Dr. Saul: Thailand To Tackle World’s Desire Deficit

Dr. Saul Kruggerand, the renowned Ph.D. economist and native of South Africa, who we last heard from with his insightful analysis of the Ratchada “Entertainment” District’s contribution to Thailand’s GNP, returns to give us an informed look at the little noticed Side Agreement Thailand recently signed at the G-20 Meetings in London to help re-stimulate the world economy by taking on the challenge of the World’s Desire Deficit (WDD).

“Dr. Saul,” as he is affectionately called by his students, puts his highly-tuned analytical skills to work on the present dimensions of the World’s Desire Deficit and then follows with a detailed analysis of Thailand’s ambitious and altruistic plan to make a significant contribution to the re-stimulation of world economic growth.

Dr. Saul is himself a Yesbel Laureate with his Ph.D. from the prestigious London School of Economics LSE. Dr. Saul has worked with or along with the World Bank, IMF, Goldman Sachs, AIG Hedge Fund Division and George Soros. A generous grant from the Chuwit Foundation in Bangkok where Dr. Saul is a senior fellow has helped to fund Dr. Saul’s recent studies in this area. And now, without further introduction, here is

By Dr. Saul Kruggerand, Ph.D. Economist, Chuwit Foundation Senior Fellow

In a little noticed but important Side Agreement recently signed at the G-20 Summit in London, Thailand has generously and courageously volunteered to take on more than its fair share of contributing to the re-stimulation of world economic growth by shouldering the important challenge of dealing with the World’s Desire Deficit (WDD).

A Well-Presented Government Spokesperson (WPGS) wearing a nicely fitted suit and tie (a graduate from Oxford apparently and really quite pleasant) told the assembled reporters, “Each country has the obligation to contribute whatever resources, skills and expertise it possesses so that the world’s economy can be collectively re-stimulated as rapidly and forcefully as possible, with full transparency and according to law.”

The WPGS added, “After extensive discussions with the other countries attending the G-20 Summit, it has been agreed that Thailand will assume a major and innovative role in the re-stimulation of world economic growth by mobilizing and leveraging its particularly high level of resources, skills and expertise in the Professional Service Provider Relaxation Sector (PSPRS) to not only address and meet the World Desire Deficit (WDD) but also to create innovative structures and programs which will lead to a sharp increase in overall World Desire Levels (WDL) and then satisfy that significantly higher WDL which will in turn produce immediate and surprisingly significant increases in overall World Economic Activity (WEA) and GNP.”

While a relatively new concept in the Economic Studies Area, the WDD has recently attracted the interest of prominent Economists, Sociologists and Political Scientists and is based on the fairly straightforward idea that as the highly developed societies introduce an ever-increasing number of stringent legal protections into the area of marriage and divorce procedures, in particular previously absent financial requirements for property division, long periods of alimony and child support payments, some millions of marriages throughout the developed world have, in effect, become Financial, Emotional and Sexual Prisons (FESP).

Rather than accept the loss of lifelong savings as well as control and access to a large percentage of their income streams, hundreds of millions of men from the developed countries as well as a smaller number of high-earning, high-asset women, have chosen to avoid the draconian financial costs associated with marriage and divorce and instead are choosing to satisfy the Insatiable Desire Deficit (IDD) in their otherwise barren lives by seeking out the services of Professional Service Providers (PSP), either in their immediate geographic area at, for instance, one of the tens of thousands of Massage and Acupuncture Clinics (MAC’s) which have sprung up throughout the developed world, through the use of Internet Chat Rooms and Internet Searches (ICRIS) or through travel to areas away from their immediate home area, to distant cities and even countries where they can function without being observed and tracked (TTAAFTIHATDCAECWTCFWBOAT), sometimes also referred to under the inaccurate and negative misnomer, Sex Tourism (ST).

While Thailand itself is not yet a fully developed country economically, and there are almost no obligations in regard to alimony, child support or so-called “community property” at present, fortunately Thailand has a well-established and ancient tradition of high level consumption of PSP’s among all strata of the population, regardless of age, income levels or marital status.

In addition, many of the Islamic countries are introducing ever more stringent rules and restrictions on their population’s Desire Levels (DL), leading to a sharp increase in the WDD which in turn gives their populations an obsessive need to make use of PSP’s once they are outside their home countries, especially when they are in Thailand.

Now some would decry this emotional and sexual breakdown in the world’s marriage system and list various negative outcomes to the various adults and children involved. Some might even recommend years of costly therapy for the couples and even their children in an attempt to restore the emotional and sexual vibrancy of these failed marriages and the broken families.

Others might condemn the ancient and long-standing Thai tradition of high level consumption of PSP’s for recreational and entertainment purposes and the negative effect such consumption has on Thai family structures.

