Reds’ Peace Farce
As tweeted the night before this day, time’s up, the red shirts have to either force the government to act or pack their bags. Now look what strategy they present: by pushing along women and children, with flowers and their bare hands, they want to force soldiers to go back to their barracks. And all this in the unmistakable fashion of Thai party mood. And guess what, without much ado troops just leave. To relocate.
That was not the intention of the reds. Because their strategy came from the lowest drawer, a strategy that counts on peer pressure and is – as happy as it looks like – a proactive confrontation. Hey they need some sort of success, understood. But by luring their own people into a trap they at least got some numbers. And a trap it was: no own reflection left, what we witness is engineered collective herd instinct. And then what?
Clear as daylight now why the red core leaders waited until the very last minute to announce their plan. Their only chance left is an element of surprise. They know this “peaceful disarming” of soldiers isn’t popular among their own ranks. But hey, peer pressure and the utter determination of a few thousand. As a symbolic protest against military intervention in politics? Oh dear, want me to list the interferences under Thaksin?
It’s this now what the red leaders call a “clear strategy.” The soldiers leave. And then what dear reds? Smilingly pretending peace and throwing oil on the fire. Desperately looking for some martyr and blood, but the army avoids confrontation at all cost.
There are many many people very very upset in Bangkok with this theater dragging on. There is only so much people are willing to take. But hey government, you’ve been apathetic for too long. The ball’s in your court. If the reds can’t win together, let them lose together. Clean up the place. Or elections wouldn’t be such a bad thing maybe. But then what?
The reds’ acts we witness since some two weeks now speak louder than their words. According to Wikipedia the Democrats in the 2007 election got slightly more proportional votes than the winning party. I’m not saying, I’m just saying.
So soldiers are pulling out and relocate to other places. And then reds what?
One’s tempted to say, well, isn’t that a dream government showing so much restraint.
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Well, why is Abhisit so afraid to go to an election?
Like it or not, there a doubts about PM Abhisit’s legitimacy, and those doubts will not go away till he goes to an election.
This red protest stops as soon as he dissolves parliament.
Looks to me like Abhisit knows he’s a loser and is just hanging on because of his ego, or because he’s told to.
By taking the PM position in the circumstances he did, and (despite his smooth talk) his continued rejection of true reconcilation, fairness & justice, Abhisit has sadly proven he’s not the man we all hoped he could be.
There are? Where are they? I mean, aside from people serving in the current government and disgruntled devoted PAD supporters. While out and about today and in recent days, amidst traffic generally less harmed by the UDD than anyone anticipated, I’ve mainly observed people of all political stripes going about their ordinary business in an un-ruffled manner. Now that the numbers have dwindled and the bloodletting’s ended, passions on both sides seem to have cooled so that only the hardcore on both sides could be described as “very very upset.” But my perception, of course, reflects only the neighborhoods I’ve passed through.
(BD: I’m at a loss in what neighborhood you live in, but you have to talk to the people. Bangkok folks have certainly learned to control themselves.)
Hobby, you’ve been overly calling Abhisit to call an election for a while. But, once the red stops, the yellow returns.
What the reds are doing is actually delaying the prospect of a new election. Unlike you, I think he would like to call an election and couldn’t. If there had been no protest from the red, by June, he would have dissolved the Parliament already. It may be a pure speculation, but seriously he wouldn’t like to hang on to finish his term.
Abhisit just can’t call a snap election now because of a protest. First, it’s the precedence he would set. Second, there are roughly about half of the country not wanting him to call an election. To dissolve now, assuming no changes to the mood of the people, he would be the Thai version of David Lloyd George after the WWI.
Leopold: Despite his talk, I’ve seen nothing from Abhisit to suggest he he is anything but a military royalist puppet who wants to delay as long as he can.
Regarding protests, the yellows have set the standard, and so far it’s clear the reds have not stooped that low (despite their lesser “refinement” & “education” to that of the yellows).
