Red & Abandoned
Tragic really, Thailand would have the grassroots movement she needs – but there is no leadership. People are yearning for betterment and fundamental change – but their leaders just led them them into another pipe dream. Over the coming hours and days the red leadership may discredit this so important movement even further. Be it by escalation or retreat, the war is lost, and these are the consequences:
1) The reds let their nemesis, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, shine with statesman-like resolve and actually strengthen Abhisit’s position. 2) Thailand’s already dire international reputation would have gone to the dogs – no government on the moon gives in to barrages of curses and ritualistic blood politics -, but a government in control gives at least a sense of normality and hey, maybe we’re not moving backwards anymore.
3) Thaksin’s return is now an even more distant prospect. On top of it, he wasted the reds’ so precious benefit of doubt with his last phone-ins. He either lost his mind or touch with reality, he’s schizophrenic or under immense pressure by daring to beg his enemies to please switch side – even the generals who ousted him! -, while his latest homophobic and Hitler rant hardly increased his standing as a hetero democrat. Are we witnessing Thaksin’s public mental breakdown? Signs of a red self-laceration? It’s gonna be an even longer wait for the reds until elections sometime in 2011.
Thaksin and the reds have to restart from scratch. Yes, short-term memory is a predominant around here. Soon we may get promised a Two Million March. Chances are though that the reds got humiliated – unfairly! – to such an extent that it’s even too late for damage control. These red leaders running about like headless chickens are not what the movement deserves. Imagine the march would succeed – whom to elect?
Nah, there never was any serendipity in Thai politics, but the reds meant hope. Stability and strategic planing are no concepts of the past, but Thailand currently certainly enjoys some modern comforts brought by the current regime. Let’s assume the reds and their political wing manage to lead a coalition. They’ll have one big aim to fight for. The rehabilitation and return of Thaksin into power. National politics will come to a standstill until that goal is reached.
The man’s not finished until the day he dies. But his fate makes his politics too radical for the time being. Thailand has other issues than being preoccupied with the life of one man – who was actually saying the other night he has to go to bed because tomorrow he has to decorate a hotel he has invested in. While his people were bleeding for him. Have no sources if he splashed his own blood against a nearby Thai embassy … Solidarity is not a virtue coined by Thaksin.
Thaksin’s humiliated post-march reds don’t deserve the mess they find themselves in. They’re denounced as crazy superstitious rural hordes – people who are not joking when they say they’re giving their life with the blood sacrifice. Well, someone is taking their life.
Before the reds start their revolution, it’s never too late for a revolution in the own house. Thailand’s disenfranchised deserve better. And – for some it’s important – no further affronts to ethics (blood). For some clean ethics are the basics of honest politics.
Sad to say, but the red march made clear, as of now Thailand doesn’t have a credible political alternative.
Agree that the leadership ranks are thin, but how about a bit of historical perspective Dan?
For instance:
- How many of the old TRT leaders have been banned? (Of course I don’t expect you to comment on whether that was a just punishment, or whether they have been treated differently than the “Democrat” Party.)
- Also, you might consider what sort of pressure other leaders waiting in the wings might be under, particularly knowing what they would be going up against. (The only acceptable leader to the old elite is one who would not go against the established order of things, and such a leader would hardly be in a position to offer any real help to the red cause, let alone be able to keep the army in its barracks if he did try to rock the boat.)
The blood incident can be spun two ways:
- The way you are spinning it, OR as a desperate attempt to avoid violence but still make a statement, with a forlorn hope that it might have sparked a prick of conscience in Abhisit.
(BD: See Hobby, even more reasons to wait for – even delayed – elections. Guess, depending on the timing, the old banned guard is eligible again. The ban’s five years. Get your house in order first.)
Well said Dan.
Although the English-speaking blogging community and academic opinion providers have no actual involvement, they should now take a timeout to look at what they have been writing and saying as well.
