Real-Time: Que Sera, Sera
Another of Thailand’s longest days has begun and right on the outset the authorities got duped by the same old snaky tactics. Anti-government protesters of the People’s Alliance for Democracy PAD cut power lines to parliament. Security forces retreated and the PAD set up mobile stages. Completely déjà vu and predictable …
TOC meanwhile, belonging to the network of the PAD, spoke of “hundreds of thousands of PAD protesters” who laid a successful siege to parliament. Maybe a slight exaggeration, as the Bangkok Post spoke of 5,000 … And don’t forget thousands were trucked in from the South with free bus rides.
For many it’s a nice trip to the big city. But numbers fail the PAD, not enough Bangkokians around anymore. So – what to expect? Nobody knows. But be assured of an utterly violent reaction of the “reds,” the anti-PAD, if the “yellows,” the PAD, should succeed in toppling the government. Refresh your browser now and then. Here we go live:
6.30 pm: Guess we can safely call it a day. A worthwhile read to finish the day is New Mandala’s The beginning of the end for PAD? – repeating what we’ve been saying here all along, just to mention the PAD’s cultish nature we’ve been observing so often: “There is every chance that, left to their own devices, the PAD will degenerate into a rather eccentric political cult with a bankrupt and self-absorbed leadership. They may be able to maintain a few shrines of protest at key locations in Bangkok but eventually the time will come for a civic clean up.”
6 pm: Xinhua reports decreasing tensions in Bangkok. Female PAD protesters at Don Mueang meanwhile assaulted a high-ranking police commander: “Several spat at him and many threw water bottles at him. After he fell down, several protesters kicked him and threw water bottles at him again until other policemen came to rescue him.” Brave new PAD world.
4.30 pm: PAD leader Chamlong SriMueang confirms that protests at strategic locations are continuing tomorrow Tuesday. Again no word about a general strike previously announced for Tuesday.
Meanwhile it has become clear that the PAD hijacked several buses. One bus was retaken when police managed to shoot a tyre. Other three vehicles remain in the hands of the PAD. Orchestrated by highly educated, never violent and hardly armed PAD thugs … Cute was TOC‘s “Men Dressed Like PAD Guards” taking us for utter fools.
4 pm: The PAD are not thinking about retreat or a rest. A stage is set up in front of Don Mueang’s makeshift government house, reports TOC. You have to admire the authorities for their patience with that ever popping up nuisance, while the people of Bangkok, by not joining the protest in large numbers, today clearly intimated to the PAD today their movement represents a minority – while the PAD, at Don Mueang, again declared victory.
2.40 pm: The PAD at least succeeded in chasing ministers away from Don Mueang, reports TNA. And, having again and again promised the final showdown, will the PAD stick to their word and really make it the last one and dissolve? And what about that general strike threat? Maybe somebody lost quite some credibility today. The longest day turned out to be quite a short one. But then again, today’s likely not the end of it all. Whenever the cabinet meets, AFP quotes a PAD key leader, “we will go” there.
The man at the center of it all meanwhile, Thaksin Shinawatra, promises to return to Thailand as PM (!) to solve the kingdom’s mess, reports The Nation: “With me at the helm I can bring confidence quickly back to Thailand. We have to find a mechanism under which I can go back, that is why I must tell you that I will go back into politics.” Read the whole thing – he thinks he gets away without a day in jail? While the PAD’s last battle crumbled into their worst battle so far. Their meager numbers today are proof that they’re completely out of touch with Thailand’s plagued current reality. Delusions of grandeur may explain the rationale behind.
2.30 pm: The numbers fail the PAD today. All roads around parliament are again cleared while some die-hard PAD protesters shake their hand clappers at Don Mueang. It’s up to the PAD leadership now to become tragic heroes or end their campaign with heads held still high.
2 pm: Ah, there arrives the new supply of protesters at Don Mueang, reports The Nation: “They dispersed from parliament at 1 pm. By 2 pm, they were setting up a stage at the Don Mueang temporary government seat.” One hour from parliament to Don Mueang, not too shabby! A cat-and-mouse game really, a Pyrrhic victory so far … I have the feeling the day doesn’t evolve as the PAD leadership planned. But would be surprised if they have no other ace in the sleeve.
1.30 pm: While we wait for further action to unfold, Not The Nation has the Breaking News “Third Hand Seen Shaking Invisible Hand.” On another, more serious note, police invite observers to monitor the police response, reports TNA. So far you can’t accuse police of even hurting an ant. The core message: “Police will adhere to international standards of practice to cope with the situation.” And if you haven’t done yet so, take our Poll: What Will Happen – outlining the possible scenarios Thailand faces.
1.10 pm: PAD have to carefully manage the available contingent of protesters, as The Nation reports. A batch of 100 protesters arrived at Don Mueang – the same batch had earlier on protested at the Finance Ministry.
1 pm: Government officials and MPs are still stuck inside parliament, reports Bangkok Pundit. Looks like tear gas will have to be used again rather sooner than later, but this time American made.
12.40 pm: PAD’s mouthpiece TOC laments there were no police around to “ensure the safety of the PAD protesters” when “members of anti-PAD protesters, clad in red, came to observe the PAD’s rally at Government House.” They have some nerve … Don’t you admire the PAD’s audacity.
12.30 pm: No major developments expected until the 3 pm press conference of the army chief and house speaker. Anupong and Chai side by side, you couldn’t demonstrate a more unified top political and security leadership. Somehow the government masters the art of whatever the PAD do will come to nothing much. So far.
