Reds’ One Big Bang? – Or: Civil War? We’ll See
Doomsday is the word of the day again with the reds’ million-man march in Bangkok approaching on March 14th. Well, they’re lucky if they get a 100,000 people, a seasoned observer told aB.come after the FCCT’s recent press conference of the red shirts’ United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship UDD.
Red leader Jaran Ditthapichai assured us they’ll get half a million or more people from mainly the north and northeast, assuming their pick-up trucks get gas – didn’t you hear the rumor about a government-sponsored closure of gas stations? And assuming they can pass security checkpoints.
That’s right, the reds claim that the government instructed bus companies to not transport red shirts to Bangkok. With tens of thousands of red shirts and their thousands of pick-ups soon stretching all the way from Sanam Luang to Rama V expect some major traffic nuisance. Well the red shirts are giving the prime minister a choice. Dissolve the house. Or suppress us.
Couldn’t count anymore how often Khun Jaran (picture below) mentioned the “or suppress us.” But questions by the Asia Times’ Shawn Crispin made him even go a step further. Couldn’t count how often “civil war” got mentioned. Civil war as a possibility. But the red shirts would be innocent.
UDD spokesman Sean Boonpracong gave the whole event an air of righteousness. Said after the coup in 2006 there was death silence with girls in camouflage dresses dancing and flowers on tanks, but there was silence while Thaksin got demonized and the aristocracy succeeded in maintaining the privileges of ancient times.
Some four months later Thaksin became part of “our democratic movement,” Sean said. Crowds got bigger – until the reds’ “international reputation took a beating after the Pattaya and Bangkok incidents” last April. But they’ve learned from the past, we were told. Since then all protests were peaceful and yes, the “government wants to paint us as a violent mob, but the worst will not materialize.”
That was Sean, a smooth, a good talker. I’m not debating the intelligence of Jaran Ditthapichai, but he didn’t make everyone feel comfortable in there as Sean did. Intentionally. I don’t mind Khun Jaran meeting the other night with the October 14th Generation, with “leftists, former guerillas, communists,” said Jaran. “They think there will be violence,” he smiled. “I tried to convince them, but they didn’t believe me.”
Well Khun Jaran, after listening to you for quite some time I don’t really believe you as well. And this is why:
According to you the red shirts from all over the country will start entering Bangkok after nationwide rallies on March 10th. On the 13th every road leading to Bangkok will be turned into a caravan of reds. Bangkok’s middle class will love it.
They’ll not welcome you with open arms. Not debating here about the rights and wrongs of the current administration, but I think the patience this time is very limited and not much is needed until Bangkokians have had it.
UDD spokesman Sean (picture below) assured “we will structure our rally strictly. No weapons.” Regional group leaders will control their own people. If something happens, people will surround that something happing.
But what realistic objectives are the reds fighting for?
“Our aim is very small,” smiled Jaran. “We force Abhisit to dissolve parliament. We need a big demonsration to achieve this small aim. Our strategy is to give him a choice, yes you heard of the Theory of Choice. Almost a 100% of people don’t believe he’ll give in. But he has to choose. Suppression of the red shirts. Or dissolve parliament.”
Well I’m sure among the nearly a 100% of people who think the government will not give in. Jaran: “I believe that Abhisit will dissolve parliament. He’ll see the biggest demonstration in Thai history.”
How glad I was that a feisty Bangkok Post reporter followed up with this question:
“Are you copying the yellow shirts with pressure tactics? And you think this is democracy? What’s your ideology. And why you always mention members are former communists?”
By then Dr. Weng Tojirakarn (picture below) had joined the panel, the doctor who once himself lived in the jungle and opened a clinic for the poor. Seeing him there actually I thought of a Sondhi Limthongkul look-alike. And as fervent was his rhetoric:
“The past is the past. We want democracy under the king. Whoever is against this is not UDD. But in economics and politics the bureaucratic regime drags Thailand back. We have to overthrow the bureaucratic system. By nonviolent means, for the rule of law, for the good of the people and the return of the 1997 constitution.”
Overthrow of the bureaucratic regime.
