Reds Fizzle Out After Marching To Govt’s Tune

That’s not the red shirt, that’s the red short rally. Maybe I’ll go out on a limb – hey yes I had wrongly called the yellow protest a day, right before those maniacs invaded Suvarnabhumi. But looks like the Million Man March utterly failed. The rather grotesque peaceful blood-letting aside – ah, and the M79 grenade attack -, Thaksin’s red marchers may tire themselves out within a not too long time. The metaphor of the “blood promise” as an exit strategy? We were also promised regime change, the end of the “junta,” but their numbers just don’t add up. Now it’s all about not looking weak and saving face.

Somehow one can feel but pity for Thaksin. The fugitive’s now even more isolated. His so dedicated foot soldiers failed. The so far biggest show of force on Sunday with many sightseers and curious onlookers on Rajdamnoen was a sweet Pyrrhic victory before reality set in on Monday morning when the dancing and chanting solidarity started marching. Many of them knowing, this march actually leads to nowhere. They barely reached the 11th Infantry Regiment, the ultimatum passed – now the search for blood started. And many protesters, already packed, simply went home.

No one treats the potential threat of violence instigated by a small red core faction or a third party lightly. But so far most reds were peace in person. They even waited for traffic lights on their travels in the city. Then why does their March to Democracy seem to fizzle out that early? Or – to be politically correct – why do they resort to a “tactical retreat”? Well first of all, it’s a monumental challenge to jolly along tens of thousands of people. It’s hot, it’s dirty, with no quick results to be expected … But if the yellows can do it, why not the reds? Even though the yellows’ street numbers were lower, they had a rigid, tightly organized support structure, they were “local,” always a step ahead of the government – and didn’t shy away from real escalation. Raising the stakes remains the reds’ only way out to achieve something.

The red leadership seems less malign, while the government didn’t yet blink for a second and played a cool steady waiting game by allowing the masses to protest, but according to the government’s terms that is. The red protesters walked into the trap. What so far looks like a sea of peaceful revolutionaries is in truth something of a gladiator show, tightly controlled, great for pictures, with only one outcome. This is by no means the reds’ deathblow. But they’re afraid to make mistakes. Their show of hesitation so far doesn’t strengthen them, but the government, while the Bangkokian rumor mill spins: the protest leaders are supposed to deliver, but broke. One rumor goes that Thaksin finances the U.K. education of red leader Veera Musikapong’s children. What do I know, but money is a factor.

Said CNN’s Dan Rivers in a live report:

“It’s unclear how many of the protesters are genuinely angry and want change – and how many are paid to be there.”

Read a tweet:

“There is no cash and the in-country MPs won’t put their hands in their own pockets. Game over.”

And don’t forget the economy. Indices pointing down would have given the reds the support from undecided Bangkokians, but by not joining the protest in masses they spoke clearly. Bangkok is not interested in regime change when things start looking better, and one can only guess why only a 100,000 people from the northern and northeastern rural areas made it to the capital. The red leadership had made the calculations. We were promised at least half a million. Sure, life is difficult in the provinces, but maybe not that miserable?

Continued recovery, strong demand for condos and Thai commodities and agricultural products speak in favor of the government. Life in the red north and northeast, to be honest, is not extremely bad under the current regime. Living conditions have not fallen extremely since Abhisit’s rise to power. It’s a cyclic thing, and in part because Thaksin’s policies have since been upheld, even though under different names in different packages. But there’s hardly more suffer and pain than before. Suffer and pain would drive the masses. It was not to be.

In truth the protest boils down to an ideological one, or to the fate of one single man. Yes, we all want democracy and the end of double standards, but that’s how politics are played in Thailand. It’s this elite or that elite. Analyzing the relatively meager red show of force can tell us this: Yes, the red shirt movement is here to stay and press for change. They got honorable goals, but have easily outwitted tactics, a not perfect timing combined with the lack of a clear strategy to go on no matter what – and Thailand is too peaceful and calm at the moment to really stir up the masses. Bangkok went on as usual, ignoring the protest once it started. Hey even army speakers won the day, they made some red shirts giggle.

