Real-Time: Another Bangkok D-Day

House dissolution? Prime Minister Samak to resign? PAD protesters using shields with images of the king that police won’t take action?

Friday, June 20th, 2008, is another of those days Thailand has an oversupply of. In an address televised the last minute King Bhumibol Adulyadej had urged the prime minister to keep his promises to do good for the nation.

A signal of the monarch, it was suggested, to Samak’s advantage. But half a million protesters are expected. Follow the events blogged live right here. Newest thread at the top of the page, oldest at the bottom:

- Peacefully Besiege Until Samak Resigns: 10 pm – All quiet in Bangkok, but the story goes on. MSNBC joins in with an AP report. Noteworthy: “An almost festive atmosphere prevailed as protesters – many of them from Bangkok’s middle class – waved, cheered and chatted with security officials. Others, dressed in the alliance’s trademark yellow, shouted “Thaksin Out, Samak Out.” Remember that battle call? As if it was yesterday … But then again: Fewer than expected people today at Government House.

- 8 pm Update: Shall we call it a day? Things have settled down over at Government House. A prolonged siege is in the making – don’t expect a quick resolution. The PAD’s stages have been relocated without violence. A confrontation has so far been averted, but no side shows any sign of giving in. PAD will sit it out. While the street continues to determine Thai politics. Politicians have lost all trust it seems.

- Samak Dealt Another Blow: The Nation tells us “besieged Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej suffered another severe political blow this evening when Parliament formally accepted the opposition’s censure motion, practically preventing him from seeking a “graceful” way out through a House dissolution.”

- Protesters Reach Samak’s Office: Bloomberg keeps you up to speed with a general update. Makes a telling read with details about new police attempts to block Government House – and the concluding quote: “It’s really a political situation in which the elites seem to be battling each other without really paying attention to the general public.”

- Earlier Clash: Guardian reports on a minor clash earlier on. ASTV meanwhile mentioned that police did not stop a motorcycle mob attacking PAD supporters.

- PAD’s Tactical Ruse: The Nation reports why police top brass in charge of security at Government House were kicking themselves yesterday.

- PAD Core Leaders Meet: 7 pm local time, they’re about to announce their joint decision on the next steps. The meeting takes place half a kilometer away from Government House at Nang Lueng intersection, the location of one of the two newly erected stages. The other one stands directly in front of Government House, backed by a huge TV screen. Maybe the place to watch the Euro 2008 final.

- Update @ 6.45 pm: PAD protesters are leaving Makkhawan and gathering at three different spots along Phitsanulok Road. Anti-PAD groups are waiting in the provinces to travel to Bangkok. According to ASTV around 500 supporters of the DAAD, an anti-PAD group, have moved from Sanam Luang to the Agriculture Ministry near Government House.

- Police Regroup: The Nation reports the regrouping of policemen at 5.26 pm.

- Protest Headcount @ 5.45 pm: According to Foreign Minister Noppadol Patama 50,000, according to PAD 100,000.

- Track as well Bangkok Pundit‘s Live Blog on the PAD protests for further updates and in-depth analyses.

- ASTV reports at 5.18 pm that PAD leader Chamlong Srimuang expects the resignation of the current PPP-led government “within a few days.”

- Samak All Set: The Nation reports the prime minister is ready for a live address if PAD seizes Government House. Read: Ready to declare emergency powers.

- Headcount Update: At around 4.30 pm police estimate 25,000 protesters. Still way off Sondhi’s “promise” of 500,000 people.

- Foreigners Right for Once? TOC reports that foreign news agencies conclude Thaksin is the source of conflict in Thailand.

- SET Closes Way Higher: Thailand’s main stock index SET closes substantially higher. Plus 26.44 points or 3.56% higher, the trading volume not less healthy. Didn’t happen for quite some time. A purely technical, if not irrational correction? “Set Rebounds on Hopes of Positive Political Change,” analyzes TOC.

- Victory – Now What?: The Nation reports that police as per 3 pm had cancelled all blockades, PAD announces victory. Now what? What victory?! Or was it all about a final colorful push to save face? There’s more to come for sure … Or lulling the police to divert attention?!

- On another front, absolutely‘s unscientific poll speaks clearly, while the SET main index shows a major push upwards in the last minutes of trading. Do they know something we don’t know?

- ASTV reports that Samak called an urgent meeting with army chief Anupong Paojiinda. Meanwhile, Bangkok traffic is clearly more quiet than on normal Fridays. ASTV after the meeting: Samak had a “strange expression.”

- PAD‘s ultimate goal remains: Take control of Government House tonight. While ASTV hinted that the protesters plan to stay where they are to avoid a major confrontation.

- ASTV reported at 3.15 pm that police opened the gates to Government House to avoid bloodshed. Psychological warfare by PAD? They show solidarity with the police and praise them. PAD leaders call upon the protesters to “smile” as a part of the “civil disobedience” concept/approach. As always, they warn of a “third group” trying to instigate violence.

- 50 Meters Off Govt House: The Nation reports PAD protesters are 50 meters away from Government House. The roads there though are narrow, sources say only a core-movement will stay on there for longer. And the questions loom: Will the cabinet resign? Who’d be the caretaker government? Elections again soon?

- Police, Protesters Face Off: Sydney Morning Herald reports Breaking News for a worldwide audience.

- BOT Fights for Baht: Thailand Crisis reports that the Bank of Thailand intervened again in the foreign exchange market to halt the depreciation of the Thai baht. A policy, writes Thailand Crisis, that once “costed a huge amount of money.” Thailand’s main stock index SET meanwhile held steady in morning trade. Probably also due to intervention.

- PAD asks grocery stores around protest area not to sell alcohol to prevent “unnecessary disturbances.” Chamlong calls upon the protesters to “smile” at the police and warns that a “third group” may try to instigate violence.

- ASTV reported at 1.37 pm that PAD groups will start a major push against Government house at 5 pm Bangkok time.

- A 500.000 People Showdown?: TOC reports that Sondhi expects more than 500,000 people will join the PAD final showdown.

- Witty Protesters: Reports the Bangkok Post reports protesters easily outwit police and reach Government House.

- First 10,000 Protesters: The Nation by 12.54 pm the number of protesters grew to 10,000 with PAD leaders Sondhi Limthongkul, Somkiart Pongpaibul and Chamlong Srimuang leading the groups on top of a truck. A speaker warned people that the government may use tear gas to disperse the protest. He urges the protesters to remain calm and use cloth to be distributed to them to cover their nose and mouth.

- Chavalit Tells Samak to Resign: Reports the Bangkok Post in order to avoid worse to come former premier Chavalit Yongchaiyudh is suggesting three ways out: Samak’s resignation, dissolution of the house or a national government to be set up.

- Govt House Siege in One or Two Days: The PAD march is not about to end quickly. The Nation quotes protest leader Chamlong Srimuang that he “expects to start laying siege to Government House within one or two days.” Change of tactics/plan?

- Govt House Sealed Off: TNA reports “thousands of police officers have barricaded roads around Government House to block anti-government protestors from moving in to besiege the government seat Friday afternoon, aimed at pressureing the elected government to resign.”

- CNN Prepares for the Day: A straight roundup of what’s at stake right here.

- Backgrounders: Bangkok Pundit gives you all the information and tools to be prepared for the big day. BP reckons with a “50% chance of a serious confrontation.”