Well then, in a few days “we will be all over Thailand,” smiled Jaran. “An incredible logistical challenge for us,” assured Sean.
“Some of you are frightened,” Jaran went on. “Bangkok traffic will be paralyzed. I’m sorry to say that.”
We learn that they distanced themselves from Seh Daeng, Pallop Pinmanee and the likes. They want to prevent another Songkran 2009. “No one wants to die for democracy,” we learn. “We’re back using peaceful methods again. So what will happen these next weeks? Some incidents we cannot control.”
Jaran: “If we would adopt violent means, we would only need some 20,000 well-trained people. But because we adopt peaceful means we need 500-600,000 people.”
Dr. Weng: “It’s the nonviolent way. Last time’s violence was a plot of the military and bureaucratic regime. We were rather stupid fools for what happened at the interior ministry. We learned a lot.”
Still, if “Abhisit suppresses us, maybe there will be civil war,” Jaran said smilingly. “Nobody knows. If the red shirts get suppressed or the demonstration is dissolved, no one knows what will happen.”
They’ll stop if they cannot go ahead, Jaran assured. “But we will try. We already let Abhisit run the country for too long. We must kick this government out.” No coup, no revolution. “Just dissolve the parliament. We force him to choose.”
The panel seemed confident enough that their actions are carried by popular support. Bangkok’s yellow middle class is joining them, we learn, and “more than 70% of soldiers and 80% of the police all over Thailand are red. We will neutralize them,” said Jaran.
Well, if that’s what the Thai people want I probably lost touch with what’s going on. “I’d like to say we will not declare civil war,” Jaran concluded. “The government will if they suppress us violently.”
The reds, our sacrificial lambs.
What a prospect.
And what strategy again?
My hope is that the reds will distance themselves from both Thaksin and the radical element in their ranks. They have some very legitimate grievances that are often outweighed by those with a specific agenda and a lust for the spotlight.
In the early DTV days I was talking with someone with influence on the UDD. I suggested that rather than concentrate on protests that they should build a strong network working toward the next election. My feeling is they may well be starting to go that way and all this huffing and puffing is a face saving mechanism. Where they really need to work hard is on the ground with the people. The UDD has sometimes forgotten this small but very significant tactic of Thaksin’s.
Every person in Thailand remembers the picture of Thaksin riding a motorbike helmet less down a dirt road in Isaan. That kind of publicity is the glue PR firms dream about and make advertising executives salivate.
Both the UDD and the PTP have to figure this out. The PTP has to find a clean decent sort of a person to lead them, someone the country can feel relatively comfortable with (if possible). Eventually, unless there is an armed takeover by the military, there has to be an election. What better way to get their point across than to slaughter, figuratively, their opponents by winning a huge majority of both the seats and popular vote. It would be hard for any institution now to strike that down without a huge backlash.
Thanks for the report, but why so cynical?
Dissolving parliament seems a most reasonable request given the UNREASONABLE way the government came about.
PAD/yellows set the precedent – they still have not been punished in any way, and they didn’t even have the decency to call for elections!
Should the UDD/reds just sit back, watch the double standard continue, forget all that has been and is happening?
I think they have weighed up their options, they know their country, their people, their enemy – a peaceful protest may be their best shot, and a few traffic jams is a small price to pay for a fairer society.
I think the cynicism would be better directed towards Abhisit – why is he afraid to dissolve parliament?
Why is his attorney general pushing to seize the 46 billion immediately, preempting the appeal process?
What’s happening regarding the PAD leaders prosecution? Reds never seized any airports did they?
Why is the 258 million baht donation case stalled?
How come certain “connected” projects at Map Ta Phut get the go ahead?
Sorry I won’t go on as I know you are a bit touchy about politics nowadays, but hopefully you get the picture.
Am all with you Hobby, but the end doesn’t justify these means.
The reds’ election victory is a given I assume, why not bet on patience to outsmart the current regime of thieves over time.
Let them be defeated by their own arrogance.
Do it the clean way the pretend to represent. But heard the words “civil war” way too often at that presser. Yes, they got their very legitimate grievances, aims and goals, but not much of a constructive strategy came across. Someone told me Khun Jaran got tricked by a mean question. Well, then just answer it with more competence.
