The Vongthip Letter Jun ’10

Bangkok burning: May was a most agonizing month for the people of Thailand. Hardcore red shirts moved ferociously to expand their territory further into Bangkok CBD. With the number of casualties increasing by the day from snipers and M79 grenades, the Abhisit government declared 17-21/5/10 as public holidays in Bangkok, during which Bangkokians stayed put, bracing themselves for further violence. In the early hours of 19/5/10, the army began their offensive manoeuvres to remove red shirt barricades around the Ratchaprasong area.

By early afternoon, the red shirt leaders announced an end to their demonstration and, before giving themselves up at the police headquarters, urged some 3,000 remaining protesters to go home in government’s prepared coaches. Hundreds of protesters, however, refused to leave. They went instead into the temple next door, Wat Pathum Wanaram, to spend the night. Throughout that afternoon and evening, hard core red shirts together with “men in black” were shooting and throwing M79 grenades at the soldiers.

They roamed the city and set fire to some 36 buildings all over Bangkok. That night, the red shirts also burned down the provincial city halls in Ubon, Udon and Khonkaen. Meanwhile, corporate Bangkok kept their cool as they calmly switched on their emergency systems and went on damage control modes. Meanwhile 43 countries issued their strongest warning against traveling to Thailand. The international community was stunned by the violence, unseen before in this “Land of Smiles.”

By Vongthip Chumpani*

Together we can! On 23/5/10 the Rajprasong area was finally cleared by the military and returned to BMA. Tens of thousands of young and old Bangkokians immediately put on their work gears, rolled up their sleeves and spent the whole Sunday cleaning up the streets and the sidewalks where the red shirts had camped out during their 70 day demonstration. On 24/5/10, Bangkok schools were opened, people went back to work and life returned to normal, except for the midnight curfew. To cheer people up, singers and artists came out in full force to write songs and stage concerts about peace and unity.

On Visakha Puja day (28/5/10), people flocked to temples all over the country to pray for peace and national reconciliation. The following weekends, Silom and nearby streets were turned into weekend markets for thousands of entrepreneurs who lost their shops and inventories in the inferno. Like New Yorkers after 9/11, Bangkokians have come to realize how precious their “City of Angels” was. People from all walks of life have joined hands with the government and BMA to revive Bangkok and put the country back on track again.

Collateral damages

It did not matter whether they were soldiers, red shirts, innocent bystanders, volunteer workers or journalists, the country mourned those 88 people who lost their lives and sympathized deeply with 1,885 people who were injured during the violent crashes. Total damage to properties, infrastructures and the economy was estimated to be as high as THB 150 billion. Most damaged were of course Thailand’s confidence, credibility and image in the global community.

In the last two months, most tourists have disappeared from the streets of Bangkok, many FDI investors were reported to have shifted their investment elsewhere, and foreign investors have sold over THB 50 billion of their portfolio holdings. A few foreign mass media too have been dragging Thailand through mud on account of their favorite theme i.e. military violently cracked down on peaceful demonstrators who were fighting for democracy and equality”. Over night, Thailand’s young and old generations have turned activists in the defense of their “king and country” in the cyber world. Even the powerful CNN was not spared!

Healing time

After the red shirts went home, the curfew was called off on 29/5/10 and PM Abhisit was able to reaffirm his legitimacy by sailing through the 2011 budget parliamentary debate on 24-26/5/10 and the no-confidence debate, called for by the Opposition, on 31/5-2/6/10. With the Lower House in recess until 8/10, PM Abhisit would have more time to focus on stabilizing the situation in and outside Bangkok, set up independent committees to investigate the violent incidents, bring the leaders (including Thaksin), instigators, financiers and operators of the terrifying insurgence to court, and restore confidence locally and abroad.

Now that a snap election has been ruled out, an immediate cabinet reshuffle was imminent. Efficient and effective implementation of short term rehabilitation programs and long term political and social reforms, particularly in contentious areas, would have to be carried out before election time. Mindful of the possibility of renewed conflicts, more people have pitched in to help direct and protect their country from greedy politicians and corrupt bureaucrats.