I though it was obvious for some time that the UDD/reds/Thai underprivileged were being lead by a bunch of headless chooks with no plans apart from bringing down the government and bringing back their superhero.
Where this is at right now, only proves it.
Maybe it’s time for the English-speaking chattering classes to stop this Abihist bashing and often Thaksin love-in commentary and provide proper analysis and realistic ways forward, based on what is, not what they (the chatterers – including me) dream is happening because it fits nicely into preconceived concepts of history and the course these things have taken before – both in Thailand and around the world.
So far, the army has not lived up to those dire predictions of some, that they would spill blood on the roads on and around Rajdamnoen – it was the reds, instead. The PM so far has not lost his cool like Samark did, or like previous PMs who brought the country yet another coup through mismanagement. And, for the reds, this is a movement (if it can be sustained) not of students and middle class Bangkok people, but of people who seem to have been left out of the reforms and improvements the students and middle-class now enjoy.
This is a first for them. They will hopefully learn from this. But, more importantly, they will find leaders who can honestly help everybody on Thailand, openly and without self-interest.
Now, that’s a dream. In a few year’s time let’s hope it’s a reality.
Let’s all hope this dead-end they have been lead up has an opening for a peaceful move through this impass and on to better things.
However, the longer this goes on, the more dangerous it could become. That would set everything back a long long time.
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This post was mentioned on Twitter by BangkokDan: (BLOG) Red & Abandoned http://bit.ly/bM9rXw...
Yes, waiting seems to be their only real option, given what they are up against, and the support provided from high places. (The same support that was very much lacking when the boot was on the other foot and PAD were trying to unseat government – twice!)
Whatever happens there’s going to be a big shake-up in Thailand sometime in the next few years – I expect the ultimate outcome will be the same, no matter who has their hands on the levers when it does.
GeGee: Nice to see you feeling so positive about the current PM – I used to feel that way too.
I suppose it’s for each of us to judge whether the “Democrats” are more interested in improving things, or preserving the status quo. (Actually, us farang don’t count anyway – it’s for the Thai people to make that judgement, although I think they already have done so over recent elections – will be interesting to see what they think next time they are given the chance.)
Is there an English text of Thaksin’s phone-in?
(BD: Partially here, but search Twitter and the blogosphere.)
Dan, are we moving the goalposts here? First it was people saying they had to get over 100,000 to avoid humiliation, and by all accounts they did that. Now it’s what, humiliation because they didn’t bring down the government? With the ISA in place and no backing from … whoever … they were never likely to do that.
I agree the blood stunt wasn’t good, and looks worryingly like self-harm on a massive scale, but humiliated? For what? Believing in something other than their right to shop? For being moved by something other than a skin-whitening commercial?
Maybe this was the first step in going beyond Taksin.
Mithran you might be right, in asking if this was a first step in going beyond Thaksin.
The events of the past few days might now show the “true believers,” that until they do just that and find a new set of leaders – amongst their own ranks, rather than yet another lot of false idols, gold diggers and opportunist politicians, their demands will never be met.
If this is what they get out of it, I would say, they have no need to “go and hide,” but every reason to look ahead to a better day.
Having spent the last few days in Thailand, it’s clear to me that the reds do not represent the majority of Thais, who have better things to do and as usual remain silent.
The reds’ rally has turned into something of a fiasco. The number of protesters was nothing like the 0.5-1m forecast and today is less than 10,000 and dwindling. The 2-4 days to topple the government has passed and there has been no significant impact. The blood-letting stunt and black magic “curse” were no more than that – stunts – and have served only to distance the majority of Thais still further. Thaksin has ridiculed himself by his psychotic “Hitler” rant.
In fact, by doing nothing, Abhisit has come out this so far rather well. Whatever happens now the reds have lost this particular battle and need to think carefully about how to re-motivate their followers.
A Thai newspaper website has reported that the blood was not all human. It is alleged that the reds mixed it with some cow’s blood. Then again, the two kinds do not seem to be distinguishable if you get my grip.