What possible genuine reason could yellows (or anyone for that matter) have to protest about if an election was held allowing the people of Thailand to choose who they want to govern???
BKKDan, you’re slowly becoming a Thai journalist … and that’s not a compliment …
(BD: You don’t respect – I assume – your hosts much.)
Hobby, there would be an election.
Abhisit cannot be there forever, and why would he even think he could be prime minister as long as he likes? He could try, as you suggest he’s doing, but if the economy continue to repeat its performance in Q4/2009, in Q2-Q3/2010, why wouldn’t he call an election? Circumstances dictate politicians’ decisions. It’s not ideology nor personal preference.
And, nowadays who needs “genuine reason” in order to protest anyway?
Red shirts protest because, if they had not taken any action, the worst case scenario for them would be to wait for the general election that would practically be in their bag next year? Why is it so urgent that it has to be NOW and NOW ONLY?
I saw a demonstration today of the people in Bangkok who are seriously upset with the current situation here in Charoen Krung.
It seems there is a new color being added into the mix. GREEN for the anti-protest protestors.
I’m not sure if it was just a local movement or if there are other green shirt groups forming around Bangkok.
Why now?
If you had your votes extinguished in the manner the reds have been (at least twice in recent years), would you sit back calmly?
I think the better question would be:
“Why have they silently acquiesced for so long?”
(And I expect the answer would take a book on Thai history.)
@bkkdan Thai journalist aren’t my hosts fortunately! I keep my respect for the Thai people and not The Nation and its likes.
Since a week or so, it feels like you’re working hard on keeping your site from getting banned by the MICT … well i guess you need those few AdSense baht …
(BD: I wish I would/could do it for the AdSense baht, but I wouldn’t, it’s a question of experience …)
In other words, they are trying not to descend to the level of the reds. But if this moronic mob still carries on like this, it will be justifiable for the city dwellers to act according to their rights.
(BD: Exactly. One would assume though that Bangkokians keep their cool.)
Maybe because a certain person who just lost a billion dollars told them to?
I always read about Bangkok people getting angry about the reds …
So the Bangkok Post is wrong (again)?
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/35123/how-all-this-could-end-in-the-eyes-of-the-villagers
Funny …
Why now indeed. It has been a quiet year since their last Songkran rebellion, what’s the urgency?
The election isn’t in their bag, their only hope is that they’ll get another chance at forming a coalition after getting more seats than Democrats.
If, however, Newin or Banharn decide to stay put, PTP can kiss the elections good bye. Politically PTP is isolated and powerless and the only reason they might get small parties attention is if they promise to completely close eyes to corruption and let them have a free run at people’s money as they are being squeezed by Democrats at the moment.
And that’s where the crux of the matter is hiding – can Abhisit let them to the trough to stay faithful without provoking a huge society backlash.
An election?
They tried that a couple times … the wrong guy keeps winning.
The army/ammart are losing their grip … finally.
I live in the Sukhumvit corridor and also spend time in Bangna where my kids go to school. I do talk with people (admittedly with my mediocre Thai skills). The people I’ve spoken with who disagree with the UDD (mainly teachers at my kids’ school and business colleagues of my spouse, and some neighbors and my condo’s manager) seem annoyed by them but mainly seem reassured by the overall lack of violence and the generally decent traffic flow, and the PM’s steady response to the UDD’s protests helps them feel confident that the government will weather this challenging period. The UDD supporters I encounter (mainly street vendors, foot massage ladies, restaurant staff, security guards, my maid and my spouse’s driver, domestic employees of my neighbors, motorcycle and car taxi drivers, etc.) seem frustrated by the lack of immediate result but pleased that they can wear red in public now without fear of recrimination, and they seem proud of what their compatriots are doing.
I’m curious about this new green movement. Pretty soon, we’ll all have to walk around wearing nothing, because no color will be neutral anymore! LOL
Don’t discount upcoming army reshuffles in the reason for the timing (and also why Abhisit is delaying).
