From Million Man To Billion Baht March
Do the math, and it doesn’t look good for either the government and the opposition with the red “class war” exposed as a “cash war.” Authorities claim Thaksin kin transferred the astronomical amount of some 15 billion baht to the red movement within a few days after April 28th, along with the real escalation of the alleged Gandhi-style peace march. What others romanticized as the poor making their voice heard turns out to be – what a bummer for those deceived – Thailand’s most expensive political campaign ever. And let’s set the record straight: Thailand is not one of the most unequal societies; income inequalities are lower than in the most developed nations of the region.
But the red protest was more about hatred than inequalities, wasn’t it. Altogether authorities list transactions amounting to some staggering 122 billion baht gone into red coffers as per the graph further below. Too much, not possibly possible. That would build five airports à la Suvarnabhumi. Shaky figures, maybe money that circulated? The Thaksins still can freely move billions? The amount’s so big Thais don’t even have a word for that number. Calculating in thousands of millions of baht they’re not the only ones left scratching their heads. Thaksin’s son, elder daughter, brother-in-law and youngest sister alone coughed up the equivalent of some 490 million U.S. dollars within a few days.
Innocent unless proven otherwise. Fact is, we all know a lot of money changed hands. The million man march was never to be, but there’s a high probability a multi-billion baht protest was. Still, the Thaksin kin’s 15 billion baht is also the amount expected to be circulated during this World Cup. So nothing out of the ordinary really, aren’t we used to gambling in society also on the political level. You don’t gamble though for the common good. You gamble for money. The billion baht brotest must have made some bros filthy rich. Who would have imagined illicit labor can be that lucrative. And there you have your core followers, leaving the true peaceful democratic reds out in the rain.
Authorities ask 86 blacklisted individuals and companies have to prove their innocence. So far during these turbulent years Thaksin’s children were left off the hook, but if daddy manages to implicate them this time, well that would ridicule his regretful claim the other day that he’d better never have entered politics. It is furthermore unclear if Thaksin’s children and (former) wife have returned to Thailand since the fled the country on April 29th, right when the massive red rally funds started moving. How to defend themselves?
For the future, if you wanna stay safe, just observe if key players stay here in solidarity with their people – or if they have better things to do. Just move along with the Thaksins. Their fleeing is a more reliable indicator of trouble ahead than any know-it-all analysis.
Finally, the real amount spent for and during the red rally shouldn’t be much different from the costs of an election win in Thailand’s venal democracy. Is the protest an investment gone sour? I’d euphorically say yes. But as a rule of thumb Thaksin will keep quiet for a few weeks before he’s back again – as if nothing ever happened – championing the virtues of freedom and democracy.
But then again, Thailand may be a changed place since Black May 2010. The recent red mayhem has no parallel in Thai history. Don’t make a fool of yourself trying to compare May 19th, 2010, to Thailand’s other black anniversaries of 1973, 1976 and 1992 when people died on the streets for democracy. It has become clear as daylight this is no fight between yellow and red. People died for Thaksin.
(Source: Bangkok Post)
Do the math? Where exactly have these numbers come from?
http://us.asiancorrespondent.com/bangkok-pundit-blog/plucking-figures-out-of-thin-air
It seems you’ve clearly made your mind up about things these days – and anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool? Shame.
(BD: It’s simple really, if you followed this blog for some time you know when I made an “adjustment.” The red shirts, like this, with these leaders and the poor as pawns, stand for the bigger evil. Can’t possibly support that.)
Guess we have to wait and see what’s left of these figures after the initial brouhaha.
As for BP, he always, reflexively, goes for counterbalance. Bad news for the red crowd? BP manages to discredit facts and figures.
Discussions with no end really – trying to counterbalance the counterbalance leads straight into the entrapments of Thai politics.
And just checked the link you mentioned KOC. Other than emotional no facts – what’s the denial supposed to prove?
Well, there never is an end in politics, so I don’t expect the discussion to end anytime soon.
As for the link, it’s not trying to prove anything … which I think is the point.
Maybe I am too cyncically inclined, but I’d rather read discrediting reports that question things on both sides, than affirmative one-sided editorials.
Cheers
Pundit put up his blog three days before the numbers were released, still semi-officially, in the Bangkok Post.
At that time it was all summed up in one big number – 150 gazillion or whatever, which looked outlandish.
One thing is sure – it didn’t come out of thin air but rather from an attempt to express hundreds if not thousands of transactions in one sentence.
This is an inherent problem of economics and statistics – there’s too much data and you can present it in any way you like if you put enough effort. Thailand’s inequality is the worst in the region, it’s better than of its neighbors, it’s better than U.S., it’s worse than the U.S. – it’s like blind men feeling up the elephant, many of them being perverts to begin with.
Whichever way you calculate the sums, the truth is a lot of money has changed hands. An awful lot, I’d say.
Some question why almost a hundred names were erased from the original list and whether they bought off the investigators.
