The Vongthip Letter Aug ‘10

Looking more like 46 now?! With the extra heavy cares and woes that he has been experiencing in the last 20 months, PM Abhisit has certainly matured before our eyes. In 7/10 he was given hell by the yellow shirts for failing to take drastic actions to claim back the land surrounding the Preah Vihear temple. The private sector too was more than frustrated by the (30%) corruption prevailing among his cabinet members and their bureaucrat underlings. Notwithstanding the seemingly quieter political atmosphere, PM Abhisit simply could not go against the CRES’ advice to keep the emergency decree on.

There was constant threat of violence, lurking between isolated small bombing incidents in the city. On 9/7/10 the Election Committee and the Attorney General jointly asked the constitution court to dissolve the Democrat Party for accepting a THB 258 million unlawful donation and for misusing the THB 29 million election-campaign funds in 2006. A wave of panic swept through the Democrats and their voters at the prospect of PM Abhisit being banned from politics for five years. The private sector too was dismayed by the possibility of losing once again the country’s credibility, stability and continuity. Many believed a new PM at this point of time would do more harm than good to the fragile morale and confidence of the people at home and abroad.

Keeping his cool: Notwithstanding the continued threats to unseat him, PM Abhisit went about his business as usual. Healthcare subsidy was increased to THB 2,546 (from THB 2,401) per head. The 7% VAT was extended for another two years until 9/12. The amnesty legislation for illegal war weapon possessors was readied for parliament session in 8/10. The emergency decree was lifted in 28 provinces by end of 7/10. PM Abhisit called on the management of key newspapers to hear their views on media reform and to seek their active support for his reconciliation plan.

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August 6, 2010 | Filed Under Business & Economics, Politics, Property & Investment, The Vongthip Letters | 4 Comments 

The Vongthip Letter July ‘10

Mending the fences: Thanks to FIFA, Thai football fans put away their politically colored shirts to spend sleepless nights watching the World Cup matches in South Africa. News of favorite teams and players dominated most newspapers and TV screens. An avid football fan himself, PM Abhisit has, however, managed to accomplish most of what he had promised. On 7/6/10 he left for half a day trip to Vietnam, to attend the World Economic Forum and meet up with Asean leaders at the Greater Mekong Subregion summit meeting. He took the opportunity to brief world’s business leaders of the current political situation in Thailand and to assure them that his government was taking every possible step to restore law and order while moving the country forward toward national reconciliation.

On 7/6/10 he announced another cabinet reshuffle (5th), with eight new ministers mostly from the Democrat Party. Throughout the month, the Abhisit government continued to address the country’s most urgent economic issues i.e. severe El Nino drought (worst in 18 years) that had delayed rice planting by at least six weeks. The Map Ta Phut environmental problems were finally sorted out, with 18 activities to be banned and clearer rules and regulations to become effective by year-end. After years of frozen salaries, civil servants were granted a special bonus to be paid out in 10/10 and a 5% salary increase to be effective in 4/11.

Farmers’ problem loans too were being refinanced or restructured with hefty haircuts. The first lot of community title deeds was given out. Shooting prices of sugar and eggs were promptly addressed and lowered. Rescue package for those affected by the Ratchaprasong shutdown and arson was fine-tuned and extended to include foreign businesses in the area. To ease the burden of the urban poor, free electricity (max. 90 kw), free (hot) bus, free (third class) train and subsidized LPG, were extended till year end, when PM Abhisit hope to make some of them permanent.

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July 8, 2010 | Filed Under Business & Economics, Politics, Property & Investment, The Vongthip Letters | 12 Comments 

From Million Man To Billion Baht March

Do the math, and it doesn’t look good for either the government and the opposition with the red “class war” exposed as a “cash war.” Authorities claim Thaksin kin transferred the astronomical amount of some 15 billion baht to the red movement within a few days after April 28th, along with the real escalation of the alleged Gandhi-style peace march. What others romanticized as the poor making their voice heard turns out to be – what a bummer for those deceived – Thailand’s most expensive political campaign ever. And let’s set the record straight: Thailand is not one of the most unequal societies; income inequalities are lower than in the most developed nations of the region.

But the red protest was more about hatred than inequalities, wasn’t it. Altogether authorities list transactions amounting to some staggering 122 billion baht gone into red coffers as per the graph further below. Too much, not possibly possible. That would build five airports à la Suvarnabhumi. Shaky figures, maybe money that circulated? The Thaksins still can freely move billions? The amount’s so big Thais don’t even have a word for that number. Calculating in thousands of millions of baht they’re not the only ones left scratching their heads. Thaksin’s son, elder daughter, brother-in-law and youngest sister alone coughed up the equivalent of some 490 million U.S. dollars within a few days.

