The Vongthip Letter Mar 08
Here we go again. Khun Vongthip’s monthly take, this time on the great purge in the kingdom, Thaksin’s shiny new Red Passport, “our other dear ministers” and the glimmer of hope called Rosana.
Khun Vongthip Chumpani of Bangkok Bank making sense of it all. Nevertheless, she predicts, this is it, the “year of investment.” Better fasten your seat belt. Maybe the year of the roller coaster is ahead.
Because “a snap election could be called to give the TRT/PPP a landslide victory that would result in a one-party rule under Thaksin’s complete control once again.” Here we go:
By Vongthip Chumpani*
PPP’s purge: Soon after the house-debate (17-19/3/08) on PPP’s policy, Samak Cabinet began in earnest to replace key government officials (appointed by the Surayud Government) with their own men. The Chief of DSI (Sunai Manomai-udom) was the first to go. Followed by the Chief of Public Relations Department (Pramote Rathavinij), the Secretary General of the Food and Drug Administration (Dr. Siriwat Tiptaradol), and the Chief of Police (Pol. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavej).
Waiting in the line to be “guillotined” were rumored to be the permanent secretaries of all the grade-A ministries i.e. Defense, Interior, Justice, Transportation, Health, Foreign Affairs as well as the Army Chief, the Governor of the Bank of Thailand. Thai ambassadors in London, Bruxelles, Washington DC and Oslo were replaced while more were expected to follow. Directorships of key government enterprises would soon be farmed out to former TRT executives.
Star performers
The Minister of Interior, rumored to be Thailand’s 26th PM-in-line, vowed to welcome Thaksin back in Thailand with maximum security. He announced that he would soon launch another “war on drugs”. The Human Rights Watch said this would “accidentally” kill thousands of innocent victims as well as local activists and vote-canvassers?!. To carry out PPP’s unofficial agenda, the Minister has been spending “quality time” with each and every governor of Thailand’s 76 provinces. The minister also came out to strongly advocate the setting up of casinos and the reintroduction of lotto.
Not to be out-done, the Minister of Foreign Affairs promptly issued the “Red Passport” for Thaksin and began to remove all the “unkind” ambassadors. Mindful of the all-important PR machines, the vivacious Minister of PM Office first tried to reclaim Thai PBC and then to set up a new TV station before deciding to “modernize” Channel 11 instead. All government’s radio waves were pulled back and farmed out to “friendly”operators. Cable TV channels, particularly ASTV, were told to toe the government’s line or face “extinction”.
Our other dear ministers
The Minister of Health triggered a new political storm when he unceremoniously terminated Thailand’s move to impose CL on vital life-saving drugs. Hemmed in by rising inflation (6.3% in 1/08) and strong THB, the Minister of Commerce, battling hard against all odds, fainted while giving a speech on “The future of Thailand”!
With the help of an army of financial gurus and advisers, the Minister of Finance was able to move quickly against the deteriorating external factors to revive domestic economy and revitalize investment with generous tax incentives and huge subsidized loan schemes from government financial institutions. So far, however, the Minister of Education and First DPM, has not announced any exciting schemes to upgrade Thailand’s dismal educational system, except perhaps to pump in more student loans and forgive their NPL’s.
Veni, vidi, vici?
After many false starts and amid great fanfares befitting the return of a popular head-of-state, Thaksin finally arrived back in Bangkok on 28/2/08 at 9.39 hr. together with his son and some 40 lieutenants who flew to meet him in Hong Kong. The story-board of Thaksin’s tear-jerking arrival was carried out in minute details not only to “wow” his starry-eyed followers (including most key cabinet ministers) but also to flaunt his popularity for the benefit of those who voted for PPP!
The dramatic return attracted an army of local and foreign mass media reporters. Many wondered out loud that Thaksin could create more PR impacts in one day than what CNS and the Surayud Government could generate in their 16 months in power! Throughout the day, Thailand’s official PM kept a low profile away from the press, holding a hush-hush meeting with key military figures.
