The Vongthip Letter Apr ’10

Abhisit’s red hot summer: March 2010 was indeed a month for a crash course on Thai democracy, not only for the Thai society but also for the international community. Political pundits have been holding their breath for weeks while the Abhisit government tried everything possible to steer the country away from another political breakdown. When the red shirts announced their final D-Day on 12/3/10, PM Abhisit cancelled his trip to Australia & New Zealand that week and went ahead to invoke the Internal Security Act from 11-23/3/10 to prepare for the “red flood” from upcountry into Bangkok.

Since then, some 30,000 soldiers, 10,000 police and 10,000 civilian volunteer forces have been mobilized to provide security at the red shirts rallies as well at scores of prime target spots, as listed out by the red shirts for their mobile visits and for the nocturnal bomb throwers. Soon enough, both local and foreign who-is-who’s came out in full force to voice their concern and plead for non-violence by both the protesters and the government.

Hide and seek game: Throughout the highly volatile situation, PM Abhisit and his cabinet kept their cool and endeavored to continue with their normal work schedules while going out of their way to dodge the red shirts’ highly aggravating mobile expeditions and antagonizing maneuvers e.g. laying siege at the government house, the parliament and the army base where PM Abhisit and his team were lodging and working in a war room to deal with emergency situations as they arose.

By Vongthip Chumpani*

Then there were those ghastly voodoo rituals e.g. drawing and pouring of 3,000 liters of the red shirts “own” (?) blood in front of the parliament, the Democrat Party headquarters and PM Abhisit’s own house! Faced with sabotage and death threats, PM Abhisit was given maximum security protection and had to be spirited in and out to chair the cabinet meetings, attend parliament sessions and other functions and events.

An April déjà vu?

For three weekends in a row Bangkok people either stayed put at home or left the city for the weekend to avoid city-wide traffic jams as tens of thousands boisterous red shirts were bussed in by Puea Thai MPs from the north and the northeast provinces to join their counterparts in Bangkok. Every evening they waited to hear their beloved master phone-ins, thanking them for coming, sweet-talking them to remain at the rally, pleading them to bring him home, urging them on to rise up against the powers-that-be and their political dictatorship and promising them great prosperity upon his return.

His themes for the fight varied from “Down with Amataya” to “Give back Democracy!” to “This is a class war” to “Dissolve parliament now!” The 3 week demonstration was televised live on PTV and got their fair share of attention from local as well as international mass media. During the weekends, more people were recruited to join the joy rides through the streets of Bangkok on hundreds of motorcycles and trucks.

Cat and mouse game

Things became increasingly more unsettling for the government when Thailand had to act as host of the IPU International Parliament Union in Bangkok and the first summit meeting of the Lower Mekong River Commission on in Huahin. With thousands of international delegates and mass media people in town, the Abhisit government could not do much to stop the red shirts from escalating their protest. Mindful of the public sentiments, PM Abhisit took the advice of the National Human Rights Commission and sat down to “negotiate” with three leaders of the red shirts on 28-29/3/10.

The two sessions (5.5 hours) were televised live on all TV channels, got the full attention of the nation and his popularity soared. Any glimmer of hope, however, was dashed when the red shirts unceremoniously rejected PM’s Abhisit’s road map to dissolve parliament in nine months vs their 2 week deadline. They flatly rejected his rationale: that all parties need to first agree on election rules and regulations and that there should be a guarantee of peaceful election campaigns.

When the red shirts walked away from the negotiating table, PM Abhisit flew off for his official visits to Brunei and Bahrain. A chance for the third round of talk evaporated when the red shirts started to escalate their “peaceful” protest to new limits.

Between the devil and the deep blue sea

Throughout the crisis, PM Abhisit reported regularly on the situation to the public on national television. Again and again, he emphasized that the red shirts’ had the right to demonstrate peacefully and that they could do so in accordance with the constitution and within the rule of law. In line with the people’s sentiment, he vowed not to use force to suppress the demonstrators.