“Limit” it to a peaceful, festive, powerful event. But not all these “ifs” and “whens” and “no one knows” … That’s cheap fear mongering.
They seem to put the ball in the government’s court and just wait for something to happen. Whatever.
And no yob, am not championing Bangkok’s yellow middle class, but a voice of reason.
Just mimicking the yellows? Let’s be slightly more creative.
That press conference sure didn’t win me over, ignoring Sean’s repeated remarks that we people in there were reading too much of the English-language papers’ anti-red propaganda. Is there such, Khun Sean?
BangkokDan
I have been very surprised this past week at hearing some very angry comments about Sino-Thais from BKK-Isaans. They are fed up with all the condescension and racism and being called too stupid, too black and too corrupt by the very people who benefit every day from the Isaan labor that built most of BKK and that makes most of BKK go every day. And they are really pissed off at the endless conspiracy to prevent the representatives they keep voting for to take positions in government and start allocating some of the pie away from BKK towards the NE and north, i.e., infrastructure, irrigation, better schools, better hospitals, micro loans, a program to alleviate CP’s enormously profitable seed monopoly which acts like a big vacuum hose sucking money out of the entire Isaan population, etc.
Whether this anger and resentment translates into a supersized and relatively peaceful demonstration is another question of course. It seems to me that it all depends on the numbers. Anything less than 100,000 is failure for sure. Between 100,000 and 300,000 is open to debate. 300,000 plus and they might force the election. Not an unreasonable goal considering that three elections that went in their favor have been overturned by the Sino-Thai BKK crowd that is now hypocritically masquerading around under the banner of rule of law, transparency, anti-corruption, etc.
If they do manage to force an election, they will probably win the election as they have the past three or four elections.
And then the same BKK crowd that’s crowing about rule of law, corruption, transparency etc. right now, will immediately U-turn back to being against corruption investigations which will of course feature the GT200 and Anapong, the Phuket Democrats and their 41 percent kickback rate on the new Phuket Convention Center and, the latest form of corruption, “policy corruption” which leaves just about every Democrat of note at risk, from the mega-brothel minister of commerce lady, to Korn and his family’s extensive BKK real estate which all benefited enormously from Korn’s low interest rate policy, to Abhisit, CP/True, etc, etc.
And if the other side gets back in, the yellow/PAD will face prosecution for the airport fiasco, the Government House fiasco, King Power, a leading contributor to the Democrats will face an investigation into what possible basis are they occupying twice their allocated space at the BKK airport, etc.
So the stakes for the folks sitting on the inside are very high. But it all depends on the numbers …
I basically agree with you Dan – why don’t they just wait for the inevitable election victory?
However, guys like Dr. Weng have been involved in this much longer than me, and presumably they have weighed the options & risks – perhaps they see more risk to their cause if they do nothing?
The peaceful/festive/party idea is a good one – let’s hope that attitude can be instilled, and that the (IMO, justifiable) anger can be held in check.
It’s a real chess game – not sure who will fall into who’s trap.
You and the “feisty” BKK Post lady seem to share the same legitimate concern about the traffic chaos when thousands of pick-up trucks descend into the city (I was told they plan to come down by boats too). However, Dr. Weng said in his response (unfortunately in Thai and no one translated) that holding a peaceful and nonviolent demo is guaranteed by the constitution. This means that as long as you don’t break the law like seizing the Govt House or the airports like the PAD, then any group can do it – causing traffic problems for motorists is just one consequence just like when unhappy farmers demanded better prices for their products.
Yes, dissolving parliament and holding fresh elections is the simple and best way to end this impasse. But Abhisit will not do it because he knows the Democrats will lose again and rival Puea Thai will be in power. He was just boasting when he said the Democrats would get 240 seats in the next elections. Puea Thai in power is the worst scenario for Abhisit’s backers, especially the military and elitist people like Khun Vongthip, the regular newsletter contributor to this blog.
