Now More Than Ever? Abhisit’s FCCT Address

As if no year has passed our dear prime minister took the stage at this year’s annual address to the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand FCCT. The road ahead continues to be tough, Premier Abhisit Vejjajiva said in the Intercontinental’s Grand Ballroom. But – speaking of himself – “last year’s determination and promises continue to be in place,” thereby laying the foundation for economical, social and political progress.

Well, leaving much of this government leader’s obligatory and not undeserved self-promotion and -praise aside, there were many laughs and even applause in the audience. Wit is clearly a strength of the charmer. Listening to Abhisit makes me feel good living in this beautiful, well organized place. But reality kicks in quickly when being reminded by Khun Mark’s enchanting Oxford accent that this very grandness sounds as artificial in Thailand as his promises of the rule of law.

“What might be called reconciliation” the premier mentioned twice. He’s not gonna sacrifice the rule of law just to please his opponents. Fair enough. And he offers early elections, but the three conditions he’s laying down for a general election are bubble gum conditions. He demands 1) a stable economy, 2) all parties must adhere to the rules of an election and exclude fraud, and 3) all sides must prove that they’re “committed to the spirit of true democracy.” Textbook honesty from all sides.

Abhisit’s more confident, more comfortable than a year ago. But not sure if we heard a leader at the FCCT event. What we heard was a well versed orator insisting again and again that he’s on the side of the people, nation, law and the courts. He’s confident that his Democrats will do better in elections than last time, but there’s a possibility of a hung parliament again, Abhisit says. Whatever side wins, he will accept the results.

Still, he “can’t say he’s satisfied with everything his government has done. But politics shall not get in the way of us working for the people” … Well isn’t governing all about politics, by definition a process by which groups of people make decisions?

And leave the king alone, Abhisit was basically saying. Don’t rely on HM to intervene in times of difficulty. Well, who again politicized the crown?

And his government will press ahead with the construction of roads, rail and 3G networks … roads maybe.

Still, he knows his trade. Confronted in the Q&A with the absurdity of Thailand’s prohibitive, if not ridiculous alcohol laws he said in disarming clarity state authorities have to uphold the law. Wether to change the law is a different issue.

And he won’t rule out violence leading up to the Thaksin asset seizure verdict. “We do anticipate” violence. Sounded like an acknowledgement Thaksin’s already found guilty.

Ah, and the lèse majesté cases. There’s “progress and change,” assures Abhisit. The law may have been too liberally interpreted and abused. But none of last year’s cases was yet forwarded to a court. And some argue that the law’s still interpreted far too relaxed. His government is waiting for clear guidance to be issued soon. A lot of cases will soon be cleared, we’re told.

A year into his office still of the same candor, patience and tolerance as when opposition leader … Chapeau premier, nice presentation. Wish you well and luck.

But something, dear Mr. Prime Minister, something just does not sound right. Some things don’t add up. You’re a Thai anomaly.

Don’t forget, if you’d truly respect the ideals of democracy and the rule of law you’re always preaching, if you’d truly respect those you wouldn’t be in power.

Sore loser? Your opponent?


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34 Responses to “Now More Than Ever? Abhisit’s FCCT Address”

  1. Jaded says:

    Lets see. To sum up your report the man is a charmer … If you are not nice to this guy who is nice to you what are the likely consequences? I wonder.

    I have been reading Robert Harris novels recently and I have to say that Abhisit reminds me a bit of young Caesar as described by Harris … Like the old Roman Republic, Thailand’s democracy has faced a number of severe crises over the last few years. At the moment it continues to struggle on, despite the handicap of a constitution that was imposed by a coup d’état and an overbearing presence in the background that threatens to seize power if the interests of the plutocratic elite and its military enforcers are not fully protected … If, god forbid, there was to be a power vacuum in Thailand who would the people respect more? The old style dicatorship backed up by force or … some new paradigm perhaps? Reading Harris may excellent prep for understanding the fragility of the current regime and the likely options in the event of its replacement …

    Oh, he’s a charmer alright …

  2. At one point, a long time back now, I thought Abhisit may be the answer for Thailand.

    But the more I hear him the more I understand that he talks the talk but his actions have no substance. “If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull.” W. C. Fields

    When you combine Abhisit with his trusty sidekick Suthep it’s the Thai version of Abbott and Costello who’s on first.

  3. A Reader says:

    He wasn’t a tad embarrassed that the FCCT itself is still being charged with lèse majesté.

    Or the poor woman in prison with the dental abcess is being denied medical treatment in order to increase her suffering and remorse.