Yes, after all the promises a red protest was behind time. All this protest does though – given there’s no escalation ahead – seems to strengthen the government. The Abhisit regime didn’t harm a fly so far, the red marchers were well protected and gently confined to their spaces. City staff even cleaned up their garbage and waste left behind around Royal Plaza and after they left the 11th Infantry Regiment. To Bangkokians finally the reds don’t look like a solution, they’re rather – sad to say – a nuisance. No citizens cheering and waving along the roads.

Fixing the real problems, Abhisit said in an address before the noon ultimatum passed, takes more than that noon ultimatum.

The reds may march on. But with no clear strategy and deep pockets they won’t be taken seriously, that day, when Thais are heading to the polls.

Last but not least: What a miscalculation, that blood campaign. Tweeted BangkokPundit:

For reds blood gimmick, they should do donation + gimmick. Red Cross probably can’t process all the blood, but some would be beneficial.

The Thai Red Cross won’t help red shirt protesters in blood donation procedures, we learn, and warns improper practice can cause paralysis and/or infection.

That’s potentially a lot of human lives wasted. Says something about a dark mindset. Guess who said this:

“Only here do they suck blood of people fighting for them. Go suck your parents’ blood instead.”

That’s right, Seh Daeng. Yes maybe he’s not that crazy after all.

No strategy, not united. The reds are not winning hearts by going after their own blood.

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Comments

30 Responses to “Reds Fizzle Out After Marching To Govt’s Tune”

Jaded on March 15th, 2010 8:00 pm

Not with a bang, but with a whimper …

(BD: Well it’s not over yet. Yet.)

Quality comment? 0 0
Hobby on March 15th, 2010 8:59 pm

“No citizens cheering and waving along the roads.”

You’ve finally lost it Dan, and I’m starting to wonder what your real agenda is. (Did the blocking incident really spook your business model that much, or do you think this new “provocative” style will attract more hits?)

My impression is that the reds are a long way from defeated, and have shown admirable restraint (as a stark contrast to the yellow backed PAD).

They are also moving slowly away from everything being about Thaksin, and the spotlight is starting to be shone on the REAL situation in Thailand – something the old elite institutions (and the A. Khan, StanG/Trep, Steven Young types) might find quite unwelcome in coming years.

Abhisit & Prem have also shown they are still very much afraid of real democracy – they will not be able to hide from elections forever – unless they want to be consigned to the Burmsese/Nth Korean table!

Slowly, slowly things are changing, thanks to that accidental democrat Thaksin, the politically activated & increasingly aware red movement, and NO thanks to the likes of Prem, and the “democrat” in name, but not spirit, deed or heart, Abhisit.

Quality comment? 0 0
GeGee on March 15th, 2010 9:17 pm

Hobby sometimes lately I’m wondering if you haven’t also “lost it.”

You seem obsessed that the ONLY answer, is what’s going on right at this moment in Bangkok.

The best post/commentary I have seen recently, is a post on NM by Submarine – it’s under the topic of “A show of strength, but then what?”

Someone will probably come out of the “intelligencia” newtork who hate everything this government, Abhisit and anyone else who is not being blinded by the “red light on the hill” and say this guy is Korn in disguise or something even more outrageous such as he’s StanG’s brother!!!! One of him is enough!

Submarine has a very simple message to the reds.

He sees much wrong in Thailand. But like me, he thinks this movement is currently hitching it’s ride, on a wrong set of stars.

But, if the real people have “patience” they will win.

As Thaksin seemed to be in a “corny” song mood tonight with his phone in speech – if Tulsie’s translations can be believed, I’ll leave you with one thought as made famous by … “We’ve Only Just Begun” …

Now I’m losing it too!!

I forgot to add one other thing Submarine made clear, was that they also need to “plan.”

Quality comment? 0 0
BangkokDan on March 15th, 2010 9:45 pm

Why should that blocking have the slightest influence? I don’t understand the connection. Me pleasing MICT is a little absurd, don’t you think? Business model?! Sounds like something that makes money … Again, I’m just observing. And I repeat myself yet again: This is the wrong tactic at the wrong point in time – and I have to defend them?! It’s a colossal waste of resources to say the least, leading nowhere, only alienating a going forward. Such a protest is a step backwards actually.

