Showdown Live: Doom Looms, Part II

Another day, another crisis in the kingdom of Thailand. The promised easy play of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej didn’t play out as planned so far. Thousands of police tried to storm PAD-occupied Government House in the wee hours at 3.10 am Bangkok time – but were pushed back by the PAD’s self-defense forces.

Despite the amazingly agile volunteer guards, you don’t want to know how Government House looks this morning. Protest leader Chamlong Srimuang, wanted meanwhile by arrest warrant, demanded access to toilets, or else … Just to mention other bare human needs such as food … Yesterday’s battle cry was “rao mai nueai” – we’re not tired. Today’s: We’re hungry. Until the food sellers arrived.

The strategy of the state was to starve out the protesters. The main topics of the speakers – in the early morning hours – were food and water. Party time with daily diatribe shows over? Let’s not underestimate the determination of the PAD. The movement has become a sheer religious phenomenon for many. Here we go with today’s live-blogging:

8 am: Well, still no gloom doom. Just “Samak lame duck” accusations. The government’s tactic? Attrition. To be continued.

Early wee hours: The police approach remains softly-softly. Police trucks and ambulances remain ready nearby. As if the government enjoys to see PAD’s public backing fall lower and lower. Or does it?

Around midnight: You can’t leave: PAD guards prevent their own people from leaving, reports The Nation. The logic behind it? If you leave, we’ll lose, as protest leader Chamlong had said.

Unlikely peacekeeper Samak: Meanwhile, waiting for the big event, enjoy the Asia Sentinel‘s “Thailand’s Premier Becomes an Unlikely Peacekeeper.” Quoting – what we said yesterday: “In the complex game of Thai politics, the opposition’s intransigent tactics may give Samak a chance to look good.” Going on with Samak having the “unlikely potential to emerge as a positive force for once, rather than as a villain – if he continues to play his cards right.”

9.10 pm: Power supply at Government House cut since 7.45 pm, but the activities and festivities on the stage continue. ASTV’s now expecting the police raid at around 10 pm, but why should the police start the operation when everybody’s expecting it. If, it will be again in the middle of the night. And see, by now they’re expecting the raid between 3 – 5 am.

7.20 pm: Sondhi again on the stage – really the last time? Warns his “brothers and sisters” that they could soon get hurt and he get shot. Police will try to create chaos and provoke, Sondhi says. Wait a second, who’s provoking whom?! Has he just completely lost his mind? Ah, forgot, martyrs … Dozens of police busses to remove protesters are ready outside Government House, ASTV reports.

7.10 pm: ASTV expects police raid around 9 pm. The government announces that protesters would be removed from Government House compound before sunset. Official explanation: Government House would have to use the place for the ceremony of From Mother Day to Father Day on Saturday, presided by the crown prince.

Arrest warrant details & charges: Bangkok Pundit has it all here. New Mandala explores “A PAD strategy?” Excellent scholarly read.

6.50 pm: Festive, cheerful atmosphere at Government House with moving live music. Impressive. After all these days and months out on the street still that energetic and enthusiastic. Have the feeling there could be some drastic police action in the middle of the night. Samak’s other option: Start his “starving out” campaign by locking down the place, quietly, but rigidly.

Reinforcements: Police have been reinforced at the Government after a Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for nine leaders of People’s Alliance for Democracy, reports The Nation. The PAD leaders vowed that they will not flee but will sit and wait for police to arrest them. Chamlong is reliving the roles he played in the 1992 May crisis when he was arrested as he was surrounded by protesters.

6.30 pm: Another speaker announces “another final strategy” to oust the Samak government, to be announced tomorrow. Does that imply further violent civil disobedience?!

6.10 pm: Moving speech by another PAD leader. Our descendants, he says, don’t have to be tired anymore, they don’t have to fight anymore for clean, transparent politics and honest leaders. PAD, he says, has revolutionized Thai politics in a non-violent protest. Today, he says, is a more important day than October 14th. Morality and ethics and justice stand above the law, calling the current government an illegal one that will be dissolved. We tell the world, he says, that taking control of the Government House is to improve democracy in Thailand. We sent letters to ambassadors of the world explaining our cause. But don’t fear. The five leaders are not afraid. Bravery is moving us forward. The government fears to arrest us. And we do not allow to be led by emotions. We will win, even if your five core leaders will not be here any longer.

