PAD Success Score: -3.75

The aims were sky-high, but reality is something very earthly here in Thailand where the misnamed People’s Alliance for Democracy PAD is on the streets since nearly half a year and keeps the official residence of the prime minister beleaguered since over two months – with what payoffs? What’s it all worth?

Here’s a strictly nonpartisan taking stock of the PAD’s achievements so far. We remember their first appearance in 2006 with the coup-induced ouster of then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. A completely different game. This time around, to this day, PAD leader Chamlong still insists he has to solve the national crisis.

But this time, a more isolationist, militia-like, radicalized movement tried to set a wide array of terms and conditions from the outset – only to be pushed back again and again. There are even signs (divisions within the core leadership) that the PAD are looking for a face-saving exit strategy right now.

Don’t hold your breath though that it’s over yet. Other doomsdays will be announced. The investors behind the PAD want to see some sort of return – as it’s the norm in Thai politics. Counting the daily provision of food, security and entertainment the costs of keeping the PAD afloat run into dozens of millions.

Time to come to first conclusions. The PAD’s goals are/were and level of each achievement is (so far):

• - A coup: negative (-1)
• - Removal of the prime minister: 25% success (+0.25) (as only 1 PM was removed, but not by means of street power, but court)
• - Calling for new elections: negative (-1)
• - Restoration of pure ethics and morals: negative (-1)
• - Healing divisions in society: negative (-1)
• - Giving Govt House an all around renovation: will be positive (+1)
• - Raising debates & discussions: positive (+1)
• - Producing martyrs: positive (+1)
• - Punishing Thaksin: negative (-1) (again, this goal was achieved by means of rule of law)
• - Strengthening the opposition: neutral (0) (the Democrats finally found a cause, but opposition leader Abhisit outed himself more as a follower than a pro-active leader; general elections would trash them)
• - Eradicating the Thaksin legacy: negative (-1)
• - World’s longest picnic in history: positive (+1)
• - Peaceableness: negative (-1)
• - Strengthening of checks & balances & independent institutions: neutral (0)
• - Creators of “New Politics”: negative (-1) (as to this day the concept of New Politics remains fuzzy at best)

Overall positive points: +4.25
Overall negative points: -8
Overall neutral points: 2

Overall PAD payoff score: -3.75