    Or that the justice system is so riddled with double standards and corruption that it has lost any credibility it may or may not have actually had with the majority of Thai people and all knowledgeable farangs (aside from StanG of course whose infinite faith in the goodness of the status quo is truly inspiring!),

    Or that Surayad’s real estate deal leniancy depends on “lack of intent to break the law” while Thaksin’s wife’s real estate deal actually did not break any laws until one was written up after the fact, etc. etc. etc. …

    It sounds like FCCT was running a hi-end Japanese hostess bar where everything was silky and wonderful until the Japanese guys ran out of money …

  4. BangkokDan says:

    Fact is, I fear, the recent hardline interpretation of lèse majesté laws is in complete, consistent and logical accordance to the state of reactionary shifts and tendencies – be they forced upon – within Thai society. The laws, in current Thailand, and the implementation thereof make complete sense.

    BangkokDan

  5. [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Jon Russell and BangkokDan, tri kanchanadul. tri kanchanadul said: RT @BangkokDan: (BLOG) Now More Than Ever: Abhisit’s FCCT Address http://bit.ly/7cS8LQ [...]

  6. Jaded says:

    Perhaps whoopla’s comment could be echoed here?

    I mean isn’t a prostitute someone who tells you what they think you want to hear, pretends to care about what you think and disimulates to convince you of their sincerity while all the time serving the interests of their abusive partner/mafia pimp/exploitative family/social network etc., etc., …

    Perhaps those who attended the event last night were there for a drink, something to eat and a little entertainment. I hope it’s not the case that the FCCT membership loves the company of Thailand’s political whores but personally I don’t think my stomach is strong enough for these people.

  7. BangkokDan says:

    You have every right to detest and despise your enemy Jaded.

    Try to embrace him. Or her.

    Read his/her mind, intentions, motivations.

    Infiltrate.

    Everyone I know of who meets Abhisit likes the man. And I must say I recently met our now internationally decorated finance minister.

    Korn’s a highly impressive man, and not just by his appearance. This man’s tall!

    You can argue about the content or value of such – as you put it – political whores.

    Those are no stupid people. Many may be. Not all of them. Especially not Abhisit.

    BangkokDan

  8. Jaded says:

    Well I hadn’t actually considered stupidity as sufficient to explain his role as an apologist for official Thailand. Cupidity, mendacity, veniality … These would be the sort of terms that spring to mind when I watch him glossing yet another gross violation of human rights. The argument goes that the behavior of these unaccountable people would be much worse without his government. I strongly disagree. The ineptitude and incompetence of the military appointed post coup government shows clearly that managing modern Thailand is beyond the competence of the authoritarians. Just as before they turned to Anand for technical competence while engaging in outrageous behavior, now Abhisit and his sidekick Korn have become their enablers. If Abhisit has no control over the propensities of powerful but unaccountable figures who claim to operate on behalf of the state then he’s no business claiming he’s in charge.

  9. Rich says:

    “Those are no stupid people. Many may be. Not all of them. Especially not Abhisit.”

    Hmmm. Possibly.

    Mendacious, dishonorable. deceitful. But probably not stupid.

    On the other hand, how smart are they to tell lies that are so easy to identify as lies?

    Not stupid perhaps, but imho not especially smart either.

  10. ThaiCrisis says:

    The key word is indeed: “prostitute.”

    Let’s recap:

    -Elections? “When economy better” etc. …. Let’s add: “when it will rain pigs,” “when I’ll wear pink underwear,” “when my cleaning lady will have a sex change operation.”

    I mean: what the hell?

    It’s so easy to say “sure, I want to organize new elections, but you know there are some small conditions before to do it …”

    It looks better but that’s all. The bottom line is: Abhisit doesn’t want to hold elections, because he’ll lose. Like he lost before.

    -Lèse majesté: “Progress and change. We will review … blablaba.” No, it didn’t change. Many people in the last year with Abhisit as PM were arrested and sent to jail for lèse majeste.”

    -King alone? Well, Abhisit should explain to us why the king is in hospital since four freaking months. Of course, not a word.

    -Construction of rails: Bullshit. No progress on the “mega projects” front.

    -3G: Come on … we all know that it’s bullshit again. Even Laos has 3G. It’s a Thai national shame, in order to protect private interests.

    Voilà.

    To summarize: emptyness, same speeches, same keywords repeated ad nauseam (“rule of law,” “reconciliation,” “democracy,” etc.).

    The same stupid smile. The same inane “candor.”

    I mean who gives a fuck about charm and candor?

    Tell me?

