! Election, election, or else!! The shameful prostitution of some bright minds goes even further. They consider as credible that the army torched down Central World and shot at firefighters and emergency personnel. That it’s maybe even the work of Newin, hey that guy knows all the dodges. People were shooting and throwing bombs at those trying to put out the blaze. Thai Rath reported some protesters put guns on firefighters’ heads telling them not to approach Central World. Can red apologetics get more ridiculous? People in the north are fed up, they know, they’ve been deceived by Thaksin. The glorified hardcore red is a tiny minority by now. But we have to take these apologists seriously and talk and debate with them. Otherwise they accuse you of being fascists bullying the disenfranchised majority. They denounce The Nation as biased, but make a parody of themselves by ignoring as a matter of principle what they don’t like. The Nation reports like a subversive polemic paper in comparison by at least not keeping silent about the other side.

I’ve had it with those backseat drivers masquerading as Robin Hood lamenting again and again “But the coup! The military! The Democrats!” If there’s one government in recent Thai history more serious about breaking with the past cycle of military coups, strongmen and self-service governments, it’s the one you have right now. Am not kidding. There are good reasons for not trusting Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, but there are vastly more reasons for not trusting his opponents’ promises. There’s the Office of the Prime Minister’s 14 page position paper detailing the red crackdown, common misconceptions and the prime minister’s reconciliation roadmap. Download it here and save some time for a careful read.

Now if you still think Thailand under the current government is an exotic Uganda with lots of ugly Idi Amins in control, consider the pure democracy of Malaysia, Singapore, Italy, Israel, Germany, the U.K., and and and. The conquest and occupation of the state by private interests is not a Thai exclusivity. The Thai rural poor are not more neglected than the Indonesian or Philippine rural poor, but expectations here are certainly higher because some demagogue promised shortcuts to richness and wealth.

Stop fooling yourself. Opposition is important. This kind of opposition is nothing short of criminal.

And yeah yeah am paid by Suthep. But what a joy it is to see Bangkok coming back alive again. People laughing, dressing up, moving on. He can’t destroy this.

Now with the red protests history and the Abhisit government comfortably surviving the censure debate you can say this:

The red campaign strengthened Abhisit.

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