The Vongthip Letter Apr 09

Abhisit’s first 100 Days: As anticipated, PM Abhisit has been maturing (and aging!) fast before our eyes. It has indeed been a Herculean task, trying to raise Thailand’s international image, steer the country through the world’s Great Recession while endeavoring to satisfy his demanding coalition parties as well as his own hard-to-please supporters.

In the mean time, Thaksin & Co. have stepped up their do-or-die attacks to force out his government, from within and outside the parliament as well as from within and outside the country. During 3/09, PM Abhisit continued to score high with the urban and rural folks, sailing through the earlier-than-normal no-confidence debate on 9-10/3/09 (246 vs 139 votes).

He successfully launched most of the promised THB 116 billion short term economic stimulus programs to trigger consumer’s confidence and spending. In addition, there was a series of measures taken to clear some of the long-pending economic and social issues that have remained unattended by his two predecessors. The THB 1.56 trillion medium term infrastructure programs were also approved by the cabinet and tabled in the parliament, for implementation during the second half of ‘09.

By Vongthip Chumpani*

PM Abhisit has been even more successful in the high-profiled international arena. In spite of the threats of violence from the Red Shirts, the Asean Summit Meeting went well under his chairmanship and the Asean message was effectively delivered by the Thai PM at the G-20 Meeting in London on 28-29/3/09. An ensuing Asean Plus 3 and Plus 6 Meetings at Pattaya have been scheduled for 10-12/4/09, to be followed by the first Asean Dialog Forum to discuss the economic crisis with key speakers from the World Bank, IMF, Unctad, WTO, ADB and the UN’s Secretary General, in Bangkok.

Political events in the two weeks, however, have put Thailand’s political stability in the international spot light once again. Hopefully, this time around the Abhisit government would be in a better position to communicate and restore the trust and confidence of the international community in his government before too long. As the current chairman of Asean, PM Abhisit has had to maintain his full participation and active leadership role in forging out the New World Order that would benefit not only Asean but also Thailand.

Thaksin’s war

Since 26/3/09, familiar revolutionary songs have been heard nightly before and after Thaksin addressed thousands of cheering Red Shirts who gathered around the Government House. The boisterous Red Shirt army came to listen to their belligerent leader’s “phone-ins” on video links from Dubai/Hong Kong/Nicaragua/Cambodia or even Koh Chang in Thailand. His tales of conspiracy and betrayals were used to justify his bitter attacks on Thailand’s national pillars i.e. the monarchy, military and judiciary.

In the same breath, he also listed out a series of confusing offers, demands and threats, ranging from constitutional amendments, royal pardon for one and all, dissolution of parliament, resignation of PM Abhisit, setting up of a national reconciliation government, resignation of the chairman of the Privy Councilors etc. etc. Finally, he called for a people’s uprising on 8/4/09 to topple, not only the Abhisit Government, but also the establishment and their evil “Bureaucratic Polity” (whatever that meant) so that he could return as the savior of the “real” democracy in Thailand.

Gone too far!

In the first week of 4/09, Thaksin went for broke. He started to name names and made direct false accusations against his “enemies”, thereby created an unprecedented uproar from the public especially among those who had remained politically “passive and neutral” in the struggle between the Yellow and the Red Shirts. The Abhisit government was also taken to task for being too soft and too compromising with the highly aggressive demonstrators and for failing to cope with this fast spreading national security threat.

The beleaguered PM came out to state very clearly that his government would not resort to violence against the demonstrators but would not hesitate to use every legal means to deal firmly with those who broke the law. He promised to spare no efforts to protect that which has always been held sacred for the country. He also appealed to the police, the army and the citizens to keep their cool and not be easily misled or provoked into violent confrontations that would only spell disaster for the country.

Trooping of colors

While the Red Shirts were gathering and attracting larger crowds, the Yellow Shirts have been keeping a low profile. They continued to hold small weekly meeting in Bangkok and their monthly political concert up-country. With some 50 cases filed against them by Thaksin and the police, the PAD’s leaders have been busy attending the court-hearings to fight their cases.

