The Vongthip Letter Dec 07
Khun Vongthip Chumpani of Bangkok Bank does it again: With her monthly thoughts about Thailand – and beyond.
Dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s of all that is relevant in Thailand these days. Prophet-like.
Read Khun Vongthip’s newsletter for December 07: A juicy rant about Viagra pills and elections (not the Chinese pronunciation), a very special birthday and the truth and nothing but the truth about the global war not against oil, but emissions:
By Vongthip Chumpani*
Amazing love: In Thailand, the year-end festive mood always begins with the celebration of HM the King’s birthday on 5/12/07. This year, however, it has been an unforgettable 80th birthday festivity. HM’s devoted subjects, elated by his remarkable recovery from a stroke, went all out to show their love and devotion to the nation’s most beloved and longest reigning monarch. Throughout the day and the evening, tens of thousand of people, clad in a sea of yellow, lined the royal route to the Grand Palace where religious ceremonies and a public audience took place.
Most of the 65 million Thais all over the country sat glued to their TV screens to hear HM’s annual informal address to the people, urging them again and again to hold national stability and security above all else. On 5/12/07, they gathered to parade, light their candles, read out their birthday messages and sang their “love songs” for HM. The spontaneous love and mutually reciprocated devotion between HM and his subjects, as captured by the international TV networks, has once again amazed the people of the world.
Democracy for sale
With the national election set to take place on 23/12/07, political bosses have started their dog-eat-dog fights in earnest. Old and new tricks have been used to discredit opponents and win the hearts and souls of their voters, using the most imaginative and sophisticated means e.g. THB 500/head cash; Viagra pills; BTS tokens; free sight-seeing trips, credit card installment payments; gift checks; prepaid phone cards etc. etc. etc.
In 11/07, most poll results seemed to place PPP (TRT) Party as the number one favorite in the Northeast, commanding the highest number of MPs (183) especially from the grassroots. Although they had the most intelligent and workable platform, and were expected to have the highest number of votes in Bangkok, the Democrats have been trailing behind with only around 135 votes.
Risen from the ashes?
Most of the newly set up “neutral parties” have been losing steam or were in disarray in 11/07. The most desperate was the Matchima Tipatai whose business tycoon leader, Prachai, was sentenced on 3/12/07 to three year imprisonment term for shares manipulation years ago. The Puea Pandin Party lacked funding and was moving nowhere. Then there was a strong push to remove General Sonthi from CNS because of a leaked-out order to woo voters away from PPP Party.
It came as no surprise therefore when a political dragon like Banharn announced that his Chart Thai Party was free to join any party at all to form the next coalition government. Some election pundits have shifted their bets on the next PM from Abhisit or Samak to Banharn or Dr. Surapong (PPP-TRT). No wonder Sonthi Limthongkul, who spear-headed the anti-Thaksin movement, was so broken hearted that he joined the monkhood early in 11/07. The pro-Thaksinists have become bolder now that the political pendulum might be swinging their way once more.
The troubled lawmakers
With many of the lawmakers joining political parties as candidates or advisers, the National Legislative Assembly too has been in disarray from trying desperately to pass some of the 42 bills that have been rushed through the cabinet for approval so that they could be passed before their term officially ended. Many of the 19 urgent bills, including the Security Act, were approved by the House, in most cases with less than 70 out of 241 votes (mostly tied up in other committee meetings)!
Important laws remained pending early in 12/07 were: all the Financial Acts, Transportation Act, Public Procurement Decree, State Enterprise Corporatization Act, Civil Servant Act, Private Sector Participation Act, and Pubic Debts Act. The fate of the Retail Trade Act and the Foreign Business Act remained unknown or unconfirmed so far. The Lottery Act has finally been left pending for decision by the next parliament.
Oil at USD 100 plus
In 11/07 oil prices failed to break the USD 100 psychological level after hitting USD 99.29. Although profit-taking has softened to around USD 85, many believed a new high might just be around the corner due to increasing complexity and fragility of the world’s energy market. Many have cautioned that Thailand needed to wake up to the facts that high oil prices would be here to stay and that they could lead quite quickly to oil supply interruptions.
Up to now, the country did not appear to have taken energy conservation seriously and Thailand might not have set up sufficient strategic oil reserve as a cushion in case a of prolonged global oil supply disruption. Following HM the King’s advice, the government promised to increase production of bio diesel and other alternative energy.
The bad news
Throughout 11/07 there were numerous seminars and conferences on the topic of climate change. One interesting observation was that international action on climate change has been a war against emissions, not a war against oil. Oil would continue to play a pivotal role in the global energy mix for decades to come, not least due to growing global energy demand. But oil would have to be decarbonized with adequate technologies and OPEC could therefore deliver a big part of the solution to climate change.
Although there seemed to be better awareness of the problems, nothing noteworthy has been done so far by both the government and the private sector to reduce the growth rates of oil consumption and gas emissions. With unchecked construction of high-rises going on everywhere even in small lanes where tens of thousand of new cars continued to jam, Bangkok has been ranked behind Tokyo and New York, as the 3rd most polluted city in the world in 2007!
The good news
The World Bank’s report on the Ease of Doing Business 2008, in 149 countries, has this year ranked Thailand as No. 15 – compared to Malaysia 24, Korea 30, China 83, Vietnam 91, Indonesia 123, the Philippines 133. This came as a pleasant surprise and sounded almost too good to be true. In the last eighteen months, we have been sternly warned again and again by both local and foreign investors that compared to our neighbors, we were fast losing our attractiveness and competitiveness.
Although this WB report did not cover all the important areas of FDI and we have absolutely no reason to gloat over it, the revelation was at least good for our sagging morale. We also could not help feeling somewhat vindicated, that many of those bitter complaints against Thailand were indeed irrational, biased and quite unfair for one reason or another.
Better days ahead?
Although inflation rates in Thailand have remained comparatively low, prices of many essential products, such as cooking oil and gas, sugar etc. have been pushing up quietly across the board. As usual, the urban poor have been suffering more than their rural counterparts with their more simple lifestyle.
Lucky for the grassroots this year, the on-going political campaigns have created financial windfalls all over the country. Meanwhile, robberies and crimes in the cities have continued to climb as the “desperados” tried to make ends meet. The lame-duck government could not do much as they waited it out patiently to handover the government (and the problems ) to the new government.
Let’s be glad
As we say goodbye to 2007 and welcome 2008 this month, let us keep our spirit up and count our blessings. Let us hope for the best and prepare for the worst. In spite of all the headaches and the heartaches that we have gone through and need to go through as a nation, a corporation, a family and an individual, we know that in the end goodness will prevail and that we shall be given what we really deserve.
If we are aware of the dangers and try our best to carry out our duties and responsibilities to the best of our ability, we have nothing to fear. As HM the King has been telling us, if we are united and practice the Sufficiency Philosophy, our country would continue to remain stable and secured for years and years to come.
With my best wishes
May I take this opportunity to also thank you for the good words, kind advice and constructive comments that you have sent to me in the past 12 months. Your kind and enthusiastic respond to my Newsletter has been my inspiration and has given me the strength to continue writing although I have often been confused and overwhelmed by the turn of events. Please also accept my best wishes for a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. May 2008 bring you and your family peace, joy, happiness, prosperity and, most importantly, the best of health. Cheers!
* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.