    Abhisit is a fraud. A fraud. With a nice suit, and a nice hair cut.

    A fraud, since day one, December 2008. Since he was “nominated” PM, thanks to a bozo coup, a cheap parliamentary manoeuvre (bribing Thaksin’s friend, to make them change allegiance) and the support of the military of course who use Abhisit as their front man, their front puppet.

    I can’t understand how intelligent people can be so fooled. It’s astonishing.

    Come on Dan, wake up!

    (I don’t say that Abhisit is worst than previous PM, certainly not … just that, like Obama overseas, Abhisit is nothing but a fraud, a marketing product.)

  11. Jaded says:

    Sorry for the typos in the earlier post. I was writing on an i phone in Dubliners Pub on a Friday night … I think I should have typed “and” instead of an “an” on line 7 and it should be “Just as before they turned to Anand …” on line 10. (BD: Corrected, no worries.) Despite my sloppy grammar and incompetent typing I hope people can see the point of my argument. The outrageous atrocities of 1992 took place under Anand’s government. Some people are ready to suggest that Abhisit is Anand Mark 2. Why does Anand retain a reputation as a clean pair of hands in Thai politics? I know you are aware of Anand’s reactionary views as your carefully selected quote from the recent article in the financial times gives some indication of his true ideas about social justice. And just as Anand enabled then, Abhisit’s government is now enabling the same sort of … people … I sincerely hope that history will not repeat itself in the form of another massacre of Thai protesters. There are obviously risks to the UDD but they seem to have realized that this is a serious threat and modified their plans accordingly. If they do succeed in mobilizing a mass demonstration in Bangkok then another 1992 seems a possibility but I think at this point the focus for violence is elsewhere. At the moment the propaganda of scapegoating seems to be focused on un-Thai ethnic and national groups. If, after the mass murder of Rohingya, and the recent the Nazi style clearance and deportation of population of the Hmong camp, you still have any doubt that things are going to get worse then I would direct your attention to the preparations currently in train to deal with Thailand’s large Burmese population. Abhisit, Korn and their less attractive cronies in government are presiding over the sort of thing that Nazi Germany is normally associated with. They are enablers. If you don’t find Abhisit’s posturing outrageous refresh your memory and check out Abhisit’s statements on the Rohingya and the Hmong on YouTube. As he calmly fields questions with his well spoken “Oxbridge” accent you can look at a man who seems completely at ease with outrageous violations of basic human rights.

    Oh, but he has to say that you say … If he wants to stay in power then he cannot afford to challenge the people who put him in power … That’s the point many like to make … He wasn’t elected and the only way that the man and his party could get power was through the support of those forces of reaction who have an interest in promoting what are essentially authoritarian ideas and reactionary policies … And now his supporters believe that he is capable of somehow holding these authoritarian forces back from perpetrating new outrages and perhaps, through his oxford accented delicate mediation, he might even succeed in healing national rifts … Well on the evidence of the last year I would say that he is enabling attrocious behaviour and has “absolutely” no power to do anything but act as a public relations spokesman for authoritarianism. Watch the youtube videos and see if you agree with my view that he doesn’t seem to have any difficulty playing the role of being the acceptable face of evil …

    Like Abhisit I also qualify for membership of that Oxbridge Club on the Mall in London. That much vaunted PPE course has produced some plausible, smarmy, highly polished bastards who have caused a lot of damage to the world. I would urge people to try and forget about the guy’s charm and look simply at what he attempts to rationalize and justify. If you want a reminder then the latest article of Harrison George on Prachatai is a pretty good summary of some of the more ridiculous Abhisit statements. The response of the admittedly cynical international community to the recent Hmong deportation suggests that perhaps not everyone is quite as charmed as yourself. The American ambassador took the extraordinary step of publishing his carefully worded diplomatic disgust in the Bangkok post this week. Do you think he is charmed by the PM?

    Infiltrate? Infiltrate what? The Democrat Party and its leadership are facilitating the breakdown of respect for law and democracy. Those with time left over from skimming various lucrative government expenditures are suavely sauntering into rooms with the smugness of unelectable but empowered representatives of unaccountable authority. Abhisit and his crew are the problem because, with their co-opted allies they have succeeded in completely frustrating the popular will and have installed themselves in a coalition government which is entirely dependent on corrupt dealings for its continued existence. Abhisit sits at the top of this structure of usurped and utterly corrupt power.

    There is nothing to like about Abhisit … And yes I have been in the same room with him. If you think there is something redeemable in his actions then you’ve been conned.