The reds have not petered out, the peaceful strategy you deride was successful in getting soldiers to move out all over town, and today the PM agreed to direct talks. Amazing accomplishments for a group with little support and on the verge of collapse. These events are no surprise to anyone not relying on the Post, The Nation or Manager for their news.
Amazing? Peaceful strategy? I see no peaceful strategy and for some this is the dictatorship of a minority in action. But then again, the “success” you claim is based on the patience of Bangkok’s majority. Abhisit even told them at the opening of the peace talks they can go on demonstrating.
The campaign is not peaceful just because there’s happy music on the stage and no riots took yet place. The daily confrontations with ordinary citizens are not peaceful, the threatened storming of the 11th Infantry Regiment is not peaceful, etc., so there goes your argument.
As for the prime minister’s agreement to peace talks, well they’re accusing him already of delaying tactics and were quoted as saying that there won’t be a day 3 of talks. Either dissolution of the house is confirmed today or else.
Peaceful. Successful. If so, there was popular support and they could have brought a million to Bangkok. And what was that other tweet about Thailand been given good reasons to remain an ammart society?
Dearly hope everyone’s satisfied at the end of the day. Oh, and all the minor grenade attacks you blame on some unrelated military elements? Peaceful? Offering the prime minister that parties can campaign freely in red provinces?
My dear Qualtrough, it ain’t a peaceful campaign so far. But hey, the yellow maniacs were even more disturbing.
Hardly anyone disagrees with the aims of the reds, there’s a disagreement about the means taken.
BangkokDan
I’d love to believe Abhisit and his backers were genuine, but I just cannot drink their Kool-Aid – cannot see their “concession to talk” as anything more than trasformismo (change without change).
The people of Thailand are more informed now than ever – yesterday’s live TV talks were better than most leaders debates I’ve seen leading up to elections in Western democracies.
Come on Abhisit, do the right thing for once – stop your delaying tactics, just dissolve the house, let the people decide who they want to govern the country, and who they want to be in control of its political reform process.
If you don’t do it, the only conclusion I can reach are that you are afraid of elections, afraid of democracy, afraid of the people, and afraid of your military/elite backers (or you are not the upstanding “Democrat” you make youself out to be, and are only in it for your ego, and the vested interests of your backers).
Chuan Leekpai, a former PM and Abhisit’s mentor, dissolved parliament three times while in power some years ago. This proved he was not afraid to face the voters. Chuan was more democratic-minded than Abhisit because he had no one behind him to tell him what to do (unlike Abhisit who is only the military’s nominee/puppet).
Parliamentary dissolution followed by fresh elections will see Puea Thai in power and Abhisit’s military backers running for cover to save their necks after pocketing too much money from GT200 and airship scams.
Deep down their conscience, these officers are worried as people throughout the country know already why they refused to crack down on the yellow shirts during Samak and Somchai administrations whereas now they take hardline stand against the reds.
(BD: Would Chuan have given in to street/mob pressure? Corruption cases so far are nothing out of the ordinary. Abhisit at least managed to reign in that health scam, remember? Sure no perfect world, much to improve, but this constant whitewashing of the Thaksin era … I’m truly amazed by the naivety of some of the comments.)
The thing that continues to amaze me too, is the “heard” mentality of so many English-language bloggers and commentators in/on Thailand.
I guess it’s much easier, just to keep saying, Abhisit is only a puppet of the military and ammart. When you say that, there’s no need to back up such generalisations.
There’s no need to even contemplate that he might be quite smart and working within a system, in order to change it.
Further, it is easy to rely on those truly horrendous images of the military, in crisis of old, to paint a very scary picture of what might happen.
You could also say the same of the establishment now popularly called the “ammart.” Images of men (no women in this – they’re at the hairdresser or out to lunch) behind the scenes, colluding about how to keep Somchai and Nong under their on going feudal control, are easy to conjure up. Hollywood is full of this sort of thing – it puts bums on seats. It’s also being used quite effectively by the UDD in their publications. It’s easy to agree people are “oppressed.” We’re all oppressed on a daily basis, aren’t we? So that’s an easy sell.