He asked Bangkok residents to be patient with the traffic jams and other inconveniences for the sake of peaceful solutions. In the mean time, government security forces appeared to be failing again and again to exercise firmer measures to contain the aggressive crowds. When the red shirts moved to occupy and shut down the Ratchaprasong intersection on 3/4/10, Bangkok citizens lost their cool and started to show their frustration and anger, first at Thaksin and the red shirts and then at the Abhisit government.

As economic losses (from the tourist industry) started to climb, PM Abhisit was taken to task by the conservatives for failing to snip the demonstration in the bud and for failing to deal more firmly to end it. In the mean time, he was being accused of human rights violation by the protesters and warned against violence by the liberals at home and abroad.

High Noon

As the hot season’s temperatures continued to soar (around 40 degree), PM Abhisit’s policy to use international riot control measures and procedures started to falter. More red shirts were leaving the drought-plagued up-country to demonstrate in Bangkok while more Bangkokians left the city for their earlier-than-usual Songkran holiday. On 7/4/10 the red shirts broke the stalemate.

Their hard core contingent stormed into the parliament to hunt for PM Abhisit and DPM Suthep. The MPs had to end their session and flee the violent crowd by climbing down a wall-ladder behind the building. The incident prompted PM Abhisit to call for a special cabinet meeting to declare an emergency decree to deal with the rioting. Political rallies in and around Bangkok were forbidden.

The red shirts’ PTV was shut down and warrants issued for the immediate arrest of 19 red shirt leaders. Buses were sent to take the red shirts back to their home town. In defiance, the red shirts called for another big rally on 9/4/10. It would be a miracle if PM Abhisit could come out of this crisis unscathed. Waiting in the wings for their opportunity were the blue and the yellow shirts who have been sitting on the fence, enjoying the fight between the Democrats and the red shirts.

Amazing performance

Thanks to export, tourism and domestic consumption, the Thai economy continued to expand satisfactorily in 2/10. High farm incomes also drove sales of passenger cars, trucks, motorcycles and imported consumer goods (up 41%). Industrial capacity utilization went up a notch to 67.8%. Exports totaled USD 14.3 billion, down 23.5% yoy and imports USD 13.8 billion, down 80% yoy.

Trade balance, current account balance and balance of payments continued in the black at USD 452 million, USD 1,521 million and USD 119 million respectively. Official foreign reserves inched down slightly to USD 141.8 billion. Consumer price index went slightly down to 3.7% with core inflation at 0.3%. All interest rates remained unchanged and the THB strengthened slightly to THB 32.31 to USD.

In 3/10, notwithstanding the on-going political impasse, the SET went from strength to strength to end the month at 788. The exceptionally strong foreign fund inflows continued unabated and the SET broke the 800 in the first week of 4/10 before plunging on 7/4/10. Contrary to past track records, Thailand’s political risk seemed to have been discounted totally by foreign investors in 3/10!

Enterprising local investors, however, were more cautious, preferring to move in and out of the market to remain net sellers by the end of each trading day. More cautious local investors simply cashed out and went away to wait for better political situation.

Better late than never

Many people in the know seemed to agree that parliament dissolution could not solve Thailand’s current political crisis. For those who have been watching the red shirts’ reality show on PTV (to learn about the gullible upcountry folks and understand the reasons for their frustration and vulnerability), they could not help feeling disturbed by the fact that the rich and the strong members of the society have not been paying real attention to the plights of our weak and poor compatriots.

Bogged down by our deep concern for the country’s economic well-being and political power, we have indeed neglected our social problems. During this crisis, the Thai society has at last woken up to the fact that we all need to pitch in, make extra efforts and sacrifices to save the country from going over the brink, socially, politically and economically. Sad but true, we have all been just as guilty as anyone else for this social and political mess.

* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.