  12. BangkokDan says:

    My bad. Well my last comment was bait. Who cares how tall Korn is.

    Still, it’s difficult to confront the man. In the Q&A Shawn Crispin, Nirmal Ghosh, our dear Russian correspondent friend and others aimed directly at Abhisit.

    As once said in an earlier post, a “Teflon premier.”

    His appearance is so polished, nothing seems to stick to the man.

    Interesting how he now blames Western nations for the Hmong misery:

    SMH – Thailand Blames Its Critics for Refugees’ Fate

    To my knowledge Western nations tried to issue visas for resettlement, but Thailand had sealed off the refugees from the outside world since quite some time.

    BangkokDan

  13. Hobby says:

    Abhisit has learned well from his Western counterparts, IMO.

    Thai Crisis (& Jaded): Can you enlighten me by pointing me to any leader that isn’t a fraud?

  14. Anonymous says:

    Why is everyone suckered by this guy?

    He’s “nice”?

    So what?

    He needs to be judged on his political actions not how he is at dinner.

    And his political actions are that he rode to power off the back of the actions of a criminal fascist mob.

    That he has never had – and never will have – anything approaching a democratic mandate.

    That his government is locking people up via secret trials for giving political speeches.

    That his government has re-instated executions after a long hiatus.

    That his government is aligned with some of the most corrupt politicians in the country (Newin etc.).

    That he invokes draconian and incredibly repressive laws at the drop of a hat.

    That he has kept Kasit as FM.

    That he has presided over a diplomatic debacle re: Cambodia.

    Why isn’t he called out on the really difficult stuff by the great and good at the FCCT?

    Most FCCT journos (same as Amnesty International reps) are terrified of losing their visas and cushy lifestyles.

  15. Stopout Teddy says:

    Jaded – I agree with your post made on January 15th, 2010 6.38 pm and also the other one on January 16th, 2010 6.49 am but did you get any sleep in between?

    (BD: My bad, bumped up Jaded’s comment.)

  16. Jaded says:

    Hobby

    I have to concede that most parliamentary democracies are led by frauds and poltroons. The largely chimerical nature of democratically accountable power allows for a great deal of posturing but little substance on the part of leaders. And I wouldn’t be fair if I didn’t say that we should also allow for checks and balances, the power of the press to investigate, comment on or even ridicule policy initiatives, and the likelihood that in all probability those closest to the center of power are least likely to wish its possessor well. So, yes, it’s hard to point to a leader that isn’t a fraud of some kind or other …

    Unlike ThaiCrisis I am not particularly offended by the ridiculous supporters of the Thailand’s imaginary recovery. The great economic powers of the world are badly led. Why should Thailand be any different? Certain things niggle away at my western conscience but I try to adapt to the local ways. Admittedly employing someone with the background of the current commerce minister is somewhat sordid but then Thailand’s industrial scale sex industry has already produced a number of prominent political figures. Why not recognize the immense contribution of the flesh trade by placing one of its leading purveyors in this position? It’s part of that Thai attitude to morality and suffering that has made the country so attractive to so many farang for so many years … Sure it’s sordid and disgusting but so many aspects of Thai government are. Why change the way things work now, particularly when Thaksin is gone? I accept the right of Thai society to be led by these people who probably reflect the values of the people who voted for them anyway. It’s a bit sad but I am not outraged.

    No, my sense of outrage stems from the gross violations of human rights that Abhisit has publicly condoned. Given his attitude, I believe we can expect much much worse to come. All the signs are there that preparations are underway to engage in what is essentially a systemic persecution of Thailand’s Burmese residents. He’s done nothing to suggest that he does not fully approve of and support this Nazi style bureaucratic cleansing of Thailand’s Burmese. This is the dirty, low, despicable policy of someone who wants to garner popular support by pandering to popular prejudice and scapegoating defenceless groups of people. Most people consider Abhisit’s late coming to the PAD movement a sign that he is a reluctant fellow traveller rather than an out and out fascist mouthpiece. I don’t. I think it’s very clear from his willingness to support the army’s right to persecute, torture and murder the Rohingya that he lacks any real conscience. A Buddhist might say that this is a good sign that his ego is in check I suppose. I believe those interviews he gave to CNN are crucial evidence that demonstrates that he’s a cynical opportunist who will take advantage of the conservative and authoritarian elite’s more primitive political consciousness to hold on to power. The full civil service bureaucracy – including academics, judges, doctors and military types – believe that he is somehow the embodiment of the highest ideals of service in the same manner that Anand was. Comfortable in the exercise of unaccountable power, these people are Abhisit’s real constituency, and I think they will do what is necessary to keep him in power as long as possible. This much is straight out of the fascist textbook. The fact that he has now set up an organization with himself as member number one to spy and report on the behavior of his countrymen is straight out of Orwell … The monitoring of the internet, heavy censorship of news media and the reluctance of journalists to challenge obviously false assertions ensure that the only real opposition comes from the disenfranchised. Scapegoating them is obviously the next step. But, like in Nazi Germany where the first concentration camps were for criminals and social “problems,” in Thailand the apparatus of oppression has to be tested before it can be brought to bear on the real targets.