Hi Dan*
Thanks for asking. I would be happy to contribute, but would rather do so once this round of demonstrations wraps up. So far I quite like what the reds have done, but my assessment could change depending on what happens between now and the time they go home. As you know, I am quite sympathetic to the reds’ cause – and, despite some perhaps questionable moves, I believe they have done quite a few things to help their cause this week. However, because my support for the UDD isn’t unconditional, I think I would rather give this a chance to play out and then give an overall assessment of the situation. At least in my own estimation, I doubt that they will stay there more than a few more days, so perhaps I could write something up this weekend?
Thus far, these are just a few observations I have on the points you have raised. Premised that I am arguably not the best representative of the “academic viewpoint” – just possibly the most overexposed
– I don’t think there is much of a shift in the thinking of foreign academics. My reading of the situation is that most of us like the red shirts and very much share their agenda, at least with regard to the “ammart;” I don’t think that has changed as a result of the demonstrations. At the same time, I think most of us (some more, some less) continue to be very uncomfortable with Thaksin; that also hasn’t changed, to the extent that the red shirts show no signs of “throwing him under the bus.” In a sense I understand that the red “leaders” are in a very difficult position here. On the one hand, I am on record as saying that it will be hard for them to accomplish anything so long as Thaksin looms on the horizon. On the other hand, I understand that some fear they might hemorrhage popular support in the provinces if they dispense with Thaksin as a symbol (operationally, I would guess he is not in charge already). So far they seem to want to try to have it both ways, but I doubt that they eventually can.
As for whether there is more than meets the eye, I think that whereas the red shirts will in all likelihood fail to get Abhisit to resign, they have done themselves a lot of good this week. First, for all the hand-wringing about their numbers, I believe that it was a huge accomplishment to get so many people to come despite the government’s best efforts to get them to stay home (scaremongering, media campaign, ISA, checkpoints, etc.). Second, in spite of all the predictions of impending doom, they have behaved themselves incredibly well so far. They turned out not to be the barbarian hordes they had been made out to be, intent on destroying Bangkok and the entire country; at the end of the day, they behaved peacefully, minimized the disruption that moving so many people around inevitably entails, and were welcoming to everyone who wanted to ask questions, take photographs, etc. Considering this, I think it will be harder for the government to portray them quite as negatively in the future as they did in advance of these demonstrations. Third, the reds have shown that they are not really that radical after all; the rather distasteful homophobic rants aside, their main slogans were “dissolve the house” and “return power to the people” – not exactly hardline Maoist stuff. Finally, whereas people like you or I perhaps instinctively recoil from the idea of this kind of blood ritual they have staged, there is reason to believe that it might have actually been pretty effective. Aside from getting the attention of the entire world, they have gone a long way to humiliate Abhisit by smearing the entrance to his workplace and home with their own blood (especially given his rather clean and benign image at home and abroad). In this sense, I wonder whether we all might have been misguided to believe the rhetoric about their intention to stage a “final battle.” In particular, it looks like their strategy is more like “death by a thousand cuts.” That is, it’s not to precipitate wholesale revolution (as they said they would), but to essentially destroy Abhisit and his backers through a more gradual, scorched-earth type approach.
We’ll see how this plays out. In any case, if it’s ok with you I can elaborate on some of this in the coming days, once the reds start heading back home for some well deserved rest and som tam.
* (BD: Federico’s comment is his answer to this email request of mine: “I want to ask you if you would be so kind to provide an analysis of what was and is going on – and how it will end. To counterbalance my own boring work I’d appreciate your contribution. If yes, did the academic viewpoints shift? Did this red march alter anything? Is this just how it’s played in Thailand, or this time is there much more than meets the eye?”)
Now it’s getting dirty; Thaksin, red shirt leaders betray their own people. Desperate people:
http://tinyurl.com/ykusuux
Hmmm …
I’ve just read an article of The Nation by Tulsie.
And then this post here.