And heard Thaksin’s latest phone-in? He knows, things are not going well. Sounded more than confused. And in despair. A tragedy, really. Playing into the hands of the “regime.” They’re outsmarted too easily. They’re simply not up to the game without their master here. I wish it was different, I wish. For today it’s over Hobby. But not for tomorrow. Patience. Submarine’s NM comment mentioned by GeGee above is actually worth a very good read.

BangkokDan

Quality comment? 0 0
Hobby on March 15th, 2010 9:47 pm

The reason I’m speculating is because I have followed your posts here and on Twitter and recently there is a definite change in stance – after reading the numerous tweets describing the cheering & waving greeting the red march, how could you seriously write something like “No citizens cheering and waving along the roads”?

Quality comment? 0 0
Ordinary reader on March 15th, 2010 10:37 pm

Red shirts fizzle out? Not so fast, man. The influential lady accused by Sondhi of masterminding his assassination attempt suddenly appeared on UDD stage this evening. Remember her?

(BD: Interesting. Again, the post starts explicitly with “Maybe I’ll go out on a limb …)

Quality comment? 0 0
StanG on March 15th, 2010 11:05 pm

Reds haven’t said anything about the elites Bangkokians didn’t already know. Surayud got a country home in a forest reserve. Boo Hoo. Prem is a chairman of a company that built a golf course where they were not supposed to.

Are you kidding me?

Who cares. Let the men retire in peace, god knows they did their share for the country.

Who would take reds “revelations” seriously when their master bragged on TV about land swindled from a temple and reds wouldn’t say a word about it? Double standards, they say?

For years they have looked the other way when yellows raged about corruption, now it suddenly matters? Get out of here.

Reds are just trolling for endless arguments instead of thinking how to move the country forward.

The only hope is that their agenda was set from above and eventually they might start thinking for themselves, trying to solve their own problems.

Prem is not their problem, he’s not the one cheating them out of development funds or putting his cousins in local governments, he is not awarding local contracts to his cronies, he is not controlling their crop prices and so on.

Reds are fighting Thaksin’s war, not their own.

Disclaimer: I’m slightly inebriated.

Quality comment? 0 0
Robin on March 15th, 2010 11:23 pm

I sympathize with many of their grievances, but really, c’mon – drawing protesters’ blood? To throw at a building? (Or three buildings, if they follow through on what’s-his-name’s threat!) That’s where they lost most of my patience and the benefit of my doubt. They’ve got to come up with something better than wasting blood that could be used by the Thai Red Cross. It’s downright bizarre. Worse than Sondhi and the used women’s sanitary napkins.

Quality comment? 0 0
Jaded on March 15th, 2010 11:45 pm

A friend send me some shots taken of the crowd today. Bleeding old people and children seems to me to be a potential propaganda bonanza for both sides.

If they go all Gandhi on the establishment the shame factor must sooner or later begin to take its toll.

Maybe it’s time for a hunger strike? After all they have only brought enough food for a few days.

That’s not meant to be an ironic comment BTW. In matters like this Nietzsche makes perfect sense. “Where the will to power is lacking, there is decline.”

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Ordinary reader on March 16th, 2010 8:59 am

First thing I did after getting up was to check the two English newspapers and yes, they did not carry Thanying Viriya’s appearance at UDD stage last night (flanked by delighted top red shirt leaders). Of course, ThaiVisa did not mention it either. Well, the reds do not mind because they hardly read English papers anyway. They just enjoy watching their own People Channel TV station and cannot believe their eyes thinking how and why such a top city celebrity decided to join their cause!

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BangkokDan on March 16th, 2010 9:34 am

Well Robin after the opening cursing rituals we’ve come to voodoo and black magic. That’s not only normal in Thai politics, black magic was always important to Thaksin. I’m sure you remember the various rituals performed before and after his fall. Nothing out of the ordinary. Pretty basic stuff actually. Just imagine what the next ritual will be if Abhisit doesn’t give in to black voodoo. But see what’s possible with politics around here. So TRT is back. Transylvanians Rak Transylvanians.

