The Vongthip Letter Dec 09
A Royal Happy Birthday: HM the King’s 82nd birthday on 5/12/09 would be the best ever celebration organized by the Thai government for the country’s most beloved king. The nine days “birthday party” would be indeed a warmly welcomed respite from the “political madness” that the people of Thailand have been subjected to in the last three to four years.
HM the King’s recovery from his recent illness too has brought great joy to the people, especially those who have taken him for granted for so long and were now determined to make up for it. At the back of everyone’s mind, however, has been the worry of further political conflicts once the red shirts resumed their aggressive attacks, in and outside of the parliament.
To topple the Abhisit government any time from now until 2/10 when the Supreme was expected to pass their verdict on Thaksin’s THB 76 billion frozen fund. For now anyway, the people would enjoy a public display of love, respect and gratitude for His Majesty. Long Live the King!
By Vongthip Chumpani*
In spite of all the dire predictions, PM Abhisit has managed to survive yet another tumultuous month in 11/09 and was looking forward to the review his first year’s performance on 23/12/09. Throughout 11/09 the Abhisit government could not but be distracted by the continuous flow of political incidents that Thaksin & Co. were spinning in and outside the country. The now-street-wise Abhisit was able to deal remarkably well with these tricky events.
By putting the country’s best interest before all else, PM Abhisit was able to steer the country through stormy political waters while continuing to carry out the normal duties of a premier and making trips abroad and upcountry. Although the Thai Khaem Kaeng Programs were not all successfully implemented, much have been achieved. With prices of rice, maize and tapioca climbing steadily, farmers were happy with the new agricultural price guarantee program.
New schemes were introduced in 11/09, albeit not without the usual teething problems e.g. electricity for all Thais within two years; government debts refinancing of poor debtors in the unorganized market; monthly allowance for the handicapped etc. At the rate he was going, PM Abhisit’s popularity among the “silent majority” has been inching up quietly.
Takki Shinegra of Cambodia
On 10/11/09 Thaksin flew into Pnom Penh and was received PM Hun Sen and his family, as Cambodia’s honorable advisor and international business guru. For most Thai people, however, the incident was both unthinkable and unbelievable. Strong patriotic sentiments rose suddenly, against PM Hun Sen for insulting the Thai institutions and against Thaksin & Co. for their betrayal. Encouraged by public sentiments, PM Abhisit summarily recalled the Thai ambassador to Cambodia and went on to revoke the Thai-Cambodian MOU (2543) on maritime border settlement.
The military, on both sides of the border, went on full alert as PM Hun Sen escalated his verbal attacks on PM Abhisit. On the day (14/11/009) Thaksin left Siem Reap (where some 50 Puea Thai MP’s went to pay their homage to their “dear leader and his bosom friend”), a Thai “spy” was thrown into jail for giving away Thaksin’s flight details! Thai-Cambodia diplomatic relationship sank to the bottom on the eve of Apec Meeting in Singapore.
Pacific Rim Partnership
PM Hun Sen’s “inappropriate behaviors” have resulted in an unexpected surge of support for PM Abhisit at home and abroad. The world was watching closely how PM Abhisit would manage the difficult internal situation as well as the external challenge from Thailand’s aggressive neighbor, Cambodia, when he attended the Apec Meeting and co-hosted the first Asean-U.S. Summit Meeting with President Obama on 13-15/11/09 in Singapore.
PM Abhisit conducted himself well enough and was even given a standing ovation when he addressed the Apec CEO Summit, calling for a global economic recovery that would be “well balanced, sustainable and beneficial to all.” During this regionally important meeting, President Obama went so far as to propose a full partnership of the Asia- Pacific Rim as Apec Members, U.S. and China vowed to maintain their stimulus spending, revamp the world economy, reject protectionism, and promote a huge free trade market.
The cat-and-mouse game
Once the red shirts started their series of all-out frontal attacks against the establishment and the Abhisit government in 11/09, public sentiments turned drastically against Thaksin and his red shirts. The people resented Thaksin’s high profile offensive interview in the Times On-Line, his arrogant visit to Cambodia as PM Hun Sen’s bosom friend, the threat on PM Abhisit’s life if he were to attend the Thai Chamber of Commerce annual get-together in Chiangmai on 30/11/09, a marathon rally of one million demonstrators scheduled to start on 28/11/09 etc.
This series of strategically planned incidents and events have alarmed the public at large and put the Abhisit government once again on full alert. Meanwhile, both the blue shirts and the yellow shirts seemed to have come to their senses. They rallied around the Abhisit government, kept a low profile and even gave PM Abhisit their subtle support in one form or another. How long this “truce” would last was anyone’s guess.
Out of the tunnel
In 11/09, both government and private sector seemed to agree that the economy was well on the road to recovery, albeit at a slower pace. The 3Q09 growth rate shrank to 0.8%. CPI was up 0.4%. Industrial output increased substantially and industrial capacity utilization increased to 66.3%. Manufacturer confidence climbed to its highest level in four years due to a hefty rise in export orders. In 10/09, yoy export was down by only -2.6% at USD 14.62 billion. Import yoy was -19% at USD 2.98 billion.
Trade balance, current account balance and balance of payment all remained in the black at USD 1,688 million, USD 1, 178 million and USD 140 million respectively. International reserves moved up to USD 135.3 billion. Unemployment went down to only 1.2% or 460,000, instead of 2 million as previously feared. Tourist arrivals went up 17% in 9/09 and 20% in 10/09. For the whole year however the number has been revised down to 13.7 million from 14 million.