And, honestly, somehow … it reminds me a lot of Tulsie’s style & “way of thinking” (if it is possible to call so – I mean, if he really ever thinks at all).
So, in comments to previous post(s) Hobby has already asked several times or expressed his wonder about the “change of stance” (or whatever).
And somehow I start to wonder more often – perhaps Dan just posts stuff written by Tulsie here? In this post he even includes link to some Tulsie’s tweets (“lost”) – although there is already a separate whole section dedicated entirely to Tulsie’s Twitter tweetsr, which by itself makes one wonder (as Hobby has already mentioned it) – why such an affection? I mean, I’ve never seen any other blog including someone else’s Twitter entries – usually each blogger only would include his/her own. Thus it already by itself unprecedented at very least.
All this quite interesting. I mean – there are just TOO many similarities & typical for Tulsie spins.
Dan, are you Tulsie’s pseudo-name in blogosphere by chance?
Or perhaps there is some sort of deal with Tulsie – to promote him & to write in his style?
Otherwise, I still can’t figure out – why so much love for Tulsie and almost same style, tone, rhetoric (I would even say – demagoguery).
(BD: 555, try to take it as a compliment. Before the reds’ rally you got the Bangkok Post’s culture tweets in that live feed. No worries, you get culture again once the reds are back home. Oh, and maybe are T. (no, not T.) and me the only two having such an abstruse train of thought.)
Thaksin’s latest phone-in, translations from Twitter:
What a statesman, quite nice today after yesterday he said ” all gays are violent and Abhisit was like Hitler.”
Guys keep supporting your red shirt team.
Under Thaksin’s leadership and we’ll get soon:
Nattawut = Interior Minister (bash all other thinkers)
Noppadon = Foreign Minister (twist all infos)
Jatuporn = Health Minsiter (blood rituals only – ban Red Cross)
Chavalit = Prime Minster (Puppet of Talk-sin)
Somchai = Education Minister (make sure people stay dumb and watch enough soap opera for future elections)
Seh Deang = Defense Minster ;O)
Penkair = Information Minister (overseeing all media)
Remember how Penkair himself warned Thailand about the SPINNING AND TWISTING Thaksin back in 2001? He didn’t change until today. Read here for yourself:
http://absolutelybangkok.com/young-jakrapob-penkair/
Hats off to Johnbyte for this bit of comic relief in an otherwise serious discussion:
A quick study this man is!
BD – just looking at the disturbing repetitiveness of your blog post titles from the last two weeks, have you been contracted by the editorial board of the nation all the sudden?
Find this remote warriors’ enthusiastic romantization of the red leadership (no reds w/o leadership) adorable and am an eager witness to a better future and world. Unluckily we have freer media today than under Thaksin’s self-censorship days, but hey, let bygones be bygones! Sooner or later we’re heading for the dirtiest elections in Thai history and I have no clue what I’m writing about; clear though is, the Thai people I’m talking too, and there are some, are obviously the blind and ignorant minority.
Oh, and my mother-in-law is a real hardcore Thaksin lover. Doesn’t make her less adorable.
And certainly don’t write to please. Funny thing being: this site never had as many visitors and (“positive,” whatever that means) mentions as these days.
BangkokDan
Dan, the only bias I would consider you “guilty” of recently, is that you are going against the orthodoxy, so prevelant in the English-language blogging “classes” (remember we’re now told this is a “class” war).
Like you I see the hypocrisy and double standards of BOTH sides. Sadly orthodox “policy” doesn’t allow for this. Nor, does it allow you to take news garnered from The Nation as anything more than a bunch of government lies and propaganda … if only you could read the Truth Today!!
Dan, don’t let these thought “Nazis” get at you.
Keep telling it as you see it. After all you might be as wrong as lots of them are.
Finally, in support of my belief in your independance, I would ask those who are accusing you to think if you are “guilty” as they charge, why would you be so prepared to give such open space to people such as Dr. Federico Ferrara, Jaded and several others?
