The Vongthip Letter Aug 08
What a busy July 08 we had in Thailand with the buildup of a judicial tsunami, a telling guilty verdict and the unhappy 59th birthday of Thaksin Shinawatra.
It’s not all yet well and worse may still come – at least some defining, long overdue steps are taken. But is the end near?!
As every month Khun Vongthip Chumpani gives you the background and assessment of what has and will happen. Making sense of it all.
By Vongthip Chumpani*
Political tsunami: 8/7/08 was indeed a fatal day for Thaksin & Co. The Supreme Court began their first hearing of the Ratchadapisek Land case, the first criminal trial against Thaksin since the coup of 19/9/06. On the same day, the same court decided to upheld the Election Commission’s decision to disqualify Yongyuth Tiyapairat, former Parliament President and Deputy Leader of PPP, banning him from political activities for five years. The sentence automatically triggered the legal process to dissolve his party.
Later in the day, the Constitution Court ruled that Minister of Foreign Affairs, Noppadon Pattama’s joint-communique with the Cambodian Government was unlawful. While PAD and other groups moved to impeach and file criminal charges against him, Noppadon quickly resigned. Then Minister of Health, Chaiya Sasomsap had to vacate his seat after Supreme Court found him guilty of failing to report his wife’s over 5% shareholding in a private company.
Judicial power
Throughout 7/08, a spaghetti bowl of legal actions (by and against the pro-government, the anti-government and the government) have been filed, tried and passed judgment on by the various courts. On 22/7/08 Da Torpedo, a notorious Nor Por Kor activist, was summarily jailed for lese majesty.
On 23/7/08 an arrest warrant was out for Sonthi Limthongkul, a PAD core leader, for repeating Da Torpedo’s lese majesty remarks at the Makawan rally on 21/7/08. The next morning, over 10,000 Pantamits turned up to accompany Sonthi to report to the police and refused to disperse until he was granted bail.
On 28/7/08, Supreme Court accepted the Lottery case for trial against Thaksin and his then 41 cabinet members, 3 of whom have joined the Samak Cabinet. Instead of resigning, the trio opted to seek legal interpretation from the Council of the State. On 29/7/08 Supreme Court ruled to accept the Eximbank case for trial in 9/08.
Stocking up for the election
Although PM Samak has managed to recruit foreign affairs veteran, Tej Bunnag, as the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, in time for bilateral meeting with Cambodia on Phra Viharn dispute on 28/7/08, the line-up of his new cabinet was not without fierce horse-trading among PPP’s various factions and their coalition parties.
On 29/7/08 DPM Suvit Koonkitti, leader of Puea Phendin Party, resigned from the cabinet. His party members did not follow suit, preferring to hang on to their cabinet posts.
It was simply not possible for them to walk away from a string of ludicrous mega projects worth hundreds of million that were being approved quietly and farmed out dubiously at every cabinet meeting!
On 5/8/07, intelligent voters were up in arms when PM Samak appointed as his cabinet’s economic advisors, 5 high profiled chairmen/directors of large Thai conglomerates, endowing them with full power to participate in cabinet meetings, policy deliberations and approval of government procurement and projects. Although it was legal, the appointment was clearly against good governance as well as a blatant conflict of interest.
Guilty!
On 31/7/08, the Criminal Court shocked Thaksin’s family and their loyal supporters by sentencing the country’s most politically powerful woman, Pojaman Shinawatra, to 3 year imprisonment, along with her two accomplices. She was found guilty of “conspiracy to deceive” in the THB 546 million tax evasion case and was harshly reprimanded for not setting a good example in her role as a very rich and powerful PM’s wife.
Although she was granted bail and could appeal within 30 days, this landmark case did signify the direction of the Supreme Court’s deliberations of the remaining 10 cases already lined up against Thaksin & Co. For the couple, their immediate choice was whether to stay and fight or to run away! Then there was a report on the family’s exceptionally tearful farewell at the airport when Pojaman left with 9 huge suitcases for her trip to Beijing on 5/8/08.