But what if the militray and the “ammart,” have actually changed with the times?
What if they have realized that how things were, is not how things are today?
What if Abhisit and some of those around him are quietly working from within, to change things.
And even more outrageous, what if some members of the military and the “ammart,” are also doing their bit, to move Thailand’s institutions into a more modern era – perhaps, as much for their own, personal survival, as for the country’s future.
But such a thought is outrageous isn’t it and I should take the Health Ministry’s recent advice and go and see a doctor?
On the other side, to me Dr. Weng and his history lesson last night, was worthy of an ajarn, at one of Thailand’s better universities – albeit without the Power Point presentation to keep us all awake – showed how little some of the UDD leaders have changed, or have the capability to change.
Still this is hopefully a time of “reconcilliation” and compromise – “Thai style.”
But maybe even what one might call “Thai style” has also changed?
I’m not saying, I’m just saying …
There’s naivety and there’s NAIVETY Dan.
Believing Abhisit is genuine in these “reconciliation talks” is the ultimate in naivety IMO (as is believing he has any legitimacy with anywhere near the majority of the Thai population – even Abhisit knows it, and that’s why he will do whatever he can to delay & avoid elections – if he & his backers thought they could win an election they would jump at it, never mind the constitution & reform – I know you KNOW that Dan).
(BD: Who tells you he wants to avoid elections?! But there’s a difference to giving in to a mob.)
Hobby, prey tell, where is the proof that as of now – lunchtime, Monday, that Abhisit in not sincere in wanting reconciliation?
I would also ask, what happened during the toilet break last night and when the sms tone went off at the start of the last session?
Was there a call from Dubai, which changed the tone of the rest of the meeting?
Was there a call from Dubai before the dialog on stage at Phan Fa turned back to its usual “attack dog” mode?
Is it naive to think these things?
GeGee: Is that a dog whistle I hear?
Abhisits track record on reconciliation (talk vs. action) is clear for all to see – but if you think it’s so good, perhaps you could join me is asking him to test it at an election ASAP – for the sake of the country.
(BTW, if he wins I’d happily accept that he’s the man the country wants, and will retire gracefully.)
Hobby: Is that a dog whistle I hear?
“Here boy” …
If there were some calls from Dubai, I’m sure they sounded more like an angry camel than a dog whistle … Hiss!!!, sppss!!!!, @#$#@%&!! Halas, and no Humdilala!!! 555
Seriously Hobby, I didn’t say his track record was good or otherwise. But, I do think the blog chatterers and much of the international media, have this stereotypical vision in mind and make all their assumptions based on this idea, as to what is going on – without having much more of a clue than you, me, Dan, or the nam taho seller who comes to our house in the mornings.
It seems everyone sees what they want to see, right now.
That is why, as much as they are being knocked by some of those I am critcizing, and the Senate speaker, these televised debates are a good thing.
If there was a lot less “behind the scenes” deals going on, and people in Thailand could talk about a lot more things (nb. “dog whistle”)perhaps people would one day realize this is a much better way to do things …
For that I guess I’m a dreamer and my little mate antipadshist will be laughing his head off, at my “naivety”???? 555
GeGee said:
If they are really doing that, why don’t they just say so? Why do they need to modernize “quietly”? What is there to lose if they say they’re modernizing? Isn’t “change” what everybody wants?
Also, I’m sure we can all remember that Abhisit joined the calls for the PPP govt to dissolve the parliament in 2008, chiefly because the PAD were wreaking havoc.
This is what he said during a parliament session in 2008, when he was still leader of the opposition. The clip is in Thai but I’ll provide my own translation of the most important bits.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SunS-wZs-mo
Say what you like about the reds, but please remember what kind of politician Abhisit really is.
I can’t answer that tum|bler.
I suggest you ask them.
But I offer an possible scenario that those who are making the changes don’t want to frighten the horses.
Is that the right way – I don’t know.