We can only wait and see what happens on the 14th. The military may crush the reds, who will flee to the jungle in the same way as Dr. Weng did after the Thammasat massacre in 1976. But the turmoil will continue because the situation is more complicated than 1976, but Thaksin’s case is just one factor (his opponents try hard to magnify it).
I’ve an idea. Bangkok could just build a huge, high wall to surround itself and protect itself from the masses of angry peasants. When the peasants try to get over the wall, Bangkokians could pour boiling oil over the wall to scald the peasants and drive them back. At some point, the peasants would give up and go away, and then Bangkok could continue living happily with its preferred status quo lifestyle.
Oh, but wait, that wouldn’t work, because Bangkok itself isn’t purely yellow shirt, Sino-Thai, middle class elites. For Bangkok to be Bangkok, it needs millions of brown-skinned, poorly educated, probably red shirted peasants who will work for low wages. The maids, security guards, construction workers, bar girls, window washers, drivers, and so on. Hmmm. Those red shirts would also have to be trapped inside Bangkok within the huge wall, in order for the important people of Bangkok to continue the lifestyle they’re trying so hard to protect. What’s the point of Bangkok if one can’t get a cheap massage or have a driver for one’s Benz? Within the wall, then, there inevitably would be revolt from those necessary-but-troublesome peasants as well. So even if Bangkok walled itself off, the important people would still have trouble someday …
Hmmm, what to do, what to do …?
Thanks Dan for lightening up of the further confusion the reds are bringing upon the country.
Each of those leaders it seems has their own personal confusing agenda. But honestly personally I think most of them are just up for Thaksin’s money. Remember, he still must have billions abroad.
Also, how can they fight for democracy, with undemocratic means and even worse, for a man who denounced and raped democracy himself so badly.
Again for all farang greenhorns out there, winning elections with buying off all province and town heads, and paying for each and every person, that is not democratic (as most reds and pro-reds claim). What a confusing goal: Bring back dictator, biz-man and demagogue Thaksin? No thanks chaps!
Definitely prefer Abhisit with his honest means (yes, yes controlled by other men. But did they split the country into two camps like Thaksin did? And brought hatred, deaths, violence and bad morals to the country. No!)
just join UDD and Progressive Democracy Thailand on Facebook and you learn what it’s really about. It’s about protecting Thaksin and bring him back and slamming anyone else thinking otherwise.
No word about fight for the poor or real democracy. Just a big fake movement the reds (from all leaders!). I suspect deeply especially this Sean is deeply involved and paid by one man, as others you hear roaring about revolution, democracy and help the poor, are most likely too.
Pity for all those red underdogs, who some really want a fairer Thailand. But this definitely never will happen under Thaksin and his paid men.
Jaran seems to want to have it both ways, the threat of civil war to force dissolution on one hand, and the moral high ground of peaceful protest on the other.
You don’t have to be middle class to not want the city to grind to halt. Do people really think it will only be the middle classes who are affected?
If in forcing a dissolution the reds convince people they are as out of control as PAD at their swivel-eyed worst, then the resulting election is not going to do them any favors.
I think Ricefield Radio has it about right for their future plans. I’m hoping the same things he is.
Who here really thinks that the Democrats will allow another election to take place in Thailand in the near future? The instant they do, they’re gone and they know it.
And then what? Allow the reds back in? Allow the precedents they’ve set at the Supreme Court to be used against them? Allow for investigations into their shady dealings and practices? Allow for the royal pardon to be accepted?
I don’t think so. The military and Democrats need each other, and if one of them sinks, both do. So waiting around for this promised election two years from now isn’t an option for the reds after all that has happened since Abhisit took power.
Dan, you seemed to have stirred up all the banned posters from ThaiVisa with this.
Whilst they are only too willing to throw feces at the Bangkok people, who they see as the root of all evil, they completely ignore the up country phu yais and overloads, who have held sway over the “grass roots” people (as some like to call them), since time began.
Let’s hear it about them and how to flush them away, as well.
And if you look at the politicians where do a good many of the more odorous amongst them come from? Voilà (!) most seem to come from upcountry and not Bangkok – with a couple of obvious examples.
Let’s be realistic.
