The Vongthip Letter Jul 08

Trying to make sense of it all? Lost in the labyrinths of Thai society and politics? Here’s Khun Vongthip Chumpani with her monthly newsletter.

Is it really “Preah Vihear for Koh Kong”? Should you pity Thaksin’s jailed three lawyers? And is there “a revolution in the making?”

Khun Vongthip’s opiniated facts make for some great read again this month.

8 minutes of applause

When their term ended on 30/6/08, the 10 members of the AEC (Assets Examination Commission) made their historical farewell before handed over their work to the Anti-Corruption Commission. Thousands of ardent admirers flocked the event to pay homage to their heroes.

In the last 21 months, these highly respected judges, legal and tax experts have been working day and night, against all odds, to gather evidences on some 20 cases against former PM Thaksin and his family, so that they could be properly submitted for trial by the Supreme Court for Politicians.

The AEC’s last hurdle was overcome when the Charter Court ruled 9:0 on 29/6/08 that the last 9 month extension of AEC was legal and in line with the Constitution. As the result, the Samak government’s attempt to nullify the AEC, by amending Article 309 of the 2550 Constitution, would no longer be relevant.

Preah Vihear for Koh Kong!

Through out 7/08, Thai society was haunted once again by the heartbreaking Preah Vihear case that the World Court ruled against Thailand in 1962. This time, the man who opened the old wound was none other than Noppadon Pattama, our very own Minister of Foreign Affairs!

Although there were rumors that Cambodia was planning to unilaterally apply to list Preah Vihear Temple as World Heritage, the public was shocked and dismayed to learn on 18/6/08 that Samak Cabinet has given the green light for Noppadon to sign a joint-communiqué, confirming Thailand’s “active support” to Cambodia’s application to UNESCO.

All hell broke lose when a Cambodian minister was reported to admit that negotiation over the disputed territory around Preah Vihear was undertaken simultaneously with the ludicrous concessions to be granted to Thaksin to set up an entertainment and casino complex on Koh Kong, as well as to operate the huge oil and gas deposits in the Thai-Cambodian disputed waters in the Gulf of Thailand!

How could they?

As more and more details came into light, the PAD moved quickly to ask the Administrative Court for an injunction against Noppadon’s joint-communiqué. The Opposition Party and 77 Senators too joined in by issuing letters of protest to UNESCO. The Chief of Thailand Chapter of the World Heritage flew to Quebec to inform the committee of 21 nations about the Thai court’s injunction and to ask for the delay in UNESCO’s decision. All however seemed to be too little, too late.

The Opposition Party went on to file a case against both the Samak Cabinet and Noppadon for taking the liberty of giving away a piece of Thai territory and sovereignty without any public hearing or the necessary approval of the parliament. According to Articles 190, 119 and 120 of the Constitution, this was equivalent to treason and the highest penalty would be life imprisonment or death!

Jailhouse rock

On 25/6/08, Thaksin’s 3 lawyers were caught red-handed when they gave THB 2 million cash in a snack box to a couple of court officials to share. The Supreme Court summarily sentenced the trio to 6 months jail for misconduct and handed the case over to the police to also file criminal charge for bribery.

Thaksin promptly issued a statement denying any involvement in the alleged offense and proceeded to appoint a new team of lawyers to take over the Ratchada land case, due for hearing by the Supreme Court for Politicians on 8/7/08. In the mean time, his request to travel for business abroad was also denied by the court.

At long last, the wheel of justice has started to grind. Throughout 7/08, many landmark cases would be ruled by the various Thai courts and their legal outcome and consequences would drastically change Thailand’s political scenarios and their key actors in the next few months. Hopefully, the judiciary branch would be providing Thailand with the much needed checks and balances that both the legislative and the executive branches have failed to deliver so far.