BD says:
What a statement! I suppose aims means new elections, as I know of no other aims or policies, although getting the big guns, royalists, “ammart” out of power is a dual aim. But if the alternative is the likes of Chalerm and Thaksin in power I am sure a lot of people would prefer the royalists and ammart.
(BD: Aims? Was more thinking of a “legitimate” govt finally accepted by the losing party and (hints of) transparency and accountability back in office, but certainly agree with you that we’re actually doing quite fine with Abhisit. But that’s not politically correct to say these days.)
Actually I am also surprised to find there are many people here, unconsciously but willingly, who become a mouthpiece of the military, who staged the illegal coup in 2006. These people pretend to be smart by posting long discourses to show off their knowledge. OK go ahead and keep on talking. Everyone is entitled to his/her own opinions.
GeGee:
Since when, the last coup? Since the cyber war against anything that smacks of lèse majesté? Since Abhisit doubled the military budget?
And the evidence of this change is what? Or they’ve changed in a way that no one can actually detect? Wonderful. And the benefit to the country, or to anyone’s life, of this undetectable nano-change is going to be?
We’re probably not worse off today than under Thaksin’s authoritarian days when a unique kind of fear reigned, when freedom of expression was a distant thing, when others made their monopolist profits and checks and balances were systematically disassembled.
What we’re facing today is a kind of tradeoff. But look, Chalerm’s the probably most trustful potential PT premier out there. Chalerm for god’s sake!
This has been mentioned before, but speculation is with Thaksin-loyalists back in power they’ll defend the institution even more harshly, they wanna be seen as protectors of the crown.
Again, the situation we have today is not too bad, and I’m not ignoring all the downsides.
BangkokDan
Patience dear Mithran, patience.
As for your other “call outs,” Dan has answered quite well.
And what of all those who felt they were doing fine under Thaksin before the first coup, or those under Samak & Somchai before the second & third coups – does their opinion (or vote) matter at all Dan???
(BD: Certainly does Hobby, I’m obviously not speaking for the majority. For politically engaged people under Thaksin it was not a good time. For farmers? I can’t speak for them, but my mother-in-law with her fruit orchard, she just adores him. I’m not talking of turning Thailand into a Singapore. People just seem to forget the past to easily. Or they weren’t here under Thaksin.)
I’m no great fan of Thaksin, and I used to rank Abhisit much higher than him, but an individual vote shouldn’t matter on its own – under a democracy it’s the collective majority that needs be trusted – when people start thinking their vote is woth more than anyone elses then you are certain to have trouble (Thailand is a case in point).
Sadly it seems it’s only the reds and their sympathizers who are prepared to accept the one man one vote democratic principle.
(BD: Nobody is against a vote, you’re twisting again the facts. Just not under mob pressure. Reds look like they’re afraid to lose out too much.)
@BD:
I’m not sure who’s actually distorting the facts. So mob pressure is bad, but allowing a judicial-coup government to continue to run the country is OK?
(BD: Not at all, again, it’s a tradeoff. A choice between two evils. This blog condemned the various recent coups clearly, but the country doesn’t move forward with reds mimicking yellows. Mob-induced elections? The loser – whoever – will cry foul again. Let’s start by adhering to some basic principles. Today’s “victims” abused the system not less. Somewhere they should draw a line. Talks are a good start. Whereas many non-reds think: they pay and they win and that is also not democracy. It can’t be that easy, can it.)
Shuttered Island – I recommend anyone reading recent posts on this blog (I have taken an enlightened leave of absence) to read this same blog a year ago.
It looks like Dan Bangkok has unwittingly turned into Teddy Daniels, while under the watchful eye of Ben Kingsley, Dan Bangkok seems to have forgotten again who he is or how he got here or what his cause is, but it certainly looks like he’s heading for the lighthouse again. His lights must be out.
Dan, did you get paid by the military? I hope they pay you well.
(BD: No need yet! Maybe I should stop talking to neighbors and common people.)