I would have thought if you’d been told to “toe the line” commenters such as these would “disappear” rather than be encouraged by you to contribute.
For whatever reason, Dan has chosen a particular editorial line – that’s his right, and I only questioned the motives because it seemed such a blatant change.
No opinions should be fixed beliefs, and we are all entitled to modify our opinions over time (those following my blog & my comments on other blogs over the last few years know I have done just that.
I actually agree with much of what Dan is saying, however I sometimes feel the need to comment to provide some perspective & balance when I perceive Dan has not done that in his post.
Dan’s blog is great, and it’s made even greater by the way he lets differing opinions filter through – I try to keep an open mind on all opinions, and if someone provides a convincing argument, I am happy to change mine.
I largely agree with Federico’s preliminary observations. The clap-trap rhetoric of a million-man-march and giving Abhisit 24 hours to dissolve the house is matched by the clap-trap rhetoric of those pointing out the predictable obvious – neither happened – and blithely ignoring that neither was ever going to happen.
In essence, UDD just need to persist and make it clear that they’re not going to disappear from the Thai political space. That, in itself, will reinforce the view from Abhisit’s backers that he is continuing to not deliver the #1 result expected of him i.e. to neutralise the “red problem” by whatever means – whether by crackdown or some form of reconciliation. That’s a “FAIL”. Sitting it out until elections almost certainly remove Abhisit from office is not an option his backers are likely to accept.
One final observation: “death by a thousand cuts” seems appropriate (and not because of the blood context) – but I can’t say the same of “scorched-earth type approach” … Whatever other accusations may be flung at UDD, even ASTV/Manager hasn’t tried that one.
Red movement had been set up nearly three years and they still haven’t made much progress in terms of making sense to the rest of the country.
Their agenda is still dictated from the top and they only managed to communicate it better to the bottom. No original, grassroots thoughts have taken root so far and no leadership emerged.
Abhisit’s concern seems to be the transition of this movement into something quite harmless while internet well wishers hope for emergence of some real, people driven movement for a change, a movement that somehow refuses to emerge despite all the opportunities.
It would be nice to harness all this political activism for something good but for now it’s all wasted on hatred that erodes reds from the inside.
GeGee
555 truly – geeeeeeee !
I guess my nickname (BTW adopted since 2008 at least, while PADshists were still on full rampage in Bangkok) somehow finally got some, huh?
Well, so far I usually simply skipped GeGee’s comments, not even bothering to reply on anything (s)he(e) tried to say.
I guess I would say something now:
The **** I read in GeGee’s post is too blatant either à la The Nation Pundit (say, as Tulsie himself, or some of them) or perhaps of some bot (hired by MICT/army/govt /or some “volunteer”?) or at very best – of some eager farang who tries to earn some sort of “Thainess” LOL.
Anyway, whatever – but it is way TOO obvious and undisguised bias, even though apparently tries to be sort of “fair & balanced.”
Thus, I don’t see anything said by him even worthy of commenting/replying on or arguing with.
Anyway, whatever Dan’s position is – at least I like one thing he said recently (well, of course it is not only one thing – there are few more): something about presumably readers/commenters here being adults and each able to figure out what is what (and who is who.
So far I consider present Dan’s style, as Hobby suggested earlier, as perhaps some sarcasm – or may be some sort of attempt at “variety in the midst of boredom,” so to say. (Sure, all the shit with “colored” revolutions eventually gets boring).
Moving on, continuing simply to IGNORE …
(GeGee)
Antipadshit – 5555555!
Your name says it all.
Dan, you said:
Oh come on, what kind of country is it if the PM has to stay and hide at a military camp while the military is guarding the Govt House? Can you imagine Obama has to stay at an army camp while the National Guards have to guard the White House? Perhaps waiting for aliens’ invasion?
(BD: I would rather ask, what kind of pseudo-yellow opposition is this? Been there, done that, didn’t move us anywhere we’d want to be today.)