    If Abhisit was just a fraud then, like George Bush or Tony Blair, we can expect this sordid era in Thai politics to end reasonably soon through the democratic process. But, if as I suspect, we have a embryonic Fascist regime on our hands then the treatment of the Burmese (beginning next month) will indicate the likely future trajectory of Thailand’s politics.

    The most ironic thing about this is that, like so many of the new policy initiatives of the Democrat Party, this scapegoating of the defenceless has its origins in the pioneering persecution of “drug dealers” by Thaksin. While in matters of style Abhisit is quite different, in most matters of substance, Thaksin’s clever methodology to assist his acceleration towards dictatorial power has been imitated and improved upon by the democratic government.

    The anti-Thaksin camp seems never the have stopped to consider the consequences if their seizure of power fails. If, God help us, Thaksin comes back, then courtesy of the PAD and its democratic allies, he will be able to step back into a situation of vastly greater power and authority than he could ever have hoped to achieve within the limitations of the democratic process and the 1997 constitution. They will have handed him control of the country. This fact, if nothing else, leaves few options for Abhisit and his supporters. Even if you argue that they actually don’t have an authoritarian agenda, in the absence of any chance of winning or rigging the popular vote, a seizure of power becomes a strong possibility. The traditional style military coup may be out of fashion but there are other ways to seize power.

  17. Hobby says:

    Thanks Jaded – not sure I agree entirely, but you have provided food for thought.

    Abhisit is clearly both “less than” and “more than” his former Mr. Clean Mr. Scrupulous image.

    (“Less than” because of his acceptance of the way power came to him, keeping Kasit on, and defending the military abuses – he also has an image of being weak – he’s too weak to stand up to the military or the PAD, but the fact he is still in power today shows that he is also “more than” those images.)

    I put him more in the Blair mould than the Bush mould – Blair was a fraud, but with Bush everyone knew what they were getting.

    I’m not sure what’s more dangerous – a politician with principles, or a politician with no principles. Either way it still can take decades to unseat them, even in more “mature” democracies.

  18. Mr. V says:

    Could you people lay off the “Nazi” “fascism” rhetoric. Kinda invalidates all you are saying as that is so wrong thing to use in any intelligent argumentation.

  19. BangkokDan says:

    Not really Mr. V.

    The use of strongly racist nationalistic, even fascist language and rhetoric by certain parties is well documented. Why don’t you search this site for a starter.

    We have to call things by their names, don’t we.

    BangkokDan

  20. Mr. V says:

    Well, use of Hitler is quite lame method. Bush Jr. = Hitler, Obama = Hitler etc.

    And racist does not mean fascism. It is not defined as core part of fascism. You can be a racist without being compared to Hitler or fascist.

    Extreme nationalism, the type of you I guess refer here heard from PAD stages, sure is what I would call part of fascism but I would not go on to call current PM a fascist!

    As throwing around “fascism” is most commonly used these days as mud-sling-pejorative-word so that is why I cringe when I read it used on this thread so many times.

    So call it extreme nationalism and racism but leave Hitler and fascism out of it (for now). :)

    Just my two cents for the furthering and continuing of the quality of debate and discussion.

  21. Jaded says:

    Hobby:

    1. Kasit’s story is extraordinary isn’t it? I wonder what purpose is served in having a foreign minister with a background in insurrection and facing terrorism charges? As it happens I have a cousin working in homeland security in the U.S. He’s in a relatively senior position and travels the world on his counter terrorism biz. His comments over dinner last year on the subject of Thailand were pretty damming. I’m sure he wouldn’t want me sharing his views but I think its safe to say that Kasit’s ability to represent Thailand overseas, while he may accurately reflect the true state of affairs here, has some major drawbacks.

    2. It’s hard to get rid of some frauds. The extraordinary career of Australia’s John Howard must reign supreme as an example of this.