Still more might denounce as dysfunctional and unhealthy the Islamic world’s imposition of so many barriers to what some other cultures might consider to be natural and normal human sexuality. There are some who are so extreme, they are mounting campaigns for complete sexual abstinence outside of marriage.

However from an economic development point of view, the breakdown of marriage and the sharp uptick in utilization of the PSPRS sector is very positive trend as it is clear that whereas sexual services provided within marriages or even long term partnerships have a null economic impact, adding nothing to a Nation’s Recorded Economic Activity (REC) and GNP, sexual services rendered by PSP’s have an immediate and tangible economic impact and can make a significant contribution to a Nation and the World’s REC/GNP.

It also should be noted that, in addition to the immediate REC/GNP value of each PSP transaction, there is an Economic Multiplier Effect (EME). For a Non-Import Domestic Transaction (NIDT), studies have shown the EME is about 5 while for a Net Export of Services Transaction (NEST), due to the payment being an Overall Total Net Gain to the National Economy (OTNGNE), the EME is about 20.

Thus for every million USD of NIDT, a country’s REC/GNP increases by 5 million USD and for every million USD of NEST, a country’s REC/GNP shows a gain of 20 million USD.

The Present Situation in Thailand

Before discussing the Thai government’s proposals and the significant projected outcomes that can be anticipated if and when these proposals are implemented, let us first summarize the economic parameters of the present situation in Thailand.

According to exhaustive studies conducted by the Chuwit Foundation staff operating under my personal supervision, at the present time and under the present circumstances Thailand’s PSP Demand/Consumption, breaks down as follows:

In terms of Transaction Volume (TV), approximately 71.13% of PSP transactions involve approximately 23.6 million Thai men between the ages of 17 and 70 who, on average, utilize female PSP services 2.36 times per week or 123 times per year at an average Transaction Exchange Value Including Extras (TEVIX) of 30 USD for an overall REC/GNP contribution of approximately 87 billion USD per year. With the NIDT EME of 5 applied, this equals about 434.5 billion USD per year of REC/GNP.

The 2nd largest volume of PSP transactions (12.35% of the overall total) involve men and women from not only Thailand but also the rest of the world who utilize the services of Thai Ladyboy PSP’s. This includes 4 million or so Thai citizens who seek the services of Ladyboy PSP’s an average of 2.3 times per week at an average TEVIX of 40 USD, about 350,000 of Thailand’s 11 million visitors per year, especially Muslim visitors from Iran and the Islamic countries as well as Germans and South Asians (many of whom are drawn to Thailand solely to interact with Ladyboy PSP’s who they utilize at an astonishing average of 8.4 times per week at a TEVIX of 70 USD), and finally about 150,000 foreigners of various nationalities resident in Thailand on whose behalf Thai Ladyboy PSP’s provide service an average of 2.5 times per week at a TEVIX of 50 USD.

Altogether, from these three consumption groups, the Ladyboy market segment of the Thai economy generates approximately 20.5 billion USD of direct revenues per year, 19.1 billion of NIDT with an EME of 5 and 1.3 billion of NEST with an EME of 20, for an overall REC/GNP contribution of 122.23 billion USD.

The 3rd largest volume of PSP transactions (11.46% of the total) take place in the Gay and Lesbian area, again divided into three basic markets, the 6 million or so Thai Gays and Lesbians who average 1.4 PSP transactions per week at a TEVIX of 40 USD, about 1.2 million Gay and Lesbian ST visitors who average 5.6 PSP transactions per week at a TEVIX of 60 USD, and an estimated 150,000 resident foreigner Gays and Lesbians who average 2.5 PSP transactions per week at a TEVIX of 50 USD.

That makes for about 17.47 billion USD of NIDT revenue with an EME of 87.36 billion USD and about 16.1 billion NEST revenue with an EME of 32.1 billion USD for an overall REC/GNP contribution of 119.49 billion USD.

The 4th largest volume of PSP transactions that benefit Thailand’s economy is from the Remittance area which requires large numbers of Thai PSP’s (about 100,000) to live outside of Thailand. In the U.S., Japan, UK and Germany, about 15,000 each. In Italy, Scandanavian and Hong Kong, about 7,000 each. In Taiwan, Korea and the United Arab Emirates/Kuwait, about 5,000 each. And finally Macau, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Netherlands with another 19,000 between them.

Altogether these approximately 100,000 overseas PSP’s average slightly under 100 million PSP transactions per year (2.45% of the overall total of Thailand’s approximately 4.1 billion PSP transactions per year), they work under the most demanding of circumstances and are required to make great personal sacrifices. Brutally exploited by ruthless agent/recruiters, trafficker/smugglers, corrupt authorities and brothel owner/dealers, and despite the many excesses of their indentured debt/bondage situation these heroic and hard-working PSP’s nevertheless manage to retain some earnings and on average remit back to Thailand about 50 percent of the amount they retain. A total of 1.67 billion USD of NEST with an EME of 20 for an overall total contribution to the Thai economy of 33.4 billion USD per year.