These events are about groups of “elites” on ALL sides and not a lot to do with the Thai people who DO need help.
Because the goals they are after cannot be accomplished through elections.
It’s kind of fun reading how all the farangs here can fix Thailand “if only.” Are there not any Thais who speak and write English well enough to get on this bandwagon and speak out?
Will this strange political world end with a bang or a whimper?
I still don’t understand how the various beneficiaries of the enormous corruption opportunities that have the approval of this administration could hope to retain the spoils if the government were to change. If ever there was a strong incentive for a military crackdown on dissent it must surely be that they have now created legal precedents for forthcoming administrations to investigate some of the more interesting budget choices and legal decisions of the last few years. Surely, if Thaksin’s political impact on telecommunications in Thailand is a legitimate subject for investigation then the 3G saga might be at the center of a future investigation also? Those “incredibly” expensive Swedish jet fighters might offer a more fertile ground for inquiry than the comparatively cheap useless blimps and bomb detectors …
How do the people actually in charge, and those nominally in charge, hope to hang on to what they have gained? Is there an endgame here?
It would seem that in their obsessive pursuit of Thaksin, the present government and behind-the-scenes ruling group has unintentionally and without thorough due diligence and foresight, opened up an infinite can of worms that will be crawling around Thailand and Thailand politics for many years to come … just contemplate the idea of “policy corruption” and ponder how many variations, interpretations and prosecutions might be inspired by this idea whenever the reins of power change hands …
Federico: If the election of ones’ representatives is not seen as a start on the road to accomplishing goals, then the situation is hopeless (which can lead to desperation).
Are you implying that things are rigged to such an extent that the judiciary (and military or “others”) can easily negate any “unwanted” election victory?
Or have I misinterpreted, and instead you are implying something about what their goals might be?
yob, I live in Bangkok suburbs and move around the city, to several different locations almost daily, but I have yet to see any road blocks or any unusual army placements around town of the kind you mention.
Can you tell me where you’ve seen these road blocks manned by the military?
Thanks
Problem is this million-man march looks like a desperate move.
Fact is it will even widen the divide between upcountry and the urban middle class, a middle class that’s not too unhappy with the current peace and state of affairs.
Yellow administration, red administration, whatever administration, these people are fatalist and pragmatist enough to know that nothing will really change with a changing of the guard.
On the contrary, support in Bangkok for Abhisit seems to be quite solid and as solid is the rejection of a red invasion.
That’s just how it is, no need to sugarcoat an ugly truth. There is no such thing as solidarity in Thailand.
And interesting thought Federico. Yet another Pandora’s box.
Now that would be even less democratic than the current regime, wouldn’t it.
BangkokDan
GeGee – well said about the upcountry situation and the more you delve deeper you will see that Thai politic is just a playground for the rich. If you’re lucky then some benefits however brief a period this last, will come your way until the next change.
Thai politic is one gigantic monopoly games play by the elites. Lets make reforms, lets protest … what for? Well to either make more money or get the Get Out Of Jail card FREE.
We, the people (or at least one Thai here) can get quite blasé as what’s the point in believing in Thai politic when we don’t even know what that really means.
All we seem to know is how to support some good looking, well educated Thais that speak English well or very rich, extravagant thief that flies around the world playing at being a fugitive. All about face, all about looking good nothing to do with what real political issues.
Thai politic is like watching Thai soap opera, none of it is real.
Guess real politic is too ugly for us as we so believe in superficial beauty.
Let’s face it, this is the country that can launch an effective media campaign to change the natural color of your skin. Make you become Korean, Japanese or European (but never Thais). What else can we expect in our politics.
Let me predict … soon we can have reality TV of Thaksin and family just like the Kadashians on E!
Chdarat: Do you have any thoughts why it’s like that?
(Why Thai democracy seems so “undeveloped”?)
In case they get lost in the “noise,” and for those that don’t use facebook, the UDD’s stated goals are listed here.
Thanks for the clarification yob – at times like this I’m not sure it’s such a bad thing to have some military around points like those.
If they started blocking access to major highways etc., then I guess one could have reason to get worried. In the meantime enjoy Bangkok and the heat.
