The Vongthip Letter Feb 08

Get your monthly dose of Thai insights.

Here is Khun Vongthip Chumpani’s newsletter for February ‘08.

Read Khun Vongthip’s “ode to Thaksin”, learn about the problematic Year of the Rat and our not less problematic new “Kitchen Cabinet”.

By Vongthip Chumpani*

Kung Hei Fat Choi! Happy Chinese New Year to you and your loved ones! May the year of the Rat be kind and bring you happiness, good health, peace and prosperity. Alas, according to astrologer Master Lynn Yap, 2008 was an “inauspicious” Rat Year. The world’s economies would be weak. Unemployment, money and environment matters would be the key issues. There would be plenty of natural disasters and diseases in the world. Global stock markets would have bumpy rides. 2008 however would be an excellent year for those with the wood, good for water and earth, average for fire and metal elements. One way or another, we shall all be needing a lot of luck this year.

The shock wave

As soon as the election results were known, jubilant PPP’s core leaders tried hard to put together their coalition parties, without much involvement from “Nai Samak”. Flights to Hong Kong however were full of Thai politicians and MP’s going for their face-to-face meetings with “Nai Yai” at the Hong Kong Marco Polo Hotel, after which many proceeded to Macau before returning to Hong Kong again for shopping sprees.

On 7/1/08, Khunying Pojaman Shinawatra flew back to Bangkok, with the usual publicity fanfares. On 8/1/08, she went to two courts to hear the charges and was released on a THB 3 million bail. On 15/1/08, the government unceremoniously closed down TITV and set up TPBC-Public Broadcasting Service Channel, a la BBC. On 20/1/08, Banharn announced that Chart Thai Party was joining the PPP coalition government to break the political stalemate.

On 21/1/08, HRH the Crown Prince, representing HM the King, opened the parliament. On 22/1/08 PPP’s campaign director, Yongyuth Tiyapairat, was elected (307:167) as Speaker of the House and de facto head of Thailand’s Legislative Branch! The Democrats were left as the sole opposition party. Quietly, the CNS dissolved itself and the Surayud Government said their goodbyes and vacated the Government House.

The incredible

In spite of the loud moaning and groaning from some 12 million dismayed voters, Samak Sundaravej (72) “nominee leader” of the PPP Party, was elected (310:163) as Thailand’s 25th (and oldest ever) Prime Minister on 28/1/08. On 29/1/08 the Election Commission endorsed the election results for all 480 candidates, some of whom however would continue to be investigated for election frauds. Intelligent voters were finding it almost impossible to stomach the nomination.

Although Samak has been in politics for over 40 years, serving as cabinet minister and Bangkok governor, the number of his admirers had more or less disappeared. People knew that he loved cats and cooking; that he was bold and sharp-tongued as a politician, a columnist, and a talk-show host; that he was aggressive and abusive, especially with journalists; that he was involved in a number of serious corruption and slander cases. They certainly did not expect an ultra-rightist like him to team up with the PPP ultra-leftists (that he fought so fiercely against before) to become the “nominee” PM for Thaksin.

Puppets on strings

After 16 months of weak and futile struggle with political reforms, Thailand was officially back on the internationally recognized “democratic track”. Voters found themselves back in pretty much the same political situation as on 19/9/07. Many were depressed by the turn of events and the appointment of Thaksin’s top “personal warrior”, Yongyuth Tiyapairat, as the Speaker of the House and de facto chief of Thailand’s Legislative Branch.

As a freshly elected MP from Chiang Rai, Yongyuth was still being investigated by the Election Committee for major election frauds that could end up in the dissolution of the PPP Party!

Adding insult to injury, the majority of the ministers, nominated by the six coalition parties (9:1 ratio), were either those who had fought tooth and nail for Thaksin or were “nominees” of the 111 banned TRT’s executives. Intelligent voters did not know whether to laugh or to cry when a doctor and a nurse were named Minister and Deputy Minister of Finance! Thaksin’s personal advocate was made Minister of Foreign Affairs and his PR service provider, Minister of Commerce!