Unhappy 59th birthday
Up to now, PM Samak seemed to have been trying in vain to save his (former?) party boss by amending Article 309 of the 2550 Constitution, obtaining the release of his frozen THB 76 billion cash, closing down ASTV and putting an end to PAD’s daily rally at Makawan. On 26/7/08 Thaksin emerged to celebrate his 59th birthday with his family and loyal supporters. On 28/7/08, the court approved Thaksin and Pojaman’s request to travel to China to attend the Olympic Opening.
Early in 8/08, there were strong rumors that Thakin and his family were seeking political asylum in China or the UK, and, that his ample cash flows to Nor Por Kor and some of the PPP factions have been drastically reduced or cut off altogether. The next few weeks would be crucial for the dramatic changes in the Thai political scenario.
Gang of Four
Throughout 7/08, PM Samak continued to battle the engulfing political storms while he did his notorious political “song and dance” to distract the mass media and the public from important issues. The unpopular PM has employed every trick of the trade to survive and to eliminate his opponents. Three of his cabinet members had to resign in disgrace.
Four were declared to be disqualified. The Phra Viharn blunder, the brutal attack against PAD in Udonthani, and, the handful of new corruption scandals, have eroded whatever credibility he has left. Early in 8/08, both Samak government and PPP party seemed to be breaking up from within. The sudden departure of DPM Suvit Khunkitti, leader of Puea Phendin Party on 29/7/08 was a bombshell for the foreign business community.
Finally on 2/8/08, the new (just-as-ugly) Samak (4) cabinet was put together by the increasingly powerful “Gang of Four” who appeared to be abandoning “Nai Yai” and “Nai Ying,” as they set out to form a new party of their own with their freshly acquired funds.
The end is near?!
Now into their 74 days, the PAD continued to attract more “students” to their Rajdamnern University at Makawan and to rallies that have sprung up all over the country. Encouraged by the strong momentum, PAD’s roving “lecturers and preachers” have been undeterred by hostile pro-Thaksin mobs, particularly in the North and the Northeast. On 24/7/08, however, the Pantamits were badly mauled by the “red shirts” in Udon Thani.
PAD immediately brought the case to the UN in Bangkok to investigate 11 violent attacks against Pantamits by “government-sponsored” mobs. International Human Rights Watch also came out to censure Samak Government for failure to uphold citizens’ right to peaceful assembly.
On 2/8/08, some 20,000 Pantamits, from all over the country, assembled at Makawan to march to the Democracy Monument and the Grand Palace. The show of force was accompanied by a vow to assemble again, in bigger numbers, for the final sit-in as soon as PPP filed for constitution amendment (articles 237,309,190 and 63) in the House.
The battered economy
Much to the chagrin of the Minister of Finance, the Bank of Thailand has started to increase their Repo rate by 0.25% to 3.50%. With 7/08 inflation shooting up to 9.2%, other local interest rates were trending north. Banks have begun their “war for deposits” in earnest. In 6/08, export went up 28.5% to USD 16.1 billion. Import up 31.5% to USD 15.2 billion.
Trade surplus was USD 926 million. Current account surplus was USD 722 million. Balance of payment showed deficit of USD 3,752 million. Official foreign reserve remained around USD 105.7 billion. On 31/7/08 the Baht was at 33.50.
Local oil prices plunged dramatically as global oil prices dived to USD 120 and local excise taxes were reduced under Samak Government’s “6 relief measures for 6 months” campaign. Business and consumer confidence however did not improve. The SET bottomed out at 660 on 18/7/08 to end the month rather weak and thin at 676.
Lessons learnt
The unexpected “loss” of Phreah Vihear was a wake-up call for most complacent Thai voters. Up to now, we spent four minutes going into the election booths and thought we had done our duty as responsible citizens. We believed we could leave politicians and bureaucrats to run the country for us. Because of Thaksin & Co., we have come to realize, at long last, that we could no longer entrust the country entirely to the government-machine.
People’s participation has now become an indispensable part of the Thai democracy. The people need to watch the politicians and monitor the government closely. We have to scrutinize their policies diligently and their actions vigilantly, while demanding from them good governance, transparency and accountability.
We must not be afraid to listen to our fellow citizens, understand their rationale and reach our own conclusion before speaking up and speaking out boldly on issues that are important to us. In short, we have to change our thinking and our behaviors quite drastically if we were to join hands to seek the right political solutions for our beloved country.
* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.