5.50 pm: Sondhi takes stage for one final time before he and the other protest leaders are arrested. Carried live by ASTV, Sondhi declares the birth of people’s politics. But ultimately there is nothing, he says. That is what Thais call dhamma. And then the key sentence: Our arrest will depend on you all, Sondhi says. Whether you want that. A battle call?

5 pm: The most critical hours lie ahead. Police urge PAD key leaders to turn themselves in. Chart Thai Leader Banharn Silpa-Archa warns the PAD to be weary of the possibility of an interference from a third party, which may very well lead to an outbreak of violence. Me knows, the old warning, but if not now, when would there be a better time for that “third party.” Somehow you have to admire those PAD leaders – via TOC: “Amid the heavy rain, key PAD leaders took the stage and urged PAD supporters to fight on and hold their ground inside Government House. The key leaders then stepped down from the stage and are now sitting among the protesters who remain undaunted despite the pouring rain and the impending arrest warrants for the key PAD personnel.” Difficult times ahead, dramatic moments, but that’s the price they’re obviously willing to pay for the sake of their struggle and ideals. What if?

Author Christopher G. Moore speaks: Citing from Bangkok Crime Scene: The Politics of the Mob on the PAD’s protests: “There are small crimes, big crimes, and then there are political clashes between forces, each with their own vision of how society ought to function. Sometimes they mix and match, with the robbers and thugs blending in with the true believers. For a novelist or a journalist, the unfolding drama of mobs challenging the government are unsettling, but yield much in terms of the human condition when pushed to a critical limit. However unlike a good crime fiction novel, we can’t quite yet turn the page to see who comes out on top. May be it will be a draw. Or may be this is just the start of something that will get out of hand.”

Treason charges: That’s heavy. Treason charges laid against PAD leaders according to TOC. Gives the state lots of judicial leverage. Big questions looming: Will the PAD supporters stand up for their leaders? Waiting for a clear list of the charges. Is the government going over the top? Adds Meaw & More: “Matichon quoting Chamlong said he had assigned power of attroney to other people to manage over 6.6 million baht donation in case of arrest. The leaders said they will not turn themselves in, but the police have to come and arrest them. (Sound like the “human shield” used in 1992?)”

4 pm: Thunder storm approaching. If the PAD just wouldn’t have developed into a nuisance, as the Bangkok Post puts it: “Many of the PAD’s accusations against the government are perfectly valid. Among them are the self-serving attempt to rewrite the Constitution, the usual outrageous practice of cronyism, interference in the Bank of Thailand in a move clearly driven by a hidden agenda, failure to address economic problems and suspicions of corruption in mega projects. Although the PAD has always preached non-violence in dealing with the government, the use of aggression through the disruption of road traffic and government operations is undemocratic and illegal, and is causing unnecessary hardship to the public. While the PAD is determined to go for broke, it must be said the police have shown admirable restraint in their handling of the protesters. The government, too, has been patient.” Again, ironically, the Samak government as the profiteer of the PAD’s nuisance campaign.

3.30 pm: ASTV reports PAD protesters have not seized Government House, but that they “camp out” at Government House – denying a CNN report by insisting on a purely semantic persnicketiness. Or how about a “picnic” at Government House, as Mangager puts it. If you know the beautifully manicured gardens around Government House, you will not be surprised what impact some “camping out” will have. Nevertheless, Samaks strategy to starve out the protester clearly fails. Manager: “The relaxing atmosphere was also supported by food stalls selling various stuff from iced tea to omelettes.” Even chaos is worth a party in Thailand.

3 pm: Arrest warrants out to apprehend nine core PAD leaders, reports The Nation: “The five PAD leaders earlier said police would have to wade through the crowds in order to apprehend them.”

