Hunted Thaksin’s Masterplan?

Not that Thailand has a history of respecting extradition treaties. Look at the foot-dragging exercises surrounding the extradition atempts of accused Russian arms dealer Victor Bout. Thailand is generally quick to act when her or the reputation of her powers that be are at stake. So what about extradition attempts to catch Thaksin Shinawatra and his “former” wife Pojaman, once the kingdom’s second couple and both sentenced to years in a Thai jail.

Don’t expect the “ordeal” of the de facto stateless refugees to end anytime soon. The former strongman doesn’t only fear assassins. Thaksin is very aware that he has to plan his movements meticulously. Even though he loudmouthedly announced his return to Thai politics on December 13th via another satellite address, one wrong stopover somewhere around the world and those handcuffs may click.

That is, if a power that be or invisible hand want him back … The man’s safe for now, prepares for a virtual war via proxies and won’t rest until he gets his frozen, seized, stolen or whatever you wanna call them billions back. “It appears that he will come back fighting, overtly and aggressively,” the Straits Times‘ Nirmal Ghosh wrote. Just don’t expect his physical coming back. So … what is he up to?

Proxies are readily available, even previously unthinkable ones, widening Thaksin’s arsenal of options. Take his meeting on November 7th in Beijing with Pallop Pinmanee the “raises the possibility of a deadly tactic being openly employed in Thailand’s protracted political conflict – the frenemy,” as the Bangkok Post reported.

By turning one of the PAD’s most unequivocal backers into “to his camp,” the Post went on, “Thaksin not only erodes the PAD’s strength but also sows the seeds of fear and paranoia among his enemies in the same stroke, because General Pallop is a holder of many sensitive secrets.”

This move, if true, shows the very nature of alliances in Thai politics. Loyalty around here has a substantial price tag attached and usually follows the highest bidder. With his ingeniously profitable sale of Man City FC Thaksin’s war chest remains strong. Add his recent strategic divorce from wife Pojaman and his new Building a Better Future-Foundation and you got a strange mix between saint-cum-warrior who has nothing to lose.

Add furthermore the recent escalation at Govt House with previously announced nightly bomb attacks with the PAD announcing a final final mass rally to oust the “nominee killer government” – while the controversial general recommends protesters to better book a temple for their own funeral.

“There’s a very high risk of the violence increasing,” political analyst Chris Baker told Bloomberg. “Protesters have been talking about civil war for the last month and pro-government people have been threatening to bomb the PAD encampment, so this is what has been promised.”

Whatever action plans are currently drawn in the political underbelly of Bangkok and in Thaksin’s exile, the former strongman will carefully avoid being associated with violence or anti-institutional forces. But it may get seriously ugly around here before it gets any better.

Thailand hasn’t seen a conflict of this nature yet. Thailand’s political infighting is generally characterized by plump maneuvering and outright graft. This conflict goes down to the fundamentals of the kingdom. Compromise, the classic Thai way to settle disputes, wouldn’t compensate any longer for all the accumulated hatred it seems.

Wounded lions on all sides. If the impunity-preaching movement of the PAD doesn’t just fizzle out, something big must happen and most probably will happen to clear the ground before the kingdom can slowly but finally move forward again.

But keep in mind, as with other quiet and violent revolutions around the world in the name of vanities and greed, one day monuments are erected for yesterday’s traitors, while yesterday’s heros are torn down.

Let Thailand spare herself this repetition of history.