In the mean while, they have become increasingly more resentful of being equated with the Red Shirts by the government, the press and the public. The more the Red Shirts intensified their abusive attacks on the establishment, the more vindicated the PAD were feeling, as they continued to sit on the sideline, leaving the White and the Blue Shirts to fend for the government and the establishment on their own for a change.

Lately, more and more people have come to regret that Thai politics would not have turned so messy and destructive, if they themselves had not been so absorbed with their own interests, beliefs and prejudices. Now that the Thai society has woken up to the new political realities, we all have no choice but to set aside our own ego, learn how to communicate and live peacefully with one another in spite of our differences.

Shooting ourselves in the foot

As the Abhisit government continued to work with the private sector to revive and sustain the economy, fresh political unrest created by Thaksin & Co. has started to take its toll. Once again foreign investors and friends of Thailand, only just recently convinced that Thailand’s worst ever political crisis was over, have started to entertain some doubts about the country’s political stability, especially when they saw the Red Shirts’ aggressive attack on PM Abhisit’s motorcade in Pattaya on 7/4/09.

Some countries have already started to dust off their travel advisory. At least 40 chartered flights of Chinese tourists coming for the Songkran Holiday have been cancelled. Businessmen have come out to express their grave concern about further loss of vital new business opportunities during this critical time. The World Bank and the ADB (who has recently approved a USD 500 million loan for Thailand’s stimulus programs) have both warned that Thailand’s 09 GDP could plunge to as low as minus 4-5% (from minus 2%), if there were to be another political upheaval.

The battered economy

The 2/09 economic figures released were not much worse than expected. Year-on-year, exports fell by 11% to USD 11.6 billion, with imports plunging sharply by 43.5% to USD 7.6 billion. Trade surplus totaled USD 3.9 billion. Current account surplus was USD 4.4 billion. Fiscal budget disbursement grew 38.5% to THB 706 billion. Domestic consumption worsened, contracting 7%.

Private investment also shrunk by 13%. Industrial running capacity was at 55.1%. Business sentiment index has stabilized at just below 50%. Outstanding commercial bank lending declined to THB 8.4 billion while deposit went up 6% to THB 9.3 trillion. Tourist arrivals decreased 23% to 1.1 million due to global recession. Hotel occupancy rate stood at 57%. International Reserves went slightly up to USD 113.3 billion.

The THB ended the month at THB 35.45 and the SET continued firm at 431. The most discouraging (and shameful) figure of them all, however, was PERC’s recently announced their 2009 rating of Thailand as the second most corrupt economy in Asia (7.63 score)!

Let us pray

After 8/4/09, many have come to believe that Thaksin’s days were numbered. In general, people have been impressed by PM Abhisit’s steady performance and quiet leadership in the last three months, during which Thailand has managed to move forward again notwithstanding the prevailing difficult political and economic circumstances.

Most people, in and outside Thailand, have also come to accept PM Abhisit as the best leader Thailand could have at the moment. After three years of political upheavals, the country needed peace, stability and continuity to weather the current world’s economic recession. It would therefore be a useless exercise for PM Abhisit to resign or to call for fresh election during this critical time.

Let’s keep our fingers crossed and pray that the country would soon be in a position to put an end to the Thaksin saga, move on to bridge the great political divide and join hands to solve those critical political, economic and social problems that Thailand now faces. Happy Songkran Holiday!

* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.




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Related posts on absolutelyBangkok.com:

  1. The Vongthip Letter Sep 09
  2. The Vongthip Letter Aug 09
  3. The Vongthip Letter Jun 09
  4. The Vongthip Letter May 09
  5. The Vongthip Letter Dec 09
  6. The Vongthip Letter Feb ‘10
  7. The Vongthip Letter Nov 09

April 5, 2009 | Filed Under Business & Economics, Politics, Property & Investment, The Vongthip Letters 

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