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23 Responses to “The Vongthip Letter Apr ’10”

  1. Jaded says:

    Tonight it’s very interesting to see this dimwitted supporter of authoritarian elitists slowly beginning to register the “plights of our weak and poor compatriots.” Her lack of any degree of self-awareness even now is quite astonishing. “Bogged down by our deep concern for the country’s economic well-being and political power, we have indeed neglected our social problems.” Let me rephrase this for the benefit of those of your readers who are not subscribers to the Nation or Manager view of society.

    Bogged down by our greed, merciless exploitation and complete disregard for basic human rights we have pushed the less fortunate elements of society to a point where now that they have been disenfranchised through coup and court judgement, the only way that their voices can be heard is by stopping us shopping for Louis Vuitton and causing a few Bangkok traffic jams … Because that’s really the last straw for the people who really run Thailand isn’t it?

    I’ll say one thing for Abhisit. He knows that if the “hardliners” move now the world will really see this state is run by people who have a slaveowner’s mentality … When the Pattaya hothead led a score of thuggish characters into parliament for half an hour Abhisit and Co. were able to seize on that action as an escalation that provided sufficient reason to impose emergency rule. But he knows that without further public disorder the fig leaf, behind which the brute force solution favored by some of the elite is hiding, will disappear. If they beat those people down without the benefit of a provocative act sufficient to be construed as casus belli, his political career will disappear too …

    I guess, one way or another, if it’s really necessary an excuse can be fabricated.

    But what then for the reputation of Eton and Oxford? Perhaps he can call Anand and ask for advice on how the PM can wash the blood of a massacre away?

    (BD: So all of a sudden Thaksin’s no more part of the equation?)

  2. Mithran says:

    This is her way of shifting the blame. It’s not the fault of the elite, it’s the fault of *everyone* …

    “During this crisis, the Thai society has at last woken up to the fact that we all need to pitch in, make extra efforts and sacrifices to save the country from going over the brink …”

    And who do you think is going to be making those sacrifices? Hmm … I wonder?

    Here’s a newsflash for Vongthip: “the gullible upcountry folks” are no longer as gullible as they used to be.

  3. Jaded says:

    Dear me, no.

    Thaksin was in my opinion a fully paid up greedy elitist who had a tremendous talent for being all things to all people. I should think that even amongst the reds this is a commonplace observation. One thing is clear. Most of the things Thaksin got up to (cronyism, corruption, press censorship, repression, organizing anti-drug pogroms that facilitate police murderers, etc etc) were in the not too recent past (and are now in many instances) simply the standard practice here in Thailand. The reason that very little local commentary is focused on anything but the court case’s is that if the public were encouraged to look closely at Thaksin’s evil this would have considerable implications for other once and future powerful figures. So we have this ridiculous facade that his business dealings are significant. In the disgustingly corrupt world of Thai politics Thaksin’s dealings are utterly un-extraordinary and everyone knows it. Hell, nearly all of his business partners are still there happily planted in rich soil with his help … We all know why the move against Thaksin was so popular and it isn’t because he was corrupt … But nobody speaks about this …

    But, at least for the moment we can speak about the new found power of the military to run the country, massively increase its budget (and the potential for kickbacks of course), play at provoking war with Cambodia and abuse, intimidate and murder innocent people. If the democrats had a shred of conscience for their own constituents they would recognise that accepting power through military patronage has the potential to do more damage to Thailand than any single event since the Sarit coup. We need those elections for Thailand’s future so long as the military are in a position to veto even a slight rolling back of their current power.

    Even if you regard the Democrats as a safer option you have to wonder every now and again. Have we all forgotten the sight of Abhisit on CNN to rationalize the military towing people out to see to drown/ die of starvation or exposure. Or Kasit describing the voluntary nature of the departure of the now mysteriously unobtainable forcibly repatriated Cambodian refugees? I don’t really see how things under the so called purer democrats can be said to have improved that much. If you grant the current constitution was imposed by a military seeking more autonomy and less accountability then Thailand’s future may become very ugly if there is a future constitutional crisis.