Well, that’s always a possibility, but it is more likely, IMO, that they snitched on others in exchange for either freedom or at least anonymity, as the full list is still not officially published and Anupong still hasn’t signed it off.
Don’t forget the main thing – someone paid for the rally and so far DSI has come up with the best explanation where the funding come from.
Two day deadline to explain yourself is brilliant – you can’t come up with a convincing lie in such a short time. Where did you take 600 million in cash you loaded on the truck? Can you give a good answer to that? I can’t.
Well, we’ll see. Especially loved Dr. Weng’s wife’s song and dance how those 1.4 million baht ended up on here hubby’s account the same time other red key figures received larger amounts:
Now that’s pure altruism. Must be the first land transfer in Thai history not paid upfront.
And StanG, found this in an older PostBag:
BangkokDan
BD – congratulations on creating such a catchy headline. Unfortunately, things fall apart rather rapidly after that.
Could you point out where in the Post article I’ll find anything to the effect that “Authorities claim Thaksin kin transferred the astronomical amount of some 15 billion baht to the red movement within a few days after April 28th”? I see references to the money going out – but no mention of a destination …
Good that you add a “read the comments” note to the News Feed listing for the Post’s article. I particularly recommend #66 from “Sceptic” – someone prepared to “do the math” as you suggest:
Talking of “Do the math” – have you? I ask because you also say “Altogether authorities list transactions amounting to some staggering 122 billion baht gone into red coffers as per the graph further below.” Now I managed to run my own company for 25 years without ever becoming much of an accountant, but even in my most delusional bouts of wishful thinking I knew better than to count the same figures twice – i.e. both deposits and withdrawals – to arrive at a total. And, again, I don’t see evidence in the article or graph[ic] of a destination for this erroneously-arrived-at figure or anything remotely close to it …
You’re plainly entitled to your view that Thaksin & Co. financed the protest from the first plate of somtam to the last M79 fired by a blackshirt, but I suggest that a little less wishfully-thought 2+2=5 creative accounting might lend at least some credibility to your expression of it.
BTW, any comment on how the graph[ic] manages to supply over a dozen “Total transactions” figures with only “na” listed for “Deposits” and “Withdrawals”?
There’s no way Shinawatras can transfer that much money out of the country.
Even 1.5 billion baht is still a huge amount of money, roughly 50 milliion dollars, a cool million dollars per day.
I personally like “cash war” in Dan’s post.
The spending spree by the Shinawatras and friends before and leading to the Black May 2010 had created quite a buzz indeed. Thaksin had always had a reputation as “The ATM Machine” during elections. But did Thaksin and family and friends really do into mad “spending” during the Black May 2010 that had drawn the DSI suspicions?
When I say “mad,” I mean shopping for among other things (a) M79s, RPG and assault rifles; (b) the million one-liter bottles promised for every Isaan man and woman joining the million man march; (c) uniforms and ammo for the “Ronin-in-black” militia; (d) 100 million baht pay-off to red leaders and mad generals like Khattiya and Pallop; (e) Fortuner SUVs and pick-up trucks to the hardcore red lieutenants; and (f) petty cash fund aplenty for Klong Toey thugs for the arson party.
A diligent bookkeeper was the undoing of Al Capone. Will bookkeeping too finally undo Thaksin Shinawatra?
(BTW … over at New Mandala, Andrew Walker believes Thaksin Shinawatra should receive a Nobel prize for his Black May 2010 “income redistribution to the reds” spending spree. With Andrew Walker, one could never be sure whether he was merely being fanciful or serious on such matters).
While we’re on the subject of figures, it’s as well to use up to date ones – even if they’re not quite so reassuring …
From your “older PostBag”:
From the 2009 UNDP report*:
Granted “Lies, damned lies and statistics” etc. – the report’s “CONFRONTING PERSISTENT INEQUALITY” section (starting page 78) provides necessary context and detail.
Your conclusion is rock-solid, but you don’t go as far as you should. Obviously, the total sum of deposits and withdrawals in the table add up to 122 billion baht. Why stop ad just summing up deposits and withdrawals? We know Thais do double-accounting, so let’s multiply it all by 2 to get cool 244 billion. Now square it, just because you can (makes about as much sense as adding up deposits and withdrawals). All that to finance the red menace. QED.
Actually according to the latest figures from the UNDP Global Development Report 2009, Thailand’s level of inequality as measured by Gini Coefficient stands at 42.5 which is same as Singapore (42.5) and lower than Hong Kong (43.4), Mexico(48.1), Chile (52), Venezuela (43.4), Brazil (55), Turkey (43.2).
And as measured by the gap between richest 10% to poorest 10% of population, Thailand’s figure stands at 13.1, which is lower than that of U.S. at 15.9, U.K. at 13.8, Singapore at 17.7, Hong Kong at 17.8, Portugal at 15, Chile at 26.2, Mexico at 21, Venezuela at 18.8, Brazil at 40.6, Turkey at 17.4.