BangkokDan

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Giles_iPresume on March 16th, 2010 11:25 am

“Fixing the real problems, Abhisit said in an address before the noon ultimatum passed, takes more than that noon ultimatum.”

Yes, and a start would by having a legitimate government.

This blog, in talking about tactics and timing, misses that fundamental point: these people have been disenfranchised (twice).

Quality comment? 0 0
StanG on March 16th, 2010 11:58 am

“… people have been disenfranchised …”

– but not those 70% whose elected representatives are still in the government.

Quality comment? 1 0
Catherine on March 16th, 2010 11:59 am

“To Bangkokians finally the reds don’t look like a solution, they’re rather – sad to say – a nuisance. No citizens cheering and waving along the roads.”

I too have to disagree with you. I was out for parts of four days and witnessed the cheering (I have it on video). Where were you?

As for those living in BKK thinking the red shirts were/are a nuisance … I had wealthy Thais coming up to me, explaining that they too believe the rural Thais are not getting a fair shake. In protest, they donned red too.

And on day four there was a noticeable addition to those joining the protests. They might not have bunked down at the bridge, but they showed up to cheer.

Alarming (to me) were the former yellows (they said) who admitted to being ready for Thaksin to come back.

(BD: Yeah Cat, but you are a red supporter, you said before you’ll head to the march. I’m talking about the undecided, or shall I say the “silent majority”?)

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Leosia on March 16th, 2010 12:10 pm

I think there’s a big difference between the organization, objectives and tactics of the reds and yellows. The PAD were supported by big money, the entire Thai media, ex-military personnel (PAD guards), unlimited firearms and a police force who were told to back-off. The reds have no such support, even less now Thaksin is skint and nowhere to be seen. It’s basically a poor people’s movement of the disenfranchised.

In the longer term when they realize that life is not much different under a semi-military communist style Abhisit government they will quieten down. Democracy is not right for Thailand anyway, and they waste an awful lot of time and resources pretending to move in that direction. A single party government in the style of China and Vietnam would be much more effective here.

Quality comment? 0 0
JJ on March 16th, 2010 1:51 pm

“Disenfranchised” as the reds’ raison d’être?

With Samak (R.I.P.) as prime minister I’d beg to become disenfranchised.

Quality comment? 0 0
Catherine on March 16th, 2010 5:26 pm

(BD: Yeah Cat, but you are a red supporter, you said before you’ll head to the march. I’m talking about the undecided, or shall I say the “silent majority”?)

Excuse me? I took photos of the march is all. I am not a red, yellow, or whatever colour. And I’m not for Thaksin, period. If anything, I’m hoping Abhisit will shake out of his lethargy and do something for his fellow countrymen.

And while I do feel that the rural poor have a good case, I’m also impressed with how the army are behaving through this all. So the only thing you can say is that I’m behind the Thai people.

Question: Where does your reply fit in with what I wrote? Bangkok people DID come out and cheer. In droves. All the way up and down Phaholyothin (I drove it). And who knows how many others donned red instead of cheering from the sidelines.

This my first time in reading your blog that you are not making sense … did you read my reply all the way through?

(BD: Sorry Cat, deeply sorry. Red certainly heats up the climate, doesn’t it! Must have misread your first comment here. Didn’t see cheering “neutral” crowds where I was, “just” reds. But what do I know. Sorry again. Yes, many of us are ready to give them our support. But not this way.)

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Bangkok Pundit on March 16th, 2010 5:45 pm

Hobby: Don’t understand why you are questioning Dan’s motives. Have been corresponding with Dan for a while about blogging and ad revenue and have seen nothing to suggest Dan is in it for the money. In fact, would say the opposite is the case.

Quality comment? 0 0
Catherine on March 16th, 2010 5:55 pm

Ah, yes – miscommunication. And I’m glad that’s cleared up From reading your blog, I know that we have similar opinions on politics (but you wouldn’t know mine because I usually stay away from this discussion).