    The arguement often made is that red loving foreigners are often people who were not around during the time of Thaksin. Well I was. And I am glad he’s gone. But the direction that this country is now going in seems to me to be much much worse than anything that Thaksin had in his power to do. Some of the people hanging around in the background have pasts that are beyond frightening …

    Give the reds an election and there will be a conflict at the ballot box. Deny the election and the kind of conflict that will be stored up for the future might make Thailand a truly awful place to live for a while.

  4. Jaded says:

    After I wrote the last comment I had a shower and a shave, a cup of coffee and the best croissant in Bangkok. In a better state of mind now I have to confess that I do feel that I am being a little unfair to Abhisit. While the prime minister PR performances do annoy me it’s equally true that he sets a higher standard for public life in Thailand than almost any other prominent and still active politician. One merely has to think of the commerce minister’s background to realize the standard set for Thai politicians is not … high.

    Obviously Abhisit is searching for a peaceful solution but his hands are tied by the unelected authorities who tell him what to do. And it’s clear, from the famous photograph of him grovelling that his position in the hierarchy is not very high and possibly quite tenuous. He does a fine job as a PR man, particularly when overseas but probably has very little real power. Other people are making the decisions.

    And this brings me back to the letter writer’s own thoughts and what inspired me to comment in the first place. There is one clear message coming through in the last couple of paragraphs of the paper. We need to give some people a few scraps off the table. You can imagine the scene. You invite some friends over for dinner and you are enjoying yourself. And this being a Thai house there are a few dogs around. It’s a great night and everyone is fattened by the feast so you throw a few scraps to your favorite animal in the spirit of sharing … But the other dogs want something too. Whether Abhisit realizes this or not, he’s begging for scraps. And the people and interests that Vongthip represents seem to have realized that they have to throw a few more scraps to the other dogs also.

    (BD: Lest not forget, if it wouldn’t be for the anger and past excesses of a single man we’d have relative peace now and elections not too far away.)

  5. StanG says:

    Who is pulling Abhisit strings? What strings?

    They’d better start pulling the army strings instead as soldiers were beaten at Thaicom today and forced the government to resume PTV signal.

  6. Jaded says:

    Jesus. What a day …

    The chances of this ending well are looking smaller every hour I’d say. The options now seem to be a climbdown by the government or the red shirts – either of which would probably lead to a highly polarized society and increasing civil unrest – or a military coup to re-establish the traditional sources of authority. Abhisit is getting more support from within his own camp but what’s going on outside is looking less and less pleasant …

    I saw something today which startled me. On a soi near the river in BKK there is a lovely locally owned coffee shop when I usually have breakfast or brunch. Opposite there is a massage shop staffed by approximately 7 girls. The last couple of days, while I have been sitting enjoying my coffee on the terrace I have noticed a red shirt driven red ribboned tuk tuk picking up and dropping off one or two of the girls. Nothing exceptional about that. Most of the staff in the businesses along the street are as red shirt in their sentiments as their bosses are yellow … But, around 2.30 pm this afternoon, as I chatted with the coffeeshop owner about her imminent Songkran holiday in Spain something rather exceptional happened. Every girl in the massage shop came trooping out the door looking very determined. The magnificent seven, suitably attired in red bandana’s, squeezed into the back of the redshirt tuk tuk and roared off to the rally confrontation point. Their boss (yellow) switched off the lights and followed them out onto the street with a resigned smile. She sat down in one of the plastic chairs outside and with a shrug of resignation waved them good bye.

    It seems to me that her relationship with her staff is a metaphor for the situation facing Thailand now. Without the co-operation of the Phrai many of Thailand’s businesses are a dead as Central World … They may be misled by their leaders but after lifetimes of abuse, exploitation and disrespect from their betters they may be willing to give up miserable situations to assert their collective voice. However flawed the people who articulating their grievances are, it’s unlikely that their supporters will easily give up their right to express their collective desire for respect.