Down but not out

The on-going political turmoil has started to infect the remarkable economic growth of over 12% in 1Q10. In 4/10, industrial utilization went down to 62.3%. Exports slumped to USD 13,832 million and imports to USD 14,022 million, resulted in a trade deficit of USD 190 million. Current account balance also was USD 423 million in the red. However, balance of payments showed a USD 3,749 million surplus, including a net capital inflow of USD 2,999 million. International reserves went up slightly to USD 147.6 billion. Consumer price index was 3% and core inflation 0.5%. 1Q10 healthy unemployment rate of 1.3% (430,000) was expected to deteriorate in the aftermath of the political crisis.

With consumer confidence index at 9 months low, the Bank of Thailand decided to maintain Repo rate at 1.25%. Contrary to earlier fear, the SET ended the month at 750. The Baht weakened to THB 32.50 to USD/THB 40 Euro/THB 35.29 to Yen. Considering FY 2011 fiscal budget spending of THB 2.07 trillion together with government’s THB 100 billion rescue packages for victims of the 19/5/10 inferno, both the public and private sector believed GDP growth this year could still be maintained at around 3.5% to 4.5%.

Going forward

Being used now to expect the unexpected, the highly resilient Thai business community was able to scramble quickly back on their feet, albeit not without the usual heartaches, headaches and pains. This time around, the Abhisit government has been quick to provide a timely and comprehensive rescue packages to compensate and help those who were badly hit by the fiery demonstration. An economic take-off, however, would depend very much on our own still-unfinished political power struggle as well as the severity and spill-over of the EU’s sovereign debt problem.

With Thai tourism down on its knees, export would continue to be the country’s key engine for growth this year. Although events of the last two months have been damaging to Thailand’s credibility in the eye of the world, many of our foreign investors and friends have continued to stand unswervingly by us. Their knowledge, patience and understanding about our “family fights” have been most comforting and deeply appreciated.

Flying with doves and hawks

Although the dust has not quite settled, many people were moved to express their deep gratitude to PM Abhisit, for having brought the country back from the brink of anarchy and civil war, albeit not without a great deal of sweat, blood and tears. They have come to appreciate PM Abhisit’s quiet and unassuming leadership, wisdom, patience, endurance and personal sacrifices that were taken for granted by those who could not possibly imagine the magnitude and complexity of his heavy task.

During those dark days, the young PM had bravely walked through hellfire to keep Thailand on the democratic path while endeavoring to end the country’s most violent political uprising, with the least possible casualties and collateral damages, and without any military coup! To keep law and order and bring about reconciliation and healing, he had to battle against “enemies from within” and fight off panicky supporters as well as hawkish critiques. Under so much seen and unseen constraints, Thailand was indeed lucky to have PM Abhisit at the helm during the country’s worst ever political storm.

Professionalism vs. terrorism

Many friends of Thailand have quietly commended the Thai military for having led one of the most faultless peace keeping exercises we have ever seen on 19/5/10. Their strict adherence to international standards and procedures for riot control had gone a long way to end the escalating violence of the armed militants among the red shirts. The military did well also to team up with the government to brief the nation every step of the way about their mission and operations. This was both comforting and reassuring particularly to those who were petrified by the red shirts’ violence, unseen before in this country.

Notwithstanding some biased press reports, most people have come to appreciate the risks that both local and foreign journalists and cameramen took to bring instant news of what was going on to them. Last by not least, the people of Thailand could definitely pat themselves on the back for their own common sense, sensibility, restraint, tolerance, peace loving and forgiving nature, without which Thailand could have easily gone into a civil war mode.

Let us hope and pray that no more life would be cut down so brutally because of bitterness, anger and hatred that were fueled by the greed for power and money, not to mention the revengeful desire, of some sore political losers to destroy even their own motherland!

* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.