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Hobby on March 16th, 2010 6:29 pm

BP & Dan: There were numerous reports of onlookers cheering the reds on (you even have such quotes on your site Pundit) – I was simply astounded (and disappointed) that Dan would try to spin things differntly.

The disappointment comes because I have greatly admired Dan’s blog (& Dan) for a long time, and IMO there has been a clear change in balance here of late (BTW, I am not the only one to detect that change).

I appreciate Dan publishing my slighly critical posts, and for the the opportunity to try to counterbalance when (I think) he has been a bit harsh on one side compared to the other.

I agree with Dan that the current protests are basically futile, as going up against a military/royalist backed government puts them on a hiding to nothing, but I cannot agree that the protests are pointless.

Overall, I am impressed with the red shirts’ restraint (so far), and even though it’s a little sick, I think the blood stunt is quite an ingenius way of making a nonviolent statement.

The government has performed OK too, but they have never been tested because the reds have been so well-behaved (no doubt they were very wary of the groundwork laid by Chirmsak & Prem for a crushing should the opportunity arise).

BTW, I know nothing about the monetary side of blogging.

Quality comment? 0 0
StanG on March 16th, 2010 7:40 pm

I just commented on BP but I think it’s just as relevant here.

Today, around noon, I saw a small red convoy driving down the soi. They waved at me, I waved back. It was a pleasant exchange. In fact I feel guilty for not being a bit more enthusiastic, they need moral support now more than ever. Next time I’ll remember that.

Does it make me a red supporter?

(BD: That’s compassion, StanG. Buy them a new shirt! Seriously, does the color matter? This is about their leaders and those leaders’ motives.)

Quality comment? 0 0
Hobby on March 16th, 2010 8:36 pm

StanG: I would be very surprised if you were a red supporter, but it doesn’t really matter much as you are not able to vote (unless I’m very mistaken about your nationality/status here).

The best way to test if reds have any real support is to hold an election (but Abhisit & Co. don’t like contesting elections, do they?)

Quality comment? 0 0
Leopold on March 16th, 2010 10:44 pm

I think we can all sympathize with all the protesters, yellow or red. The problem always lies with the leadership of the protest, to put it very simply.

Sondhi liked to use his supporters as a shield, and that is probably what Seh Daeng’s gonna too if he goes ballistic, which is likely considering his comments on Veera, Jatuporn and Nattawut.

Though commendable they may be for opting for the non-violence means, this blood donation thing has certainly put Sondhi’s tampon ritual to shame. And, this is not sheer disgust of scenes of blood flowing on street on TV, it’s that I doubt the red protesters clearly understand the risk of donating their blood this very inconvenient situation they were in.

Despite Dr. Weng the quack doctor’s assurances, there certainly were risks involving the blood donation. Were the medical staffs really qualified? Were mistakes bound to happen because of the disproportionate number of medical teams to the protesters donating their blood? Well, all of the red leaders got their blood suck out first, so surely no mix-up there. What if something wrong happened to the 1,006th, 3,079th and 4,730th? They don’t care a bit.

The best chance for the red movement is not a repeat of Iranian revolution but a repeat of the 2001 general election, with presumably a new white knight in a shining armor coming into rescue. If Abhisit stays too long, there is a price for him to pay as well. Chuan knows how costly that price is.

Election will come, and it can’t be later than late 2011. For the red movement alone, surely they can afford to wait. That they’re in a rush and haste makes their movement a Shakespearean one. There is currently no basis for momentum other than that of Thaksin. What the red leadership has done today is the complete disregard for their own supporters. And, I’m sincerely sorry that I can’t find any logic in it.

Quality comment? 0 0
antipadshist on March 17th, 2010 12:01 am

Bangkok Pundit:

Although I would not say (or suggest) that Dan does it for money, however I have also noticed his phrase about “no any Bangkok people cheered reds.”

While at your own blog, as I recall at least two posts have quotes from several sources that actually many people do cheer the reds. And I think I saw elsewhere confirmation.

So, I didn’t bother to point that out here, but it surely caught my attention. However looks like some people did point that out.