Hobby: The red shirts’ political party won an election in 2007. What good did that do? Aside from the fact that Samak and Somchai were eventually removed on pretty dubious grounds, it’s not like they were really allowed to govern during the time they were in office. Why should things be any different this time?
My understanding of the red shirts (a mixture of first-hand information, observation, and speculation) is that they are not quite sure exactly what they want (or better, different people want different things). Either way, most all of them want more than Abhisit’s resignations. Some want to overthrow the “amaht” (that itself means different things to different people). Others want to govern the country. Still others want to reinstate the 1997 constitution. And a good chunk want to bring back Thaksin. None of these things can be accomplished through an election under the present system.
In this sense, the dissolution of the House is simply a goal that everyone can agree with; besides, it’s smart on their part not to raise expectations too much. But make no mistake about it. Whatever the ultimate goal, they need more than an election to accomplish it. They need an election that takes place in a context where the “ancien régime” is too weak to prevent it from having any real consequence.
It’s amusing to see how many farangs cheered when Thaksin was outsted by the coup and now a view years later as I often read here, so many of you now want Thaksin back, or at least are starting to believe the shouts of the freedom fighters in red???
What has changed since then, and what do you guys think will happen if the red shirts will have their (rigged) elections again soon? Vote buying and dictatorship back via same clan as before! Please give this also non-perfect government (Abhisit is trying his best) time to educated people more and clear first the old mess up, before we jump into the next one. Most Asian countries are called democratic but most really don’t work like that. It’s a social, hierarchy difference within our families and companies etc. also in our non political lives. If good or bad may be discussed, but trying to enforce democratic elections just for the sake of the name of it, will only bring back the dictator Dr. T. back for sure.
This kind of fake of demoCRAZY we definitely don’t want to see again!
No thank you!
Please be realistic and don’t believe in those lies the red leaders are promising you. They are thinking for their own pockets mainly and it will never be about helping the poor or a non military (read below) controlled government, speak free working democracy.
Many of you above also really don’t understand that the military itself is not a single unit with political unity toward the Democrats. They played the same influential role also under Thaksin, but just with his own men in most critical higher rankings in place.
So forget about trying to bring them all under the democratic hat. It’s really not like this at all.
Please give Asia some time for Western style democracy and let the judges work if they finally do so now!
Corruption is a big problem everywhere, but changing back to Thaksin is definitely the worst solution for Thailand currently. And this will eventually will happen if the reds will have it there way.
Federico, don’t they also need proper goals, which are focused and not as fragmented, as you indicate here?
Effective movements throughout history have always need to have a goal which unifies them – even if only on the surface.
To date Thaksin has been and has provided that unifying element.
It is doubtful that just a goal to “overthrow a government” without real reason will do as a replacement.
I would also add another rather important element into this discussion and this is – people.
People who are capable of leading and not just taking orders.
Without real leaders (apart from Thaksin) who are able to explain the goals and “why it is so,” the movement from the perspective of those outside, it will continue to look like little more than a one trick pony put in place by one man to do his bidding.
Thanks Federico (for your sadly realistic assessment).
Nong – I was one of those farang who was glad to see the back of Thaksin, and foolishly accepted the coup – but the events since the 2007 election shamed me, and once Abhisit came to power and talked about reconciliation but kept Kasit, the writing was on the wall.
It’s been all downhill since then and Abhisit does not even pretend to be about reconciliation anymore.
As for Thaksin comiing back or not, I think each party should take a clear policy to the next election regarding Thaksin, and if the electorate elect a party who wants to bring him back, then I say let them have what they want (as after all they have had three years of propaganda to convince them how bad he was, and they have also had a taste of the alternative).
Nong.
Finally a genuine Democrat Party supporter is commenting on this site. Really pleased to have someone like you clarifying the approach of Thailand’s current dispensation. My understanding of the direction of current governance is that it is an attempt to support a status quo but of course we all might be terribly mistaken in these assumptions. As a supporter of the Democrat party I wonder if you can suggest possible answers to the following questions?