    Those girls walked out and shut down that business. To judge from the demeanor of the abandoned owner it came as something of a shock to her. A lot of Thailand’s economy is based on such feudal relationships. But to survive now a certain degree of flexibility and previously with held respect may have to be shown.

  7. Jean-Marc says:

    From a Belgian history teacher and Phrais loverl.

    Could Abhisit react as the massage parlour owner!

    But I guess it will take some time for the ruling elite to realize that the times have changed and that the “Real Thailand” has stopped bowing before them …

  8. Peter Hall says:

    @Jaded, I’m happy to see that there is at least one balanced commenter left on this blog. Otherwise I am sad to have to say, it has become an unashamed pink-shirt haven for expats.

    My comments don’t pass muster here anymore, though I am not ashamed of that.

    If only BD could take a page from your book. Does any blogger really just want to create a place where everyone pathetically agrees with each other?

    (BD: Everyone agreeing with each other here? Argh if life would be that black & white. The red peace farce throws the country back, my main worry. They had many other options.)

  9. Jaded says:

    I’ve been looking at the Ko Sarn Road incident again. Last night there are a few images from the end of the road around Burger King and there are plenty of images of the debris of conflict from this morning. I must confess that what I see lends a certain amount of credibility to the third hand theory. It’s an ideal ambush site. The people who messed up the army plans picked their ground very well. Take a look at it on a map. Those little public alleys running off it would conceal the ambushers perfectly. The military would have had nowhere to retreat to but straight back down that narrow road they way that they came for several hundred meters. And the presence of large numbers of foreigners would lull them into a false sense of security and perhaps even initially inhibit their capacity to respond … The decapitation of the command on site was very impressive too. Someone out there is very competent. This probably wasn’t the work of the protestors or even their thuggish guards. It lends a good deal of credibility to the government’s version of events too. The use of firearms may not have been planned in advance but if I was a soldier in that situation I’d pull the trigger on anything that moved too. It would be a them or me kind of situation …

    This in no way implies that I think sending the military in to supress a civil rights demonstration is acceptable or that I think Suthep and his cronies are anything but fascist in their thinking. Still, it may be the case now that opportunists stand ready to take advantage of Thailand’s latest piece of bloody political theater in order to move the story in the direction that they would prefer it to go.

  10. Peter Hall says:

    @Jaded

    Regarding third hand: a tweet from Tulsathit: Have talked to an editor who knew the killed colonel. The colonel’s aide told my friend many attacks on troops came from higher grounds.

    http://twitter.com/tulsathit

    I’ve always wondered who owned those apparently empty apartments on Rajdamnoern.

  11. Jaded says:

    @ Peter Hall

    I had a look at the link that Tulsie sends you to on Twitter. It’s one redshirt guard with a folding stock 7.62mm AK using open or “iron” sights. His firing position, and use of cover suggest some military training, but realistically this guy probably isn’t a contender for having a significant impact on events. That kind of weapon has very poor accuracy in ideal circumstances. Maybe he’d hit what he was aiming at if they were close enough to here him shout but basically it’s a point and spray weapon.

    However I did see photos elsewhere of one of the captured soldiers. He’s wearing a sniper style boiler suit and a mesh head cover that in the photo looks like a scarf around his neck. One of the redshirt guards with him is carrying a sniper version of the M14 still containing a 40 round magazine. It’s a probably a EBR version firing .308 rounds. Normally, as anyone who goes to American movies will know, he would be operating with a companion spotter … Effective accurate range of this weapon would be between 800 and 1,000 meters in ideal conditions. From the roof tops around there almost any shot would therefore be possible. The fact that the weapon was automatic and fitted with a high capacity 40 round magazine would suggest that many shots had been, at the very least, contemplated …

    There is an interesting photo in The Nation of a soldier who “lost his way” put all his camy’s into a garbage bag, “borrowed” clothes from some locals and walked out of one of the other protest sites. I’d be inclined to say that a more likely explanation is that they would have come prepared for that situation …

    Clearly, if this wassn’t a sanctioned operation by the military command then someone else wants to take the situation in another direction.