I do not know what Dan’s stance/motives are, but “colors” aside, merely for the sake of the accuracy of facts, I think what Hobby & Cat said was fair enough. Otherwise such inaccuracies might be considered by some as a sign of openly biased position (and yes, Hobby is right in using word – spin), while Dan himself, and many readers here, consider this blog “fair & balanced” (although to some this phrase is synonymous to Fox News).

BTW Hobby – your last blog post is very good I think, cheers!

And Dan I thought I add more after reading Hobby’s comment

I also think/feel like there is a certain – I don’t know what is it, a change as Hobby says, or what (honestly, I have not followed as much as Hobby, nor compared how it was before and after) – quite evident, shall we say, in contradiction with the facts, on many points.

A year ago, while I was still a “prolific commenter” (as Hobby once called me LOL) perhaps I would have even bothered to debunk MANY of your statements one by one, point by point. In fact, there are even some apparent fallacies used which I think are too easy to expose and defeat.

Now however, having got bored & tired with too much BS in Thai politics (and the way how Thai media blows out of proportions that whole show of “reds vs. yellows vs. pretty boy vs. square face”) – I thought like, nah, never mind.

But honestly, Dan, and frankly – I understand what Hobby means. It is as if somehow you intentionally choose some style/tone which sometimes seems like more like satirical (or if it is possible to say “flip flop satirical”) – almost in the style of Not The Nation or Harrisson George on Prachathai. And since Hobby said it – I see that I am not the only one who has noticed it (and he said he heard from others the same impression). That is why I guess at times it seems almost like surreal.

I mean – I can understand The Nation’s spinning, or even the Bangkok Post’s (not to mention Manager). But blogs usually rarely employ same tactics as MSM (unless they are some PAD blogs I guess).

So, here it is. I thought like I’d add this observation, or rather more like a comment on Hobby’s comment.

Quality comment? 0 0
StanG on March 17th, 2010 6:52 am

Hobby, to make my previous point clear – not everyone waving back at a cheerful procession is a “sympathizer,” not many people can return a frown when offered a smile.

Quality comment? 0 0
Oneditorial on March 17th, 2010 9:10 am

The good thing about this gathering is that it has helped to reduce the traffic in some parts of the city. Anyway, having been staying in the land of the reds, I am beginning to feel genuinely sympathetic for their situation. Not for what they stand for, but more because they have been exploited by Thaksin and manipulated by his cronies. It makes their fight for an equal society somewhat less credible albeit many of these people may be good-natured.

Quality comment? 0 0
Catherine on March 17th, 2010 9:36 am

… not many people can return a frown when offered a smile.

So very true. The smiles and spirited chants were intoxicating.

Quality comment? 0 0
Steve on March 17th, 2010 12:01 pm

“Hobby, to make my previous point clear – not everyone waving back at a cheerful procession is a ’sympathizer,’ not many people can return a frown when offered a smile.”

OK – the smiling onlookers were exhibiting just a Pavlovian/Thai response? And the ones cheering excitedly and waving something red? Perhaps they were just the more susceptible ones?

More than a little desperate of StanG even by his own standards.

Quality comment? 0 0
StanG on March 18th, 2010 7:01 am

Would a neighborhood red miss a chance to come out and wave his flag at a huge red convoy passing by?

I don’t think Dan implied there were no red supporters in Bangkok whatsoever, some where caught of guard and came out waving red socks.

I don’t think any neutral, silent majority, observer would have come up with this plan, unless he was taking a piss, of course.

Quality comment? 0 0
1976 on March 19th, 2010 2:31 pm

I’m not a red but want to wear red and join the march tomorrow to call for fairness in this society. I live on the outskirt of Bangkok but have a job downtown, on a highrise building full of middle-class (there are a few ML working here). My employer told everyone to hold neutrality but they tolerate people who bad-mouth red shirts. People dare not show that they agree with red shirts because it seems the employer will not tolerate them. However, I find so many people who agree with the reds (not because they want Thaksin back but they want fairness, freedom of expression, freedom of choice, etc.). I’ll see for sure that the government’s not going to provoke the crowds then I’ll join the march tomorrow.

Quality comment? 0 0

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