    3. Abhisit and Blair? I suspect that Abhisit must consciously model himself on Blair. Perhaps his old friend Boris Johnson is giving him insider tips on how to get the most out of the Blair techniques? Funnily enough, Borris Johnson wrote a very interesting book a few years ago called “The Dream of Rome.” Going back to my first post on Robert Harris, the young Cesear etc. I wonder if he presented a copy to his close friend Mark? Perhaps it sits there on the PM’s personal bookshelf for ready reference? It’s an excellent book by the way. Mr. Johnson is a formidably intelligent character.

    Mr. V:

    I accept your point. The terms Nazi and fascist have become so clichéd that they do lose their impact in an argument. It does sound like I am merely name calling.

    I am not though. Going back to Hobby’s point, the Nazi analogy struggles when I try to think of a personality that one could compare with Abhisit. I suppose you can see his current political role as a little like that of Von Papen in the early thirties. The sincere democrat who represented the privileged and thought he could control Hitler …

    Or perhaps the career of clean cut, highly intelligent, and most articulate Speer might hint at the role played by a competent technocrat in facilitating the rule of a dictator?

    Mr. V you are quite right. There are no true historical analogies between what is happening in Thailand and what has happened in previous fascist regimes. Using the terms fascist and Nazi really do have the effect of undermining any potential impact of reasonable criticism. The problem is that I really can’t think of a better way to describe the trajectory of the current Thai political establishment. Abhisit’s role seems to be to lead this country along an already well marked and clearly identifiable road. Continue in this direction for long enough and the terms Nazi and fascist will no longer sound like name calling. The current plans for the Burmese problem are in my view the crucial moment of no return. If this government conspires to scapegoat a minority that numbers in the millions then, despite the regulations that are designed to prevent media reporting, I think most reasonable observers will begin to form similar conclusions. I pray that they step back from this before its too late.

  22. Rich says:

    @Mr. V:

    I agree, one can be racist without being fascist, though fascism almost inevitably involves racism.

    I also agree that on the surface, Abhisit is hardly considered a fascist, but he does have a habit of defending, or refusing to criticize those fascist elements in Thailand that put him up as a front man. Sometimes sins of omission are every bit as damning and revealing as sins of commission.

    One should always be wary of invoking the demons of Godwin’s rule though, Nazis were certainly fascist but not all fascists are/were nazis.

    Wiki provides a succinct though probably not entirely satisfactory definition of “fascism” in these terms:

    “Fascism is a political ideology that seeks to combine radical and authoritarian nationalism with a corporatist economic system, and which is usually considered to be on the far right of the traditional left-right political spectrum.”

    There is no doubt in my mind that Thailand is in a cycle of creeping fascism at the moment, but that doesn’t make them Nazis of course. I frankly do worry about the future of Thailand in the next few years. Many of my Thai friends have said they privately hope for a death from which a rebirth may come. Such as and is the wheel of Samsara. They are speaking metaphorically of course, but even so, words such as these would have been unthinkable even a year ago.

    There seems to be an air of resignation at the moment, things are (imo) going to get rough. A friend tells me that they are seeing a torrent of high-worth (if occasionally seedy) people leaving Pattaya. Voting with their feet. And a general sense of gloom as to what will happen next.

    If anyone thinks that Thaksin is going to stand by and watch Thailand confiscate two billion of his dollars, they are completely barking. If the government thinks that the reds are not going to revolt because some minister gets up and says they should “consider the good of the nation,” then it is taking a seriously rectal view of things and I believe that it will ultimately prove to be a lethal mistake. The traditional Thai way is to negotiate so that nobody loses their face or shirt, and that nobody except the little people do jail time. That approach has been abandoned in this case, the consensus view appears t be that this is because Thaksin threatened to emasculate the natural rulers of Thailand and take away their sanook. It seems to me that a delusional “born to rule” mentality prevails in those rarified regions, or perhaps that some kind of Divine Right assumption is being made.

    To make matters worse, I believe the army has now been effectively neutered. Anupong might call for a coup but there are many army officers ad grunts who would be just as likely to arrest him. Ultimately I suspect this government will find out that the army is composed of many ordinary people, from families who are dismayed at this government’s corruption, incompetence and obsessiveness.

    Things might get very tough indeed. Any foreigner living in Bangkok would be well advised to keep a suitcase packed, as I know more than a few of my friends there are doing. Just in case.