The THB firmed to THB 33.22, in line with most regional currencies. The SET ended the month on a high note at 689. Gold continued its spectacular climb towards USD 1,200/oz. Oil prices fluctuated at USD 75 level. The Dubai World’s bubble burst and the 5% devaluation of Vietnamese currency were considered to have marginal impact on the country’s overall economic recovery.
An expensive lesson
Although the Supreme Court’s ruling to allow only 11 out of 76 industrial projects put on hold by court injunction, was a set back for the private sector, the market remained optimistic that solutions could be worked out soon enough by the special committee set up under the chairmanship of the highly respected former PM Anand Panyarachun. Because of this historical case, most people have come to realize at last that it was no longer possible to leave “the people” out of the business equations when environmental sensitive projects were being assessed and approved.
Politicians and government officials would have to do their homework more promptly and diligently to ensure that pertinent environmental rules and regulations were clear and transparent. In newly introduced PPP concept i.e. joint ventures between public and private sector too would have to encompass participation of the people in the public hearings to ensure smooth operations and sustainable business growth. Corporations and NGOs needed to learn to communicate, negotiate and cooperate more effectively for their long term mutual benefits. Like it or not, CSR has now become an integral part of the business and is no longer a matter of choice or luxury!
Happy New Year!
As we say goodbye to 2009 and prepare ourselves for 2010, it is time to take stock of our lives, our community and our country. If anything, the bitter experience and agony that we shared in the last twelve months has taught us that political stability and continuity were most vital for the country’s overall economy and good for business. Many people have therefore resolved to work together to get better MPs into parliament and in the government.
Since “voter education” has become so vital for Thailand, the private sector could no longer afford not to give their full support to “voter education” in one form or another, as part of their CSR contribution. Those brave enough to do so now, would be deeply appreciated by the public who have become fed up with greedy officials, power grabbing politicians and corrupt MPs. May 2010 bring us better MP’s and cleaner government officials so that Thailand could get the kind of government she truly deserved for a change!
* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.
Pardon me for being cynical, and call me a rotten party-pooper, but the sight of thousands upon thousands of people determined to out-grovel, out-hyperbole and out-syrup each other is almost unbearably stomach-churning. Their desperation to gain some sort of validation by association is just dismal – can you imagine this sort of nonsense in any other country outside of Africa? Or indeed in any country where the average IQ of the population is not nearly 20% lower than normal for human beings? Piteous indeed.
Loyalty is one thing but sometimes it would be easy to get the impression that these people have no dignity, no self-respect, but are instead possessed of an abiding need to prostrate and humiliate themselves on the altar of what must surely be the most delusional acceptance of cradle-to-the-grave propaganda on behalf of a few miserably privileged and chinless folk the world has ever seen. Indeed, many people might think that the one thing that Thais do well (perhaps the only talent they have outside of an abiding and all-pervasive incompetence), is to delude themselves, which they do at every conceivable opportunity.
It is well know that need for “face” and self-esteem among Thais is among the most pitiable in the world: what is less well-known but indisputably true, is that the magnitude of this need derives from what is actually a very poor self-esteem which needs constant bolstering and re-inforcement. In this respect as in others, they are just like 9-year-old children in more developed countries with more developed societies and more developed cultures. This, and the need for self-abasement and prostration are of course, linked at a very deep psychological level.
The delusion continues with this awful Vongthip woman projecting her own needs and beliefs on the Thai populace as a whole, in averring that the puppet prime minister is putting the country’s needs before all else, when he is doing no such thing at all. What the almost completely talentless though privileged man is actually doing is exactly what the military, Prem and the Palace put him there to do – which is to look after their interests and bollocks to Thailand and bollocks to the needs of the Thai people.
I for one think HMK is a good man, and watching the TV programs of the birthday celebrations theater, I was struck with a single thought, which is that he must be tired and demoralized and completely fed up with the (…) which is perpetrated in his name.
This is the only way a sane and good-minded person could possibly feel.
“Voter Education” is a very loaded expression. If Khun Vongthip had limited herself to education alone, I daresay few could disagree with her – the standard of education in Thailand from the bottom up to first and second degree level being generally poor. But this is really just a silly side-swipe at the supposed common sense of those who hold views opposed to her own. I live in rural Thailand and my clear impression is that, whatever the level of their own formal education, the vast majority have all the necessary educational attributes to participate in a functioning democracy; that is to say that they can tell the difference between right and wrong and they generally have a clear idea of where their best interests lie.
KK: How about Obama’s inauguration for example? (Though, some may argue the IQ part. Not that I agree, of course.)
This reads like it was issued by the state. Painful. I really don’t see how it fits with the rest of the usually excellent content of the blog.
@Jon:
And of course it is. It’s the official line being mindlessly parroted by someone whom the government and the others know they can rely on to mindlessly parrot.
It is part of the weaponry of propaganda to propagandize those whom the Thai culture has made unintelligent and unquestioning.
@Rich, indeed, question is how & why did it get published on AB?
(BD: Thanks for raising this again Jon. As said earlier on to understand the arguments of the questionable side you have to know that side’s arguments. I get often accused publishing biased, unbalanced information … Let’s have and show the generous mind that can digest such petty reasoning and deal with it. But for this you cannot ignore their lines of thought.)
Jon hi.
Well, fwiw I appreciate the opportunity to debate different views. If BD was partisan, this opportunity for growth would disappear, as it has done on ThaiVisa.
I think AB does a good job of presenting issues objectively. God forbid it should ever become the same or a mirror-image of ThaiVisa, that would be just awful.
@Dan @Rich
Absolutely agree re 2 sides to the story and objectivity is essential to a healthy discussion.
That said my original point, which I still believe, is that the presentation of The Alternative Argument is somewhat “parroted” (to reuse the expression).
I do note the disclaimer following the letter though.