Come rain or shine

Through out 6/08, the PAD continued their 24 hours/day and 7 days/week protest non-stop, fired mostly by a series of Samak Government’s own political and economic blunders. Now in their 40 odd days, the PAD has attracted tens of thousand of new participants from all over the country, with a number of contingents showing up also from abroad. The country’s 43 most powerful unions have also joined in, with their promise of a national strike if push came to shove for PAD.

On 20/6/08, the PAD decided to march from Makawan Bridge, through heavy police barricades, to set up camp around the Government House, to call for PM Samak’s resignation. The besieged PM sought refuge at the Ministry of Defense and somehow managed to come to an understanding with the military brasses, who preferred Samak to other hardliner Thaksin’s nominee. To buy time, PM Samak agreed to withdraw his bid to amend the 2550 Constitution.

He also consented to no-confidence debates - by the Senate on 23-24/6/08 and by the Opposition on 25-27/6/08. The FY 08-09 budget debate (THB 1.83 trillion) was moved to 28-29/6/08. The PAD, disappointed by the military’s “secret accord” with PM Samak and discouraged by the miserable results of the no-confidence vote, continued their increasingly bitter and aggressive protests.

No accountability

After 41.5 hours of well orchestrated and highly revealing censure by Abhisit and his Opposition Party, government MP’s turned up in full force to vote nonchalantly for PM Samak and his 7 ministers, as prompted by their party bosses. Once more, the incredible and unrealistic majority win (280 vs 162) was a slap-in-the-face for those who took the no-confidence debate seriously. Alas, the horse-trading that went on behind-the-scene, did make a mockery of what true democracy was meant to be.

Once the budget debate was out of the way, PM Samak announced there would be no cabinet reshuffle after all. He then went off on state-visits to China and Brunei, accompanied as usual by General Anupong, the Army Chief. Once again, Thai parliamentarians have shown their true colors. When the chips were down, our dear MP’s would do anything and everything for their own political survival rather than for the good of their country.

Flip-flop policies

Meanwhile, the Samak government seemed to be powerless against the sky-rocketing oil and food prices. Their patch-worked policies seemed to create more confusion and damage than helping the miserable consumers with their cost-of-living problems. PPP’s efforts to give-away “goodies” to grassroots, government servants and even taxpayers, were considered too little and too late by the ungrateful recipients.

With soaring oil prices (USD146), increasingly weak Baht (THB 33-34) and threatening rise in monthly inflation rates (8.9% in 6/08), there were heated debates about the need to increase interest rates (by 0.50% before end 08) as oppose to the need to shore-up consumer confidence (lowest since 03).

Government’s investment in mega projects too seemed to have stalled while PPP factions and their coalition partners fought for their shares of the cake. Private investment remained sluggish and business sentiments sank to a five-year low.

Not quite so resilient

According to the IMF, however, the Thai economy has remained comparatively competitive in spite of the political problems. In 6/08, exports continued strong, up 22.1% in dollar term to USD 15.29 billion. Imports rose 15.7% to USD 14 billion. Trade surplus of USD 1.26 billion and current account surplus of USD 631 million were recorded. International reserve dipped slightly to USD 108.9 billion. GDP growth forecast for 08 would have to be revised down from 4.8%-6% as gasoline prices hit THB 44/liter.

Government’s plan to launch 2-tier pricing for LPG in 7/08 was scrapped at the 11th hour because of hoarding and acute shortage that angered pro-Thaksin taxi drivers. With equity bubbles bursting all over Asia, foreign funds have also started to move out in a big way. The SET more or less collapsed to around 740, with less than half of the normal daily business volume.

A revolution in the making

The political tuck-of-war that has been going on in the last few years has now evolved into a political revolution of a national scale. The split between the pro- and the anti-Thaksinists has widened and deepened to the extent that a bloody confrontation might just be the only way out. Like it or not, the PAD movement has managed to wake up the “sleeping giant.”

The people no longer trusted their politicians and would soon decide to take the matter into their own hands. Alas, the Thai society could no longer wish away the problems and, like it or not, would soon be dragged screaming into new political scenarios. Good luck to us all!

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