While the above 4 market segments generate 97.39 percent of the Thailand related PSP transaction volume per year and approximately 84.86 percent of the PSP revenue contribution to the overall Thailand REC/GNP after the appropriate EME’s are applied, ten other smaller market segments also are important, not only in terms of their present contribution but also in terms of their Realized Rates of Return (RRR) and how these RRR’s can help us determine the best path to follow for future development and expansion.

In terms of PSP transaction volume, the largest of these smaller segments (1.06% of the overall PSP transaction volume) is the Farang group, generally defined as persons of non-Asian origin from Europe, North and South America and Australia. Approximately 3 million male Farang visitors per year who remain in Thailand for an average of 11 days each, engaging in approximately 5 heterosexual PSP transactions per week at a TEVIX of 70 USD, a total of 1.65 billion USD NEST with an EME of 20 for a total REC/GNP contribution of 33 billion USD.

In addition to the visitor Farang group, there is a significant group of resident Farang, about 150,000, which averages 2.5 PSP transactions a week with an average TEVIX of 50 USD, for a total of 975 million USD NEST, again with an EME of 20 for an overall contribution to REC/GNP of 19.5 billion USD.

The next most significant market (0.57% of the overall PSP transaction volume) are the resident group of hi-income Japanese, about 95,000, and hi-income male and female visitors from Japan, about 600,000 per year each one remaining in Thailand an average of 5.6 days, all of them including the females, averaging 4.3 PSP transactions per week at an average transaction cost of 70 USD for a total NEST of 1.63 billion USD with an EME of 20 for an overall REC/GNP total of 32.6 billion USD.

Malaysians comprise the next market segment (0.255%) providing an average of 100,000 male ST visitors each weekend, almost entirely into the southern Thailand border region, especially the city of Hat Yai which has a highly developed infrastructure custom designed for Malaysian ST’s with tens of thousands of hotel rooms and thousands of PSP venues of every variety catering to the three major demand areas, heterosexual, ladyboy and gay. Even with an average TEVIX of only 30 USD, the NEST generated totals 312 million USD with an EME of 20 for an overall contribution to REC/GNP of 6.24 billion USD.

Further down the list, the remaining 7 market segments comprising 0.72% of Thailand’s overall PSP transaction volume are: Korea, Taiwan, various Arabs, South Asians, Mainland Chinese, Hong Kong and Singapore. A total NEST of 1.76 billion USD with an EME of 20 for a total contribution to REC/GNP of 35.24 billion USD.

To summarize, the Thai economy is presently generating about 4.1 billion PSP transactions per year with direct TEVIX revenues of about 132.76 billion USD per year which once the NIDT and NEST EME calculations are made, contribute a grand total of approximately 836.2 billon dollars to Thailand’s annual REC/GNP.

While these may seem to be impressive sums, the proposals that have been put forth by the Thai WPGS, if and when they are implemented, in my considered opinion, have the potential to dramatically stimulate WDL which, when satisfied, will produce sharply increased levels of REC/GNP, not only for Thailand, but if emulated elsewhere, for the entire world economy.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed here represent the author’s and are entirely from his own experience. Furthermore, they do not necessarily reflect the views of the the people who live in the author’s hemisphere and the individual letters, words and punctuation marks involved had no option but to be placed into the story, and should not be held accountable for the author’s statement. Any spelling or grammatical errors are not the responsibility of the schools the author attended, the teachers the author was taught by, the regional governments who did or did not fund the author’s educational system, or anyone else involved in the author’s life.)




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June 19, 2009 | Filed Under Business & Economics, Dr. Saul, Health, Body & Mind, Nightlife & Entertainment, Seriously, Not ..., Society, Travel & Tourism 

Comments

4 Responses to “Dr. Saul: Thailand To Tackle World’s Desire Deficit”

  1. MongerSEA on June 19th, 2009 1.37 pm

    Brevity is the soul of wit, Dan.

  2. BangkokDan on June 19th, 2009 5.39 pm

    The Dr. takes much pride in his work.

    A thoroughbred academic going mainstream is always a balancing act.

    I mentioned exactly this issue, he wouldn’t listen, just a weary smile.

    BangkokDan

  3. whoopla on June 19th, 2009 6.18 pm

    Maybe I should puff from a narghile to enable concentration on absorbing this …

  4. Dr. Saul: Thailand & The Desire Economy on January 26th, 2010 11.22 pm

    [...] renowned Ph.D. economist and native of South Africa, who we last heard from in his article titled Thailand to Tackle World’s Desire Deficit in which he outlined the present economic structure of Thailand’s Desire Sector (DS) along with [...]

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