Reuters has an interview with Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat assuring he will neither quit nor does he expect a coup. Noteworthy: The security at the premier’s residence by the way is top-notch. Police can do if want to!
11.15 am: PAD leaders declare victory after the parliamentary session is postponed, while Bangkokians are assured that “the protest will not use violence at any place. PAD leaders will consider later whether to move the protesters at those places back to the Government House,” The Nation reports.
11.00 am: The Bangkok Post mentions more than 5,000 protesters in front of parliament. Now that would hardly classify as a mass movement, wouldn’t it. Bangkok Pundit has another take on the rather low PAD head count: “Not really strength in numbers for the PAD so far.”
From today’s Bangkok Post editorial:
It would be useful if the PAD reconsidered the overall effect of its continuing political tension. UDD leaders should also think about how useful its mass rallies are to the nation. The birthday of His Majesty the King is next week. The Asean summit comes to Thailand two weeks later. Economic problems are becoming a crisis. Now would be a good time to take a holiday from huge political rallies and attend to the country’s business.
10.45 am: PAD are allowed to act at will. Setting up a stage in front of the entrance to Metropolitan Police and again cutting off power supply. Because, says protest leader Veera Somkwamkid, the police office was used as a base for launching bomb attacks against the protesters at the Government House.
Bloomberg has some background on the economical timing of the latest Thai mass protest – with signals of an “accelerating slowdown.”
10.30 am: ThaiPBS shows some arrested PAD thugs with some confiscated weaponry. They had actually hijacked a bus.
10.15 am: Police, friendly as ever, allow protesters to remove barricades to besiege Metropolitan Police.
10.00 am: Meaw & More reports that parliament is “taken, for now.”
9.30 am: Bangkok Pundit has a solid round-up to give you a head start for the day’s events.
TOC is cracking me up! When will all this nonsense end already? What the heck is the Metro Police Department doing? Answer: Not too much!
Indeed, it’s becoming embarrassing !
“Victory,” “Final Battle,” “People Revolution,” “Final Showdown,” “General Strike,” blablablabla.
I mean we all know that we are watching a show.
It was funny and/or tragic at the beginning … but now … big tiredness.
I start to think that the “non-strategy” of the gvt, AKA doing nothing, just waiting, is the good one.
It’s going to be difficult for the PAD to continue like that.
But … but … it might no be a a total “loser situation” after all … what if the only function of the PAD’s circus was to “freeze” the gvt, divert its attention, confine the gvt in a gangue of heavy syrup?
A super big red herring …
With 3 aims:
- prevent the gvt to change the constitution
- wait until the economic situation worsens (to curb the popular support)
- and finally, wait for … the PPP dissolution
?
Let’s be honest: Until now, we can say that those aims look quite successful.
The PAD is looking and acting grotesque … But on a broader plan, their strategy could be very successful.
I’m afraid the PAD are a thing of the past TC.
They’re perceived by many as even more divisive than Thaksin.
They had their golden chances – and blew it. There was a time a solid part of the population stood behind them. Now they even have to truck in supporters from far down South.
But does Thailand have an(y) alternative? So polarized, one of the evils will have to do I’m afraid.
BangkokDan
I agree. But was “to have a solid part of the population” a real target for the PAD?
That’s the whole question.
I start to think that the purpose of the PAD was absolutly not to create a real “political force” that could challenge the PPP, blablabla … but instead like I wrote before, to drive the gvt crazy, to prevent them from “working” properly (and changing the constitution), just a way to gain time, make noise, occupy the media and the minds of the people.
In one year, 2 prime ministers, rallies, headlines, a few deads here and there, people angry, confused, a government forced to work in an old airport etc …
It’s a mess.
But this mess could be seen as a tactical success.
Anyway, we’ll know soon … Let’s wait for the PPP dissolution for instance. And see what happen next.
Personally I think the PAD is part of a broader plan. Absolutely not a plan by its own.
TC, I agree it is part of a broader plan. But, that plan doesn’t appear to be very organized and they may have won a battle, but they aren’t going to win the war in current society. Technology has shined the light on too many things and information is a powerful thing. I am fairly certain “the majority” isn’t going to put up with their new-found rights being taken away.
If PPP is dissolved or the house is dissolved for new elections, we will be right back here in 6-12 months. The government has to stay the course.
The 20,000 – 30,000 supporters that are out this time and which are willing to face real threat of death or serious injury is significant number. This is not “a nice trip to the big city.” This are mostly people who believe in their cause so much that are willing to face danger and hardship of protesting all day and camping out on street to stand for it.
To be honest, many PAD sympathizers who I believe still there are many, don’t see political return of Thaksin as a real possibility at this time. So they don’t see it as worth to come out. However, if some event happen that increase significantly the possibility of an Thaksin return (eg. constitution amendment), then I expect the PAD numbers will also greatly increased, possibly to 100,000s again.
What strikes me is the complete absence of a critical dialog within the PAD. With those PAD leaders/saints promising success again and again and failing again and again … nobody questions those saints?! And because there’s no open debate the people leave the PAD … For the rest it’s just too easy to say yes yes all the time with those hand clappers …
[...] So far, PAD is unable to gather a substantial number of people in the streets. Its target is to mobilize 100,000 people but this figure has not yet been reached. There are reports that PAD has been transporting protesters from the provinces. [...]
[...] city the numbers in any one place are are not tens of thousands let alone hundreds of thousands.h/t AB (who is updating hourly)AP:The protest alliance also says it is committed to nonviolence, [...]