Coalition Crumbles – Puea Pandin Joins Opposition?

Puea Pandin never was a “darling party.” But when arithmetics determine political survival, the party led by provincial machine politician Suwit Khunkitti, a former TRT member who has a strong following in the northeastern region, became a welcome bedfellow.

Now Puea Pandin is out – at least partially. Hours before the cabinet reshuffle announced by Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej the Puea Pandin leader threw the towel in a hastily called press conference.

Official reasons being the “misguided priorities of the government,” as the Bangkok Post reports in a decent explainer. “We are concerned about the charter amendments,” said Mr Suwit, apparently staking out an opposition agenda. “We have said that the amendment of the constitution is less important then people’s day-to-day problems.”

If that’s the beginning of Samak’s end? The government got a recent boost thanks to populist and not too unwise economic measures. And if you listen to Bangkok Pundit Suwit’s exit is all but an isolated attempt hardly attracting the support of Chart Thai.

Suwit, the lonely backstabber?

Only the exit of Banharn would mean real trouble for Samak. Only with the biggest coalition partner out of the government a non-confidence vote would become a serious affair for Samak.

Puea Pandin’s exit could on the contrary be Banharn’s gain.

Expect Chart Thai to play a more prominent role in the new cabinet lineup. A more professional lineup? That’s what the speculation is all about. It is widely expected that Samak will bring in non-politicians to help, particularly with the economic posts.

But with Thai politics again resulting in a zero-sum game, Samak can’t afford to play the nation’s saviour. First and foremost he will have to save his own head.

He’ll most likely have to satisfy powerful factions – even though the troubles with Puea Pandin could serve as a lesson. Favoritism at the expense of professionalism has always been a key ingredient of Thailand’s short-lived governments.

The more so as when we recently met Deputy Prime Minister Suwit, we were surprised how Thailand could afford such a minister of industry who didn’t really come across as a minister of industry.

But a look at the core members of Puea Pandin speaks for itself. You’ll find veteran politician and party chairman Vatana Asavahame who is on the run, illustrious Thaksin critic General Pallop Pinmanee and Thaksin’s former foreign minister and wannabe U.N. Secretary General Surakiart Sathirathai who has a reputation of being of an arrogance and vanity second to none.

An indeed complex party. And getting the Industry Ministry’s portfolio doesn’t come cheap in Thailand.

The more intriguing the real forces and motives behind Suwit’s exit. Or threat?