Innocent unless proven otherwise. Fact is, we all know a lot of money changed hands. The million man march was never to be, but there’s a high probability a multi-billion baht protest was. Still, the Thaksin kin’s 15 billion baht is also the amount expected to be circulated during this World Cup. So nothing out of the ordinary really, aren’t we used to gambling in society also on the political level. You don’t gamble though for the common good. You gamble for money. The billion baht brotest must have made some bros filthy rich. Who would have imagined illicit labor can be that lucrative. And there you have your core followers, leaving the true peaceful democratic reds out in the rain.

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June 18, 2010 | Filed Under Business & Economics, Politics, Property & Investment, The Thai Mind | 15 Comments 

The Vongthip Letter Jun ‘10

Bangkok burning: May was a most agonizing month for the people of Thailand. Hardcore red shirts moved ferociously to expand their territory further into Bangkok CBD. With the number of casualties increasing by the day from snipers and M79 grenades, the Abhisit government declared 17-21/5/10 as public holidays in Bangkok, during which Bangkokians stayed put, bracing themselves for further violence. In the early hours of 19/5/10, the army began their offensive manoeuvres to remove red shirt barricades around the Ratchaprasong area.

By early afternoon, the red shirt leaders announced an end to their demonstration and, before giving themselves up at the police headquarters, urged some 3,000 remaining protesters to go home in government’s prepared coaches. Hundreds of protesters, however, refused to leave. They went instead into the temple next door, Wat Pathum Wanaram, to spend the night. Throughout that afternoon and evening, hard core red shirts together with “men in black” were shooting and throwing M79 grenades at the soldiers.

They roamed the city and set fire to some 36 buildings all over Bangkok. That night, the red shirts also burned down the provincial city halls in Ubon, Udon and Khonkaen. Meanwhile, corporate Bangkok kept their cool as they calmly switched on their emergency systems and went on damage control modes. Meanwhile 43 countries issued their strongest warning against traveling to Thailand. The international community was stunned by the violence, unseen before in this “Land of Smiles.”

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June 4, 2010 | Filed Under Business & Economics, Politics, Property & Investment, The Vongthip Letters | 4 Comments 

Marc Faber On Thaksin’s “Getting Hold Of The Money Pot”

Investment guru Marc Faber needs no introduction. He predicted the Japan bust and saw the gold boom arrive in time. Marc’s a regular on CNBC, Bloomberg TV and the likes. Faber has a reputation for being a contrarian investor and has been called “Doctor Doom” for a number of years. His Gloom Boom & Doom Report is mandatory reading if you want to stay ahead of the game.

Marc’s success has many enviers, still, I haven’t met anyone yet who’s able to prove him more wrong than right. What Marc says is sound and of value. You’re a fool if you call this man biased. He’s never an ideologist, but an observer and based on his analysis he makes his money. Lots of it. His analyses actually consider the interwoven financial and political systems as a cyclic process that started with the Dutch tulip mania of 1637, history’s first large economic bubble.

He rose to fame while working in and from Hong Kong. Since a few years Marc is a resident of Chiang Mai where he built his own beautiful place, he, this enfant terrible among the worlds financial gurus. Marc’s an uncomfortable character, many don’t like his straightforwardness, but they all listen to what he has to say. Let’s hear what he says about the Thai crisis.

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May 25, 2010 | Filed Under Business & Economics, Politics, Property & Investment, Society, The Interview, The Thai Mind | 27 Comments 

The Vongthip Letter May ‘10

Long live HM the King: On 5/5/2010, all warring factions in Thailand called for a truce to take time out to celebrate (in their own way) the 60th anniversary of HM the king’s coronation. Once again HM’s loyal subjects were seen shedding tears of joy as they sat watching their beloved king on TV. Their get-well wishes, prayers and merit makings for HM have indeed borne fruits. HM appeared healthy and strong again during the traditional ceremony to mark the historical occasion at the Grand Palace.

No matter how much people fought with one another, they could never forget HM’s plea for national unity whenever he appeared live on TV. Once again, the people’s faith and pride in their national heritage were restored, and national unity and reconciliation seemed to be back within their grasp! Most Thais bowed their heads to thanked heavens for giving them a loving, selfless and wise king who has always put his country above all else.

Another bloody April: Thailand’s messy political unrest was back on world’s TV screens again this April. When the red shirt failed to show up for the third round of negotiation on 8/4/10, PM Abhisit cancelled his trips to Vietnam (Asean Summit Meeting) and to Washington D.C. (world’s first nuclear summit meeting). A state of emergency was declared in the red shirt zones in Bangkok to contain the ballooning red shirt demonstration. On 9/4 more red shirts joined the protest after the government shut down their PTV. Soldiers guarding Thaicom transmitting station were attacked, disarmed and sent away by scores of ferocious red shirts.

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May 7, 2010 | Filed Under Business & Economics, Politics, Property & Investment, The Vongthip Letters | 7 Comments 

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