    (BD: And have a look at this – http://twitter.com/terryfrd/status/11990103338 )

  12. Jaded says:

    A small correction. The M!$ sniper version is chambered in &.62 by 55 Nato. It’s almost identical to the .308 but I would correct this for the benefit of any gun nuts out there. The red shirts have a lot of cartridge cases so it would be a simple matter to check. Presumably the sniper would not have had a chance to clear away the spent cases so you could also simply check the area where the sniper/snipers were said to be located.

  13. Jaded says:

    Tulsie and his The Nation mates are trying to spin this in the direction of the reds of course. More interesting is why the red leadership agreed to hand the sniper back as this guy in particular surely could provide most interesting information about who was giving him orders.

  14. Jaded says:

    Crikey Dan, I followed your link and looked a 0.33 again. The images have been digitally altered. This clip was going around before without any muzzle flash (which would look nothing like this at all anyway). Wow. This is real coverup conspiracy spin now. Whether or not that guy actually fired, this clip made sure the viewer thinks he did. He probably did though. Why take the risk otherwise. And as he is firing down a narrow street if the target was close then he had a pretty good chance of hitting what he was shooting at. What can you really say? The red shirts had loads of guns. When the shooting started at least one red guard used a gun. That’s about all this shows really …

  15. Jaded says:

    I now cannot find the photo of the M14 I looked at earlier today on my iPhone while I was at the mall. However, the sniper is in comment #5 on this thread on Pantip.

    http://www.pantip.com/cafe/rajdumnern/topic/P9113788/P9113788.html

    There is no sign of a sniper rifle as suggested in the second pic. The M16 and the new Israeli TAR 21s are not in the same league as an M!4. (I don’t want to start any conspiracy theories.)

  16. Jaded says:

    I’ll try to make this my last post on weaponry. I don’t have any liking for guns or the men who use them but in this instance the interpretation of what happened on Saturday evening turns on who was armed and what kind of arms they were carrying. The government’s spokesman are saying that there were weapons being used that were not part of the official armory. To back this up there have been many references to the model of grenade that may or may not have been used. I must say that I am quite impressed that they were able to identify the ordinance in question so quickly. Somebody must have collected shards from the scene?

    But the pictures and video on the net of what appears to be a red shirt guard brandishing an AK47 are also part of the same spin and I have to point out something. While the units involved from the Thai Royal Army do not use the AK it is a common item amongst the Rangers. According to Michael Connors in Sovereign Myth:

    “Some of the red guards are thaharn praan or rangers. I meet a group that stands guard outside the police hospital. They are from Pakthonchai, Ratchasima. One tells me that while the government has paid for some rangers to come to Bangkok to guard various sites he and his men are not for hire and have come voluntarily to protect the red-shirts. Asked how this would all end he says, “There must be blood, history is like that.”

    It seems to me unlikely that the AK was captured from either the police or the army however from this source’s testimony it would appear that both sides could have fielded this weapon…

  17. StanG says:

    Jaded, what about these guns?

    Another question, can regular weapons used by the soldiers cause deaths “from being hit by high-power rifle bullets” as per autopsy report?

    Also, have you seen the video of this shooter, at about 1 min mark? Never mind the regular reds firing away earlier.

  18. Jaded says:

    Seen that pic already. Upgraded version of m 16 in the foreground looks a bit different to older model which was also floating around in various hands. All the weapons visible are standard for the govt forces attending. Could be the Isreali weapons are more accurate and more potent than other firearms? An expert on Palestinian injuries might be able to enlighten you. One of the papers has illustrated the high powered bullet story with a photo of the barrett light 50. This seems unlikely as a hit in the fhe head from this cal would leave little for the pathologist to examine. The head injuries I saw are consistent with smaller cal rounds.