1. What would be your expectations about the potential of the Democrat-led government to achieve progressive goals?
2. Can you suggest what progress for Thai society or simply what political developments we might be likely to see if the current government lasts another year?
From my own perspective I regard the Democrat Party as representing the desire to resist any and all socially progressive forces and accelerate the post war processes that facilitated the concentration of resources, wealth and political power in the hands of a relatively small group in Thailand. As this process of agglomeration is a distinctive feature of some democratic polities like the United States I don’t really understand why are the forces of reaction so frightened of even pseudo-democratic institutions? Setting aside conflicts associated with the local politics of personalities, clans and special interest groups, surely the redshirt agenda plays right into the hands of the establishment? I really don’t understand what is so scary about the development of some kind of social democracy. The function of such a system is to preserve wealth in the hands of a difficult to enter elite and render the population into a lumpen consumer class who gradually enslave themselves through debt. Surely this system, which has served so many other societies well, would be broadly applicable to Thailand? The red shirts are actively campaigning for progressive political changes which would, providing the current holders of wealth and power are competent, preserve the position of the elite for the forseeable future. Why can’t the Democrat Party and the military recognize the enormous benefits that will result from a “fairer” society as promoted by Thaksin and his followers. Why don’t they hijack this agenda in the manner of Bismarck in 19th century Germany for instance? Of course such changes would inevitably attack unmerited privilege. But one has only to look at the history of Germany or the Austro Hungarian Empire to see clear examples of entrenched military, aristocratic and bureaucratic power peacefully coexisting with social democracy for decades.
What I really don’t understand about supporters of the current government is that you seem to believe that your property, status and privilege will be preserved by the politics of social division and repression. Many of Thailand’s neighbors suffered greatly from revolutionary situations. Why make or support reactionary choices that push Thailand towards internal social conflict? Is the belief that another savage repression of dissent, perhaps through another massacre, is necessary to preserve the current status quo? Is the function of the current leaders of Thailand to goad the disenfranchised into a revolt?
Jaded, there is much to agree with in your last post. However, I would appreciate a little more detail regarding the line, that the red shirts are “actively campaigning for progressive political changes.”
Perhaps it is due to my poor Thai language skills, (and not being Thai) but I have yet to see/hear/read, much more than quick slogans like, “overthrow the government,” “bring back democracy” and many about the return of Thaksin.
Where are the statements about really helping the poor in Thailand?
Thaksin telling people, if he came back he would “fill their pockets with money, in six months” is hardly a credible policy.
GeGee: This is from Hobby’s link given earlier in this thread.
These are the UDD (red shirt) objectives as stated by one of their spokesmen. Obviously they will attempt to be all things to all men but equally obviously the attempt to label them as dedicated Thaksin supporters who campaign solely for the purpose of facilitating his return and reinstatement is far from being the whole truth.
1) Achieving the goal of establishing a genuine democracy that has the king as our head of state, with political power belonging exclusively to the people. We reject any attempt, past or future, at using the monarchy to silence dissent or advance a particular agenda.
2) Dissolving the 2007 constitution and restoring the 1997 constitution, which may then be amended through a transparent, consultative and democratic process.
3) Bringing Thais together in an effort to solve our political and socio-economic problems, recognizing that such efforts must stem from the power of the people.
4) Implementing the rule of law, due process and a system of equal justice for all, free of any obstructions or doublestandards.
5) Uniting all Thais who love democracy, equality, and equal justice within all facets of society, in an effort to deconstruct and move beyond the Amartyatippatai (Aristocracy) system.
6 ) Using exclusively nonviolent means to achieve these objectives. We are a peaceful movement, whereas the aristocracy maintains its power through the barrel of a gun. We know that the coming struggle will be as long as it is painful. But our cause is virtuous, just as the status quo is unacceptable. In the coming months, the establishment will use every means at its disposal in its efforts to counter us, including lies and propaganda, legal wrangling, intimidation and violence. This is an opponent that supported the hijacking of our airports and the use of military force to bring down an elected government and suppress the dissenting public. But whatever they throw at us, we will endure it, and we will succeed.