One country, two PMs?
Most political analysts believed Thaksin’s return to Thailand earlier-than-expected was prompted by PM Samak’s faster-than-expected independent moves that could be detrimental to Thaksin’s court cases and his leadership of the PPP. Thaksin was worried also about the escalating internal power struggles that could break the PPP. As the result, local and foreign businessmen have become quite confused by this unprecedented situation.
They just did not know whether to approach Thaksin or PM Samak for discussion, negotiation and decision on mega projects, government procurement deals, and international trade and investment issues. Meanwhile PM Samak seemed to be walking on a tight rope, trying to keep his cool when dealing with all the pressure groups. His leadership would continue to be further tested when decisions were to be made on the THB 2 trillion mega projects and on the impending military reshuffle, scheduled to take place in 4/08 instead of 10/08.
The good judges
On 2/3/08 the Election Commission voted (3-1-1) to give a “red card” to Yongyuth Tiyapairat, the Honorable House Speaker. While the ruling was being deliberated by the Constitutional Court, defiant Yongyuth had to step aside for the Deputy House Speaker to take his seat in the House.
Once again, disheartened voters were encouraged and assured that Thailand’s Judicial Branch has indeed managed to maintain their independence and integrity under the prevailing political storm. Hopefully, the Administrative Court too would be ready, willing and able to assist the good and honest bureaucrats who have been unfairly treated by their new political bosses.
The new Senate
During the last week of 2/08, the Senate Selection Committee announced their nomination of 74 senators chosen from the hundreds of names submitted by the various sectors of the society. However, the turnout on 2/3/08 to elect the remaining 76 senators was disappointingly small. Many of those who turned up did not have a clue about the candidates. In Bangkok only 40% of the voters turned up.
There was a glimmer of hope when Rosana Tositrakul, a highly respected independent NGO candidate, won a landslide victory with the highest number of votes (750,000) in the country. Clearly, Bangkok voters were sending a clear signal that they wanted a stronger and more transparent check-and- balance between the legislative and the executive branch.
Money talk
After the long anticipated removal of the 30% reserve requirement on 3/3/08, Governor Tarisa announced that Bank of Thailand would not hesitate to introduce one or more foreign exchange measures to prevent speculations against the Baht, as and when necessary. The indicative interest rate was maintained at 3.25%.
Contrary to expectation, foreign investors did not pour their money back into the Thai market. The SET blipped to 850 before leveling down to 820, in line with the weak regional markets. THB strengthened to THB 31.60, up 6.4% from THB 33.70 on 31/12/07. Oil prices tested a new high at USD 105. Gold broke USD 950, a 27 years record high.
Year of investment
During his hide-out in Bangkok, Thaksin gave a “personal” interview to the Financial Times, blaming the CNS and the Surayud Government for destroying the Thai economy and making it most difficult for the PPP government to shore-up the economy and restore foreign investors’ confidence. Considering the country’s economic fundamental figures, and, the very heavy tolls of political stress and strain that the Thai society has had to go through during the last couple of years, many thought Thailand has not done too badly at all.
On the contrary, people in-the-know have become increasingly more concerned about Samak Government’s successive announcements of huge investment and spending schemes e.g. THB 2 trillion for mega projects to be completed in three years, the THB 40 billion tax cuts, not to mention more “sexy” schemes to be announced soon to cater to the grassroots.
High hopes
Since his return to Thailand, Thaksin’s marketing wizardry has been “wowing” his admirers and spooking his opponents. Most political analysts believed Thaksin planned to remain the mover and shaker of Thai politics for decades to come. For now, however, he would have to wait until all the legal hurdles have been cleared, the 2550 Constitution amended, and the 111 banned TRT executives freed.
Once the grassroots voters have become happy again with the generous flows of PPP’s “populist” schemes, a snap election could then be called to give the TRT/PPP a landslide victory that would result in a one-party rule under Thaksin’s complete control once again.
* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.