  19. Jaded says:

    I wrote the last comment on my iphone but now that I am home and i have had a chance to study the pictures and video I agree its very interesting. First the pic is an M16 however the barrel looks a little too long to be standard. From this angle you can’t see if there is an optical sight mounted with I should think would be an absolute requirement if you are expecting to be hitting moving people in the forehead in darkness at that kind of distance.

    The video footage seems to show at least one aimed shot from a balcony. With the fusillade of fire taking place in the background its hard to say much about it without context. I imagine the investigators will be able to determine from where people were hit the general trajectories of the weapons that were firing and form conclusions but as there was a lot of firing going on you can’t really determine much from the retorts heard in the sound track.

    I think the government’s case that there may have been a third hand involved is plausible even without the various pieces of possibly corroborating evidence that are emerging. A small group of spotters and shooters could easily have provoked the reactions of both sides. What interests me is that if, as has been suggested, a possible sniper and support team was captured then why did the Redshirt leadership give them back to the military without comment? I wonder if the Red version narrative of events is so conveniently damming of the government and military that any potential exculpatory evidence needs to be excluded? This is just my suspicious mind but it does seem that their leadership continues to use false information and untrue stories long after these “facts” have been demonstrated not to be the case. The whiff of more than one conspiracy is present here perhaps?

  20. StanG says:

    Jaded, have you seen the video of the guy who was later put up on the red stage, being shot?

    Half his skull just blew off and brains flew out on the pavement. The video has been taken down from YouTube but I’m sure you’ve seen the grisly pictures taken afterwards. He’s got no cranium left to speak of.

    Sorry for being so insensitive to the victim.

  21. Jaded says:

    Hi Stan,

    on iPhone again so apologies for spelling and grammar. I saw photos sure. But it’s impossible for me to comment. I have seen a small number of gunshot wounds to the head. All I can say is that it really depends on the circumstances. I saw a guy literally lose his head after a point blank shot from an AL. Was the bullet doctored? Did the muzzle velocity and kinetic energy from the explosive gases cause that? Did the bullet tumble in a special way because it was so close? These and other morbid questions only occured to me some time after seeing this. My Initial reaction was one of horror and disgust. Thinking about it still sickens me. I applaud your desire to get at the truth but it’s something best left to experts. Even then, with all the variables involved in this situation and the continued occupation of the scene it’s unlikely that this event will ever be completely understood. This is JFK territory … The fog of war … And as the agencies investigating are likely to have their own political agendas it’s entirely likely that the facts will be selectively utilized to support political positions. Occum’s razor probably works as well as anything else. The simplest explanation is the most likely. Looking for more complicated explanations, however well intentioned your motives may be, is probably futile.

    Perhaps I should also say that I observed people being shot in the Balkans in the 1990’s and my comments are based on those experiences. The incident I refer to was recorded and is available along with many other attrocity videos from the Open Society Archive in Budapest.

  22. Ordinary reader says:

    StanG,

    Yes I saw the video of the red victim with half his skull blown out as you described. It is now available for sale along Ratchaprasong sidewalk.

    I am asking your expert opinion: who shot him with this kind of rifle/bullet? Is it Abhisit’s soldiers or the so-called terrorists mixing freely among the reds?

    Why does the government continue very hard to block the Red TV? Is it because they are anxious that such a clip on the poor victim will be aired? Thanks.

  23. StanG says:

    I don’t think he could have been killed by retreating soldiers – he was too far away and behind too many people.

    Army guy on TV implied he was shot from the red shirt side, i.e. his right, while soldiers were to his left.

    I think Red TV is blocked because the govt views it as the main communication tool of the armed insurgency.

    What’s the latest, BTW – last time I heard Thaicom was fully under red authority with no govt or police allowed anywhere near.

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