Golden Verdict

It’s the best of possible outcomes to avert further mayhem. It’s no guarantee against further mayhem, but no side can claim victory and no side can pretend total defeat after the Thai Supreme Court’s handing down of a partial seizure of fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra’s frozen 76 billion baht. The state gets 46 billion plus plus, the remainder of some 30 billion baht shall go back to Thaksin. “Probably the best possible solution among all,” as someone said. A compromise à la Thai; a decision that will not really please the government, but appease some anti-government forces.

The split in society is reflected by the verdict. People can take a break for the time being. Just don’t ask how they wanna hand over those nearly 900 million dollars to a fugitive – the verdict’s a trap? Seriously, the money’s not yet paid out, but in his live address following the seven-hour reading of the verdict a somber Thaksin repented his stubbornness to ever have entered politics and he thanked his supporters for not protesting in front of the court house. Yes, he slams the “political verdict.” Many lost everything in Thailand. He could have. The verdict may well signal a turnaround in Thai politics. Things seem to settle down. Part of Thaksin’s argument is gone.

The verdict is the expected compromise – a clear sign that well Thaksin, you’re guilty of everything, but here you go you crook, get your billion. You’re not only guilty. The judges used the words it would be “not fair” to confiscate the whole lot – a criminal deserving leniency? The fugitive’s not too guilty after all? The rules of the game change constantly and quickly, but it’s safe to say I think that the groundwork is laid for the next, more mature phase of the conflict: the long-awaited, so difficult mutual convergence. It will take time, but this verdict was necessary for it.

Still, Thaksin’s staunchest enemies are not the Democrats, but the formerly loyal partners now enabling the coalition. A partial confiscation of the Thaksin family’s assets in Thailand marks a legitimation of the coup and all the legal framework. But Thaksin, a tad relieved to not lose it all, goes a step further: tells his supporters to fight peacefully and to not cause the government any trouble. Yes, the calculated share value is not fair, all shares increased during his premiership. And Thaksin may still his double-tongued game, wavering between anger and self-chastisement. Or he really put down his anger and realized that the only way for change comes with time – and time, sooner or later, is on his side.

The verdict’s painfully detailed. It’s the country’s highest court, there’s no appeal, so chances are even higher nobody dares to challenge the ruling. In this sense peaceful Judgement Day is indeed a judgement day. A day looking beyond division. A day granting the fugitive some justice and denying the rulers complete control over the justice system. A day of restoring confidence some soft of confidence in the system. Well yes it’s robbery. But moving forward has to be based on realpolitik, on politics of the possible. We got a hint of judicial independence. The government’s not only happy with the verdict. Not only Thaksin has to compromise.

But then again, a flood of further cases is likely to follow. There may be a deal, yes, but more likely is the fact that Thaksin will never ever get back a single satang.