It’s true that there are other indicators to look at if you are an overseas investor considering Thailand. I suppose inflation is the one worrying most people these days. But, even in the world of derivatives, ETFs and margin trading, it’s necessary to have some real growth as a base or engine to the investment process. And to have growth implies that there must be real investment coming from somewhere. If it’s not coming from inside Thailand (and the stimulus measures suggest a considerable impact) then Thailand becomes part of a beauty pageant of SEA economies. Other markets are going up fast too so why choose Thailand?

I guess you have to look at Thailand’s core competences when you assess these things. I believe that Thailand’s most attractive feature to a prospective investor (amoral creatures mostly), is its willingness to keep wages and living standards for workers as low as possible. The degree to which labour has been exploited in Thailand is quite extraordinary but it certainly pays off for the Thailand’s profitability.

Marketing its commodities at lower prices is only possible if labor costs are kept down. The large scale industrial enterprises from places like Japan and Korea are attracted by low labor costs. Thailand is particularly attractive as, believe it or not, there is little difference between the pay of a Thai industrial worker and one in China! The construction industry relies heavily on migrant labor and the conditions those people have to deal with must be familiar to everyone who lives here. I could go on and describe conditions in Thailand’s enormous sex industry but as this is the core competence of Thailand’s current commerce minister I should think that policies that connive at the merciless exploitation of workers are considered by the government to be simple common sense.

Thailand’s competitiveness is based on a merciless system of exploitation that creates both enormous wealth for those with capital and enormous pain and suffering for those without it. Naturally, if investors understand Thailand’s cost advantage is based on the denial of respect to those without capital then they will appreciate that the repression of the current protest will strengthen this position for at least another decade … And yes, the stockmarket will probably rise on that news.

Thailand is a rich country with a visibly poor general population. It squandered the decades of competition free enterprise as the states around it were paralyzed by internal politics. After taking a leading role in the Asian financial crisis made it dependent on foreign investment capital there was some room for progressive change in the name of improving the general economic situation. But that was then and this is now and the people who managed and benefited from the exploitation economy of the last two decades of the 20th century seem to want to go back to the old ways again. In recent years conditions for workers showed signs of improving but, if the people who run enterprise Thailand want to continue to follow the example of the past then the “prai” must be pushed down.

Without this support the threat of the protests having any political impact was perceived as low.

They had no idea how much disruptive power a small but armed and determined group of nobodies can have.

There was a power vacuum for a few days but now the government and army moves have restored investors confidence, SET was up yesterday, wasn’t it?

If, however, Ratchaprasong is not cleared by next Monday and there’s no resolution in sight, the SET will plunge, assuming the govt can keep momentum going and maintain confidence levels today and tomorrow.

Not that overseas investors opinions mean much in local politics, just one of the indicators.

Before the last few weeks I would have said that stock market and the strength of the baht reflect the general view that certain markets in Asia, because of their exposure to China, are good value. Even assuming that is the case, normally the possibility of political instability would deter all but the hardened investors. So either the investors are betting on a peaceful resolution or they are assuming that a violent resolution would resolve the situation in a way that would promote economic growth. I’ve just come back from Singapore where I had an interesting chat with someone who works for Standard Chartered. They pointed out that most of the money in the market is Asia based. Western sources for capital, while still around, are too puny to be taken terribly seriously any more. And if you can accept the existence of an Asian investment psyche then you might concede that an authoritarian regime with decent infrastructure and an willingness to repress dissent and ignore civil rights is an attractive location so long as the “right” people are in charge … A pseudo democracy backed by unaccountable figures and with the military in attendance would serve their purposes very nicely. If this view is correct then, should there be a violent confrontation, shortly thereafter observers will observe a steep rise in the Thai stockmarket … Money, particularly money in Asia, rarely has a conscience. And it seems from the movements in the markets in recent weeks that Thailand attracts investment from people without consciences too.

In Singapore last night I thought about this some more and it seems to me that the links between economic success and political alignment seem to cry out for discussion although I rarely see them mentioned except as part of conspiracy theories. There is a political realignment being worked out in Thailand now. From an early dependence on Japanese capital and a few European style colonial enterprises, Thailand turned to the United States which was playing cold war dominoes at the time. Now it seems the superpower whose attention needs to be solicited in China. And I don’t think the Chinese are reluctant to point out that “too much” democracy is a particularly unpleasant issue for prospective partners of the People’s Republic. The recent rapprochement with Taiwan is an excellent example of how they perceive successful democratic and open societies as a threat. Although the nature of the dialogue is disguised in various ways it seems that the PRC are more comfortable dealing with their former deadly enemies the KMT (richest political party in the world btw). Some commentators have suggested that the sight of a sustained and functioning democracy in this estranged province of China is deeply destabilizing. It seems that the moves to jail the former president and members of his family, unprecedented moves in a long history of openly sanctioned and largely KMT based political corruption in Taiwan, are teaching a clear lesson about the limits of ambition within that society’s democratic politics.

How much of the money now coming into Thailand is “truly” Chinese we will probably never know as the origins of capital flows are easily concealed. What we can see though is a very public connection developing between Thailand and China of a more than cordial nature. It’s a connection that is very much focused on the patronage system which is strongly supported by one part of the community in particular.

Is it too much of a stretch to see the Democrat Party/yellow shirt discourse which is seen as articulating the views and hopes of the Thai=Chinese business elite as part of this move towards China? And is this perhaps why the red shirts are receiving from the media outlets servicing Thailand’s older economic partners a more sympathetic hearing than one might have previously expected?

What I am saying seems very tenuous to me but I’d be interested to know what people think … There’s one other obvious point to make if you accept that there is anything in what I have been saying. If Thailand is now modeling itself to be more attractive to a prospective future Chinese partner what consequences will this have for the way it views the farang?

Now even the reddest hardcore elements may have a feeling that all these aggressions are not about to bring democracy, but hey, they’ve gone too far already.

Maybe mix some harsh diarrhea in their drinking water. Don’t see any other realistic way out. (Oh do we even have to say sorry for satire in these days?)

The wilderness has reached downtown. Not that I don’t enjoy the wild, but ignoring centuries of human, social and political development is a sad thing.

Even sadder is that some believed in a “peaceful” protest. It was even clearer than a clear noodle soup from the very beginning that there’s only one way to go – and the government supported it with free bus rides.

BangkokDan

And what’s this “lonely” thing? Even if I was, you got the wrong idea how I prefer to be consoled.

It’s available on True now, and first thing I noticed is that ThaiCrisis firmly believes in unimaginable bloodshed during Songkran protests last year and predicts the same massacre this time around.

Come to think of it – that wouldn’t be a bad ending. Of course April 10th alone surpassed last year already.

True would indeed translate into Pravda, according to Google. The brand name first appeared when Orange was leaving Thai market and CP part of the company needed a new identity. It was True Orange, then True Move, True HiSpeed, True Visions etc. True HiSpeed was a real oxymoron then.

Jaded, you’ve got a lot of good ideas and you express them eloquently and with passion. Please do share with us your blog address if you have one. If you don’t, perhaps it’s time you started one?

(BD: What I’ve been telling Jaded all along.)

If I were to translate True into Russian would I get something like “Pravda”?