Succession issues: That is, succession to the PAD leadership. PAD leaders are bracing for their arrest and name a list of successors. Via The Nation.

Exclusive Sondhi interview: PAD protest leader Sondhi explains his Final Solution. Among the answers: “The army has failed to take control of the situation, and overthrow the forces of evil that threaten the monarchy.” Or: People “will support us when they see the rise of the new Age of Thailand. Imagine the glorious day when our military storms across the Cambodian border with “lightning” speed to reclaim Preah Vihear and all the lands of our forefathers. I truly believe this Age can last a thousand years.” And his goal? “The establishment of a National Social Thai State, with the King as head, or “The Leader.” A strong army that serves only The Leader, and a population that takes pride in its Thai purity.” Via, well, Not The Nation.

Popular support? Doesn’t seem much popular support left for the PAD. They got carried away by pitiful issues such as Preah Vihear and ran nonstop through town demanding this and condemning that – and are staging a revolution that shall bring Thailand which leadership?! Heaven forbid. Any PAD success would divide the kingdom even more deeper. No disrespect, but the PAD’s current actions and false fronts work for the benefit of Samak. Oh, and the public’s disapproval is official.

12 pm: Nine key PAD leaders and members shall expect arrest warrants, TOC reports. Among them: Sondhi Limthongkul, Pipob Thongchai, Somsak Kosaisuk, Somkiart Pongpaiboon and Chamlong Srimuang. To my knowledge Sondhi actually never spent a single minute behind jail bars, despite a life full of law suits and legal actions. Chamlong on the contrary … Don’t expect bail to be granted. The BBC provides a general updater, as do CNN and Bloomberg. Quoting from Bloomberg’s: “If Samak doesn’t react hastily and holds his ground, the protesters may become frustrated,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute for Strategic and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

Softly-softly approach: Bangkok Pundit on the government’s “softly-softly approach.” Noting that “even The Nation struggles to blame Samak.”

10.50 am: TOC reports more than 500 police surround PAD protesters inside Government House, while the authorities hand the whole drama over to the courts to order PAD to vacate Government House. Arrest warrants for the PAD leaders are still pending. The Criminal Court though is expected to rule before noon whether to give the green light to apprehend about seven to eight PAD leaders.

Remarkable restraint: It remains unclear how well the “suffocation strategy” of the government works. According to an earlier report “commando police pulled out of the Government House compound, backing off from confrontation with protesters there … Protesters at the Makkhawan Rangsan bridge started moving to join the protesters inside Government House after the police forces left.” Providing fresh supplies of water and food? Meanwhile, New Mandala commends the Samak government’s “remarkable restraint” saying:

“Imagine what would happen if this had occurred in Australia. Imagine if a group seeking to overthrow the Australian government had seized the offices of the ABC (the national broadcaster) in Canberra, occupied key government offices and blocked the road to Sydney. They wouldn’t last more than a few hours. The police response would be rapid, firm and, if necessary, forceful.”

10 am: Standoff at Government House, reports The Nation. The PAD’s political hara-kiri drags on. I’d be surprised to see the government taking any proactive stance. The security forces are ordered to sit it out. We may witness the largest unintentional hunger strike in history.

8 am: Some 8,000 protesters remain at Government House, surrounded by hundreds of riot police. The atmosphere seems relaxed – apart from the rising feeling of hunger and thirst. And you know that the Thai brain stops working the minute a hunger feeling is not allayed. AFP reports: “At least 100 officers had managed to enter the compound, but remained separate from the protesters and appeared relaxed.”

Defecation warfare: Samak won’t recognize his office anymore – if he ever returns? By The Nation. Meanwhile, The Shark has the “PAD thugs on video.”

3.10 am: Crunch time. You were maybe peacefully sleeping, the PAD protesters though were surrounded by thousands of police, as TOC and The Nation report. And here’s the Bangkok Post on the “pre-dawn clash.” Police didn’t act determined enough, didn’t apply a Blitz-strategy, fearing that each drop of blood may result in charges of massacre. Now the drama may drag on.