Let me take the liberty to answer your questions to Nong, Jaded, since you need answers from a Democrat supporter, and this power-mad-yellow-propaganda-following-and-Isaan-baby-eating Democrat supporter has been following this blog for a long time now.
Well … to give you an equally long and painfully boring response that most would probably just skim through … here goes.
1. What progressive policies or initiatives do I expect the current administration to achieve?
None. For the time being, the government needs not to achieve any big agenda except maintain a relative stability. Thanks to the red occasional rabble rousing, the government is succeeding.
2. Given one more year, what progressive success I would like to see?
Now, like every political party supporter, I do have a wishlist, and on top of the list is the National Saving Fund scheme, basically a social security for those in the informal sector.
It is something that, during six years under the ideal one-party majority TRT, could have been achieved but had not.
Finally, the bill is on the verge of being submitted to the cabinet. Is it really that important for this govt to fulfill this promise in order to win my vote at the next election? Not exactly. As I have said, relative stability is enough … for now.
Thanks for the response Jaded, but I was already aware of those comments.
I don’t have a problem with them on face value, but what I don’t see is any meat & potato issues being addressed.
These points you raise will benefit all Thais, but I can’t helpl but think, behind it is the desire to do this for one Thai more than the other 65 million. Until they can come up with a platform which also addresses the societal issues in need of attention I can’t believe them.
Leopold, what a long winded fart you just let out. Why not just say: “Viva la stability!”
The whole Thaksin brouhaha reminds me very much of what happened to Estrada in the Philippines. You had a political and elite outsider (nouveau riche Thaksin and wealthy actor Estrada) come in and upset the way things were done by sharing some of the spoils with the poor. Of course they were corrupt, but that is not the real issue. The real issue is that the Bangkok and Manila elites were getting cut out, or feared getting cut out. And when the elite feel that way they step in to stop it every time. I was no fan of Thaksin, but almost feel for the guy. At any rate, this issue is now larger than Thaksin and will not go away.
Presumably readers of this blog have seen Korn’s recent statement? Is it actually beyond the comprehension of most of these people that the less privileged sections of the society might actually have a rational view of the political situation and vote accordingly?
I would characterize this kind of thinking as the “let them eat cake” view.
A Thai acquaintance of mine summarized this view pithily to me recently. Don’t dare contradict or presume to influence the views of your social superiors. You dirty, dark skinned, ignorant, poor people should keep your mouths shut and do what you are told. Get down, dam you. Get down!
It seems to me that history would suggest ancien regimes led by people with attitudes like this tend not to end well.
Very well put Jaded, the core of the dilemma in a nutshell:
Dan, a commenter on BP must have read your sidebar comment:
“handstied – Discussion 26 : 07/03/2010 at 06:48 PM26
A well known Bangkok blogger worries that he’s not convinced about the security reassurances from the UDD leaders. The point he should be worried about is what will be thrown into the mix by the blue shirts’ masters. It is scary indeed having Kasit at the apparent helm during the UDD demonstration. He is a belligerant trouble maker and his snout feeds at the trough of the elites pockets. Moreover, the unelected PM further elucidates through his actions that he is not the one holding the strings of power, and his absence from any violence perpetrated on the protesters will save his face? None of these plans are without a darker insidious motivation.”
Read more: http://absolutelybangkok.com/reds-one-big-bang-or-civil-war-well-see/#comment-10885#ixzz0hVM3TJIv“
Interesting stefan.
Whatever happens, if something happens we’ll never know what really happened. The reds will be blamed, even if they’re apostles of peace.
The timing is wrong. The timing is a clear indication they’re upset with the Thaksin verdict, but the aims and goals they have remain fuzzy and vague. Even though we all know what the real aim is. It’s an honorable aim.
Again, the reds are mimicking the yellows. Follow due process. Be an underdog model example. Time is on your side even if you have to wait.
Due process means elections, but also the red elite doesn’t seem to care.
BangkokDan
Agreed Dan, but regarding the “red elites” let’s not mince words here – the corrupt Chao Por or even Newin C. are hardly “elite” in the magnitude of the 2% who run the show in this country.
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