  23. Anonymous says:

    BD, sorry to veer slightly off-topic, but some of Jaded’s comments have me confused and worried (on the other hand, my question below does deal with some of the side-effects of increasing nationalistic fervor and anti-foreigner feelings here) …

    Jaded, you’ve mentioned the plans for Burmese people living/working in Thailand next month. What exactly are these plans? Are you referring to this new so-called “passport” document that all Burmese must get, which varies widely in cost, and apparently is being done in cooperation with Burma so now the Burmese government can keep watch on (and request extra taxes from) the families back in Burma who have relatives working over here? This “passport” thing makes me nervous for my children’s beloved nanny, and her family in Burma. Is Abhisit’s government hatching other schemes as well to make the lives of Thailand’s Burmese workers even more difficult and anxiety-ridden? Thank you, if you have time to elaborate. I hope there’s nothing more planned than this dodgy new “passport.”

  24. Jaded says:

    Anonymous:

    I am sure that BangkokDan is aware that all commentary on this subject is subject to regulation and censorship. I will try to be careful about what I say next. I read that article whoopla linked to in the Bangkok Post. The article seems to be suggesting that the “glitches” involved in the process are merely administrative (at least she didn’t say voluntary process.) The bureaucracy in Burma is very inefficient and so the work proceeds very slowly … And of course there is also some corruption amongst the officials involved. But actually this process is a good idea because properly documented workers might have a better chance of having their rights protected in Thailand … If you believe a word of this then perhaps you would also be interested in buying a luxury residence with a beautiful view in the environmentally pristine district of Map Ta Phut?

    I don’t in any way blame the writer of this neutered article as her purpose was obviously to evade the censorship regulations and get out some important factual information. If you can’t figure out what this really means then you’ll have to find someone willing to speak to you privately. Please, if you want to learn the truth ask someone who can speak freely. I’d advise you to leave your nanny alone. I know, your family servant is a member of your family. That’s why you pay her low wages and offer her minimal benefits or job security. But let’s not discuss the morality of employing servants. This is Asia not Europe … It would not be easy to find an au pair right?

    What you need to understand is that your Burmese nanny is probably not in a position to protect herself from anyone. Even if she is aware of the possibilities and willing to talk, it would be a difficult task to list the scope of this threat as it has implications on every aspect of her life past, present and future. And be assured that threat list includes you as her employer …

    I’d love to have the time or inclination to describe the implications of this for unregistered Thais of whom there are many and who are largely resident in places that do not generally support the government. I also love to discuss the complete absence of rights that leaves many immigrant workers in conditions that are as close to slavery as makes no difference. The role of agencies who provide domestic workers is also interesting. Hi-so friends of mine once mentioned to me that they knew a colonel in the border police who could get me reliable people … I’d love to get into this but, unless Dan writes it up, I’ll simply point out that while its a moot point whether or not Thailand is a nascent fascist regime, the kind of government that Burma has isn’t really in doubt.

    If this goes ahead then you should be worried about your nanny …

  25. Anonymous says:

    Thank you, Jaded, for taking time to elaborate on the impending worsening situation for Thailand’s, ahem, guest workers.” And thank you, whoopla. The article was helpful in what it did say and, as Jaded pointed out, what it DIDN’T say.

    (I’m trying to ignore Jaded’s crack about low wages and minimal benefits; s/he doesn’t know us and therefore knows nothing about the relationship between my family and our very much appreciated, trusted, and respected nanny of eight years.)

    I wonder how the Thai government would handle news that other countries that play host to undocumented Thai workers were starting to crack down on them and harrass them?

  26. Rich says:

    @Anonymous

    “I wonder how the Thai government would handle news that other countries that play host to undocumented Thai workers were starting to crack down on them and harrass them?”

    With the usual hypocritical outrage I expect. Bit we miss the point. Thais are superior to all other SEA nations so they are entitled to do without being done unto.

  27. Jaded says:

    Rich:

    Saudi Arabia used to have 200,000 Thai workers. Now the number is down to somewhere around 10000. Its claimed that the current interest in the Blue Diamond Affair is partly based on the possibility that at least some of those jobs, and the lucrative agency businesses to place people in them, might come back if relations improve. Now anyone who has ever worked in Saudi Arabia will tell you how they treat people … But the Thais are evidently anxious to get back into the situation regardless.

    Is it class issue – who cares about poor workers? Or a race issue – who cares about poor Isaan people? Or a sakdina issue, a Karma issue or even a vote for the right party issue ….

    Actually I have a theory about Burmese oil that might be relevant. It’s just a theory, but if China is determined to secure what has up until now been Thailand’s half of Burmese oil production then both the Burmese government and the government of Saudi Arabia have become very important players in Thailand’s future energy supply. It may seem a little far fetched but if you are looking for an ulterior motive beyond what is been spoken about in public then this might be part of the reasoning. There also are other factors such as the role of Asean negotiations and the local relationships between the military on both sides of the border that might play a part in the lateral thinking of those who decided on this course of action. It’s obvious that maintaining good relations with Burma and trying to restore the relationship with Saudi Arabia should bring benefits for the people who rule Thailand.