Figures taken from:
http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2009_EN_Complete.pdf
(see page 195 onwards)
Little point in going into the details but enough to say the only people who will be surpirised that it takes huge amounts of cash to get a moderate sized demo in BKK are those that don’t understand how Thai polticis work or who believe the memes created by the reds and their hangers on and cheer boys.
Let’s not forget the mastermind has a PHD in criminology. It’s true they couldn’t nail Al Capone till some deligent accountant had him on tax dodging. If this is Suthep’s move, let’s wait till next week and just hold your breath. Remind you of Banharn’s luggages of banknotes for land deal in nominees’ names and Thaksin’s honest mistakes of hidden assets. So, those carloads of hard cash are fishy stuffs. Small wonder the Pojaman-Thaksin party put the by-election in Bangkok on hold. They must be burning midnite lamps manufacturing honest figures for those accounts. I have seen the many grin-and-bear of Thaksin’s angular face. TRT, PPP, PAD and all the court verdicts were more G-A-BS. All for milking the country big time by bending the law for himself and cronies.
When I predicted that Thaksin would one day be the PM of Thailand, all my students had a good laugh. He just failed to solve the traffic problem as promised and did not resign from a ministerial post as promised. Some phu yai baan in my Isaan village still fondly remembers him for the hard cash he gave them. They are still red-shirted sympathizers because of his. So, 30 billion baht is sufficent for victory of a election. During his second in 2005 he won the election with a big margin. I went to a TRT 20,000 baht/family loan ceremony in the outskirts of Bangkok. He was there to hand out the cash to a Democrat stronghold constituency. I believe the villagers were swayed by his one sentence after the cash were in the villagers’ hands: “Do you want me to come back here?” It was a thunderous “YES!” The movement of hard cash can mean anticipation of an election and stringent control of withdrawal from bank accounts prior to an election. Therefore, lots of money lies buried somwhere in Thailand.
I believe he will be assassinated even if he running the country from Chiang Mai. Chalerm salvaged the morale of the red shirt by saying he would play second fiddle if they win the election. He can run Thailand from the modified Preah Viharn temple complex under Somdej Hun Sen’s protection.
All his more promises? All your debt will be written off and each family in the countryside will be given a lump sum of cash. All school children will be given a laptop. This is what he said literally in Thai: Democracy you can eat.
Chalerm promised that he would change the constituition, pardon Thaksin, make him the PM, and Chalerm would be minister of interior. This is romantic and more so than Dr. Weng and Jaran’s communist dreams put together! The Pojaman-Thaksin party victory will be won via the Isaan. The Isaan folks are laid back people. They don’t care how bad you smell, just come with lots of freebies. And they will drink and dance mo larm to all goodies you dish out! Strategy of the Democrats is both populist and welfare programs. Demographic transition perspective has been tried by the Democrats. What about windfalls to all local administrators down to local canvassers. Locals have to invest a few hundred thousand baht to land on some local administrator post for a couple of thousand baht remuneration. But that gives them a chance to put their corruptive hands in the cookie jar. Money makes the village go round and round. I also talk of village schools where the school will let off early so that ajahn can drink to some successful kickbacks. Quite a lot of cash flows to teachers’ hands because parents listen to teachers. 50% of the village votes, mothers, will drink to that too and dance mor larm hired to celebrate the party victory. Newin Chidchob knows it very well. MoI and MoT of Newin Chidchob are special and untouchable! He holds the keys to Democrats victory if the ammart can dish out a sizable sum to him. In Thai politics, there are almost no permanent enemy. All of Thaksin’s buried money will be out to do his bidding on the election. True democracy in Isaan is a few minutes before the casting of the vote for many. Then it will be like a lottery win, the number of the politician. Cash is given if that particular politician wins. The votes holds a few cards. Stolen fruit tastes sweeter!
What surprises me is the PR all that money bought and all the kool aid that has been downed with it.
Anyone that believes for a second that the rural poor organized and paid for this long ass protest on their own is clueless.
Thaksin used the rural poor yet again to his own ends and will do so again and again. Thaksin has enough money to do this twenty times over and the only real surprise will be when he succeeds and people finally wake up to reality.
Talad Nut (mobile market) does brisk business after every election that fielded defunct TRT and PPP in the NE. His network of canvassers will show up and promise an amount if his men win plus a small slip of paper and where to make the claim. This coming election will be the dirtiest in Thailand since the end of the absolute monarchy until today! 24th June 1932. Lots of blood and money in the crucial Isaan. Beef price could be double and alcohol sold out. Walker is correct about the noble winning chance for income redistribution. What about having a general election every two months! For the law bender he will do fine. And he could have Snoh Thiengthong’s classic “Jurassic” idea to print more banknotes to fund his Pojaman-Thaksin party. All the handshakes of his MPs will literally shake the country’s confidence and beyond/intrinsic value of “bahts.”
(BD: My take exactly that whatever happens until next general elections, they’ll be the dirtiest money politics ever. Or wait … isn’t the beef the 83 red financiers?)