The Vongthip Letter Dec 08

A beautiful farewell: On 14-16, ’08, the Thai nation paused to say goodbye to their favorite Princess Galayani who had been quietly contributing to Thai society for decades. The traditional royal cremation was indeed a most memorable and picturesque event.

Once again, Thai people had the opportunity to look back with pride at their centuries old culture and national heritage, as well as to share the sorrow of their beloved King for the loss of his precious sister. During those brief three days, the people were comforted and strengthened by HM’s love for his people and vice versa.

For a while anyway, all the political, economic and social problems were far, far away. Thailand was again the land of peace and unity, protected from all troubles by the loving dedication of their wise and just king. The vagabond PM: In spite of political and economic upheavals in the country, PM Somchai flew off to attend the Apec Meeting in Peru on 21/11/08.

By Vongthip Chumpani*

Upon his return on 26/11/08, the beleaguered PM opted to land in Chiangmai where he curtly announced that he would not dissolve the parliament as called for by General Anupong, after the latter’s emergency meeting with key military chiefs and the JSCCIB’s representatives on 25/11/08. All the while, PM Somchai remained in Chiangmai, under the heavy protection of his own Red Shirts guards.

He played golf, activated the national emergency decree over the two Bangkok airports, appointed pro Thaksin police chiefs to force out PAD, chaired two cabinet meetings, summarily removed Pol. Gen. Patcharawat as Police Chief, visited some temples in the Northeast, threatened to remove more bureaucrats for failing to carry out ministerial orders and could not decide, until 2/12/08, to postpone the ASEAN Summit Meeting from 15/12/08 to 3/09.

PAD’s kamikaze

After 190 odd days of sit-in and almost nightly salvos of M 79 grenades (6 dead and scores wounded), the PAD could no longer remain passive when PPP MP’s summarily scheduled the first reading of the constitution amendment bill on 24/11/08. The PAD declared their “Last War” on 23/11/08. Over ten thousand protesters turned up to surround the parliament in the early hours of 24/11/08.

When the parliamentary session was abruptly postponed, they moved on to occupy the temporary government seat at Don Mueang airport just before a cabinet meeting broke up. The next morning, they took the unthinkable step and surrounded the Suvarnabhumi International Airport, where they vowed to remain until PM Somchai resigned. As soon as the panicked AOT chief closed down the Suvarnabhumi Airport in the evening of 25/11/08, all hell broke loose.

Don Mueang Airport was also closed down on 26/11/08. Thousands more demonstrators joined the 3 PAD sites, undeterred by the National Emergency Decree, the nightly grenades and the daily concert of jeers and scorns from the press and the public. When Somchai’s premiership was terminated by the court judgment on 2/12/08, the PAD called off their demonstration and went home in the morning of 3/12/08.

A nightmare

As tens of thousands of passengers, tourists and airline staffs were left stranded, tour operators and exporters alike were stunned to see how disorganized the AOT and government officials in charge were. As required of any regional hub, emergency steps to control the damages were not taken until a few days after the PAD siege.

Even the shocking Mumbai terrorist attack on 25/11/08 could not divert the on-going negative publicity for Thai tourism and exports. Thailand’s reputation as an aviation hub and a safe tourist destination were ruined overnight. Faced with the climbing collateral damages, the Thai private sector had enough of the PPP government.

On 30/11/08, JSCCIB (Board of Trade, Federation of Thai Industries and Thai Bankers Association) took an unprecedented move to demand the immediate resignation of PM Somchai (to make way for another political party to form the government) and the evacuation of the airports by PAD. Full page ad of the joint statement was published in all major newspapers. Defiant PM Somchai refused to budge.

A rude awakening

On 2/12/08, the Constitution Court publicly read out their stern and harsh judgment on Election Commission’s ruling to dissolve the PPP, Matchima and Chart Thai parties for election frauds. All 132 executives of the three parties were banned from political activities for 5 years. Notwithstanding their strong protests and ugly threats, the much publicized Red Shirts’ mass attack on the court did not materialize.

PM Somchai and 13 of his 35 cabinet members were automatically disqualified by the ruling. DPM Chaovarat became Acting PM and a parliamentary meeting to elect Thailand’s 27th PM has been scheduled for 8/12/08. The power struggle has shifted back to the parliament and the senate. The MP’s of the dissolved parties could continue to function until they could join new political parties within 60 days.

Much as they mourned the huge collateral damages to the country, many people were glad that Thailand has at last woken up to the cruel reality that the country was being torn apart, deeper and wider than most people realized. The Thai society could no longer ignore the situation and sweep their political and social problems under the carpet again for the sake of the country’s economic growth and wellbeing.

PM’s code of conduct

In the last few months, more and more people have come to believe that the single root cause of our worst ever political crisis has been none other than a man called Thaksin Shinawatra. The former strongman has broken Thai leaders’ code of conduct that has been practiced since the time HM King Rama VII abdicated to avoid bloodshed after a military coup brought down Absolute Monarchy in 1932.

This self-sacrificing code of conduct was practiced successively by PM Field Marshal Pibul, PM Predi Panonyong, PM Field Marshal Thanom, PM General Chartchai and PM General Suchinda, all of whom, upon losing their political power, simply swallowed their pride and walked quietly away, in order to avoid violent confrontations and further political upheavals. Things would not have become so disastrous if Thaksin were to follow the example of his predecessors and make the same sacrifice!

Persona non grata

On 7/11/08, the U.K. dropped a bomb shell when they cancelled the visa of Thaksin and his wife while they were visiting Beijing. Furious Thaksin left China for Dubai, from where he started another white washing PR blitz of interviews with international mass media and phone-ins to address the Red Shirt mass rally in Bangkok.

The couple then flew to Hong Kong to meet with their loyal lieutenants, register their divorce at the Thai consular, and launch Thaksin’s “Better Future for Asia Foundation”. It did not take long before Thaksin had to move from Hong Kong to Cambodia, where he supervised the all-out fight to return to Thailand as “savior of democracy and the poor.”

Meanwhile, the Red Shirts have started to organize larger political rallies and step up their vicious attacks against the PAD, the army, the judiciary and the “elites”, accusing them of conspiring to stage a “coup” against Thaksin & Co. The PPP government and their loyal supporters continued to promote a similar line of thinking on local and international mass media and among the international business community.

The will to change fast

Like in other Asian countries, business people in Thailand were busy bracing themselves against the Global Recession when domestic politics smashed their business to pieces from behind. Overnight exporters of JIT electronics and perishable products could not ship their goods by air. As some 240,000 travelers were stranded, all tourism related industries had to switch on their “Tsunami Mode”. Panicked private sector kept slashing their 09 forecast figures.

GDP growth rate was revised down to 2%-3%, export to 0% and tourism to -50%. The Baht weakened to THB 36. Inflation softened to 2%, thanks to $45 oil price. The SET was wavering around 400. The political vacuum seemed to have left the country on auto-pilot. International agencies downgraded Thailand’s country risk to “Negative.”

To put Thailand back on her feet again economically and socially, Thai people would have to make themselves heard, take hard decisions and make personal sacrifices very quickly in order to bring back the national unity, the rule of law and the trust in their government that have been sorely lacking in the past few years.

* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.