  28. Rich says:

    @Jaded: Roger all that.

    I was frankly amazed at how Abhisit really expected all things to be alright just because they arrested somebody. I very much doubt that these crimes will ever be resolved if they are investigated by Thais, especially considering who is alleged to have the blue diamond now. And yet, there is Abhisit talking it all up, and there are the investigators burying it again for all their worth. No doubt about who will win … the statute of limitations is about two weeks away, what odds are there on offer that anything will happen?

    I get really bored talking badly about Thais, especially considering that I have some really good Thai friends, even if they are invariably, frankly hopeless at everything. It’s just that the more I find out about these people, the more loathesome they appear, and I am certain this feeling is not limited to just me. It is all very worrying sometimes and I am glad in many ways to be only a visitor and not a resident. Were I a resident, I think I would have followed in the footsteps of so many expats in Pattaya and other places, and moved out to leave them to stew in their own lamentable juices.

    The real mystery to me is why anyone overseas dignifies them with diplomacy. I have no idea at all why Thais continue to elect the dregs of their society to exalted positions of power, and then seem surprised when the buggers proceed to bleed them dry. The Thai phu yais are just so duplicitous, devious and untrustworthy – in short, almost completely devoid of any kind of intellectual, ethical or cultural maturity, that they really ought to be shunned by decent folk.

    I see many more points of similarity between Thais and the detestable Burmese junta than I see between what Thais sneeringly refer to as democracy in Thailand and any kind of enlightened national characteristics outside of the obvious banana republics.

    /rant mode: off

  29. stefan says:

    Rich, I wish you would stop lumping all Thai people together as one equasion. I know for sure that if they were ALL the same stupid people, they could never hold the same fascination for you.

    Did you get hurt somewhere down your Thailand road?

  30. Rich says:

    @Stefan:

    How do you think generalizations become generalizations? How do you think clichés got to be clichés?

    Making generalizations does not mean there are not exceptions, in fact I have been at pains to point out that there are exceptions. In general however, I believe what I have said to be correct. It might be easy to wave it all aside on the pretext that I might have been hurt somewhere along the road, but the reality is that I have not been hurt by Thais any more than anyone else has. As a psychologist however, I expect I have rather better insights into the workings of the Thai psyche than those who are not. However much you might choose to disagree.

    The fact is that there are trends and predispositions in the way that national psyche is perceived, and these are largely the result of the prevailing culture. This is reflected in the common views about the behavioral characteristics of German, English, Scottish, Australian, New Zealand etc. etc. people. I don’t know which country you are from but I would be prepared to bet there are common perceptions of your country-folk in the same w ay there are some about mine.

    Most generalizations are there as a consequence of patterns of behavior noted over long periods of time, and most are justified to some degree.

    My comments reflect my own opinions about the trends in the Thai psyche. Of course it doesn’t mean anything other than that they are trends and predispositions, but because they may not apply to every single one of the 64m Thais out there does not make them invalid. That’s the beauty of generalizations, they apply in the general, not in the particular.

    “I know for sure that if they were ALL the same stupid people, they could never hold the same fascination for you.”

    You don’t know any such thing, you are merely assuming that you do based on your own experience of others who may have held similar views. This is a result of your mental filters, which actually reflect your own experience and assumptions much more than anyone else’s. It is pretty safe to say you don’t have any idea about the why’s and what’s of what lies behind what I choose to say.

    We all have freedom of choice about what to read and what to agree with. If you don’t like what I say then don’t read it, but please don’t suggest it is obligatory for me to see the world in the same way you do.

  31. Mithran says:

    “How do you think generalizations become generalizations?”

    The mental laziness of the people making them?

  32. Rich says:

    @Mithran

    “The mental laziness of the people making them?”

    Nice generalization there dude. Now what was that about laziness? :-D

  33. stefan says:

    Rich, you certainly ain’t lazy in defending your generalizations. Does it cost you so much to try to define who the idiots and retards are? A whole country has to wear your admonishment? Sorry, but your imperiousness on this detracts from any validity of what you are saying.

    (BD: Fair enough, but we’re running in circles, thread closed for a continuation of this same same …)

  34. Stopout Teddy says:

    Fascinating stuff. All very interesting – I’ve learned so much about Thai politics reading this thread!

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