Clearly Thaksin was rewarding his friends rather than putting the right men on the right jobs. Many believed the Samak government would have to disappear as soon as the 111 “captives” were pardoned, the Constitution was amended and the court cases cleared for Thaksin to return as Thailand’s 26th or 27th PM.

Your cheating heart

Much to Thaksin’s chagrin, as soon as Samak had the premiership in his pocket, he began to exercise his independence. Unceremoniously, he made a dozen changes in the cabinet line-up, keeping Ministry of Defense for himself (with the blessing of the now-friendly military), and making sure that the THB 0.5 trillion mega-projects came directly under his two trusted “lieutenants”.

PM Samak also announced that he intended to remain in office for at least 4 – if not 8 – years, and, that he would not amend the Constitution until three months before his term ended. In their desperation, pragmatic voters took an abrupt U-turn and began to pin their hopes on PM Samak, praising him for being his own man and a man of his word.

They were hoping (against hope?) that PM Samak could miraculously turn out to be Thailand’s Truman – a leader who could bring about the much needed unity (among the pro-Thaksinists, the anti-Thaksinists and the Neutralists) and guide the country out of the current political stalemate and economic dilemma. How PM Samak could achieve this with his “Kitchen Cabinet” and whether “Nai Yai” could wait out the 4 – let alone 8 – years, that was of course another story.

The shadow play

Disappointed to end up again in the opposition, the Democrat Party was quick to announce their own Shadow Cabinet to track Samak’s cabinet’s movements on 1:1 basis. They have learned from their own and former PM Surayud’s shortcomings and were making sure that they could match PPP’s PR machine every step of the way. To better prepare themselves for any sudden change in future circumstances, Abhisit & Co. would have to show to the public day-in and day-out that their high-caliber shadow-ministers could be just as quick and effective as the Samak administration.

They would have to work closely with NGOs and other peoples’ organizations – particularly the newly planned People’s Council. The Opposition should also provide exchange information with the people, understand their problems and proposals, and act as their voices in the Parliament.

Dream on

The anti-Thaksinists, who did not expect Thaksin to return to power again so soon, were more than disturbed by the post-election scenario. To “celebrate” their second anniversary on 4/2/08, former PAD leaders (who had gone on their separate ways after the 19/9/07 Coup) gathered to reminisce over their past glory, assess the current political dilemma, and plan their next moves.

They agreed that their acts of civil disobedience had not been in vain. Thaksin & Co had to “get out” as well as “get away” in a hurry. The TRT Party was dissolved and their 111 executives banned politically for 5 years. A number of corruption cases have been officially filed against Thaksin & Co. The best thing to come out from the long drawn-out crisis was that millions of citizens have woken up politically and have become much more aware of their civic duties and watchful of their constitutional rights. The Constitution too has been amended to prevent future authoritarian government, political plunders and bureaucratic abuses, giving more power to the people.

The watchdogs

Based on the experience of the past two years, most people have come to realize that they could no longer afford to leave the politicians and the bureaucrats to run the country at their own will, without any participation and monitoring by other stakeholders in the society. Hard working taxpayers would like to make sure that their hard-earned money was not being squandered away for future votes or as +30% “rents” by corrupt politicians and nonchalant bureaucrats. To do this, the civic sector planned to build up their own organizations, made up of people with common stakes and interests.

They hoped to co-ordinate more closely with other interest groups to form the People’s Council and become a pressure group that no government could ignore. They planned to exercise their power separately and/or jointly, in line with an old Isaan proverb that “Large schools of tiny fish could individually and jointly attack a big crocodile again and again until the creature ended up leaving the water to hide out elsewhere”.

* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.




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February 7, 2008 | Filed Under Business & Economics, Politics, Property & Investment, The Vongthip Letters 

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