The Vongthip Letter Mar ‘10

Beyond reasonable doubts: Thaksin’s “Judgment Day” has become another unforgettable event in the Thai political history. After weeks of being second guessed by academics and political pundits, nine judges of the Supreme Court spent almost eight hours reading their historical verdict which was broadcasted nationwide.

Thaksin was found guilty on all five cases for hiding his family shareholdings behind onshore and offshore nominees during his premiership, for conflict of interest, for abusing his power as head of the government, and for becoming unusually rich as the result of ruthless changes in policies, laws and regulations to benefit his family businesses.

The court ruled that the excess amount of THB 46 billion (out of THB 76 billion that had been frozen since 2006) was to be confiscated by the state. The remaining THB 30 billion would be returned after deduction of related income taxes, fines and other charges due.

By Vongthip Chumpani*

Sore losers! In the weeks before and after the “Judgment Day” on 26/2/10, there were an avalanche of abusive threats and a series of sinister warnings against PM Abhisit, key cabinet ministers, judges and their family members. Grenades were thrown at bank premises and a blacklist of 53 prominent people, who have spoken openly against the Thaksin regime, was made public.

Meanwhile, the majority of Thai citizens could not help feeling disturbed, harassed, threatened or even frightened by the daily verbal attacks from the pro-Thaksin camp. Many have started to call on the government to launch a nationwide campaign to clarify the court’s ruling in simple language so that it could be easily understood by gullible rural folks who planned to join the red shirts massive demonstration in Bangkok from 12-14/3/10.

The rule of law

While the red shirts were trooping all over the country in preparation for their one-million-protesters D-Day, the Abhisit government went ahead with the necessary steps to move the confiscated THB 46 billion into the state’s coffer. Related actions have also been taken by various government entities and the anti-Thaksin groups to bring civil and criminal charges against those who were involved in the five cases that had purportedly caused some THB 100 billion of damage to the state.

Meanwhile PM Abhisit continued to walk the tight rope, trying to keep the public cool and calm while making sure national security would not be compromised in the worst case scenario. In his weekly Sunday TV program, PM Abhisit held impromptu Q&A sessions with TV anchors and radio news commentators on current state of affairs, trying to reach out to both the mass media and the public to help the government promote peace and prevent violence.

“Guilty”

While Thaksin & Co. were lamenting the loss of his fortune, hundreds of thousands of people were feeling quietly vindicated and thankful that their stubborn efforts and long endurance had not been in vain. For two solid years they had demonstrated bravely and selflessly against all odds to get rid of Thaksin’s parliamentary dictatorship and his corrupt regime. These honest-to-goodness citizens had come out day after day to march, to stand, to sit and even to sleep on the streets in the scorching sun and pouring rain, against deadly teargas and hails of M79 grenades.

They therefore could not help but relish every moment of the eight hours that the Supreme Court took to spell out Thaksin’s dubious crimes in minute legal details before pronouncing him guilty of policy corruption and for creating unusual wealth at the expense of national interest. It was however somewhat of a let-down for them when only half of the THB 76 billion was confiscated. They believed that the actual damage caused by Thaksin to the country has been far greater than could be expressed in any monetary term.

More disturbing news

During the first week of 2/10, fully armed PM Hun Sen of Cambodia created quite a stir when he made a high profiled visit to Khao Phra Viharn where he was courteously welcomed by a Thai military contingent. At the border, he gave another abusive speech against the Thai PM, after he was asked to unarm if he wished to also visit Viharn Muentaprom on the Thai territory. When the GT200 bomb detector scandal broke, PM Abhisit gave a strong warning against their faulty and ineffective use, much to the embarrassment of the Thai military who stood firm about using this highly questionable (and expensive) instrument in the deep south.

Another scandal was triggered by a retired deputy secretary general when he spoke publicly about the blatant (and pricy) sale of appointment to key positions in the ministry of interior. This is very much along the same line as at the police department, where the appointment of their chief has yet to materialize! Meanwhile a rumor that the ministry of commerce would be dumping 2 million tons of rice from their stock pile, has sent rice prices tumbling, causing an unexpected and most untimely protest against PM Abhisit’s rice insurance program

Struggling to move ahead

Fortunately for the government, the economy was turning increasingly more positive, with tax collections well above the target. The cost of living and housing subsidy programs were scaled down or stopped to reflect the positive change in circumstances. The cabinet also approved the new master plan for mass transit systems, with two additional lines (pink and orange) and an extension of the airport link to Don Mueang Airport.

From now on, the Abhisit government would have to track the farm sector more closely again now that the hot season has arrived earlier than normal, with soaring temperatures and fast dwindling water supply especially in the northeast where even the mighty Mekong River seemed to be running dry. Mindful of the importance of FDI to carry on the economic growth momentum, PM Abhisit inaugurated the “One Start, One Stop” service center, set up specifically to assist foreign investors and facilitate their dealings with the Thai bureaucratic system.

More beautiful figures

In 1/10, private investment grew yoy for the eight consecutive months. Industrial capacity utilization was at 68%. Export increased by 31% yoy to USD 31.6 billion. Import shot up 50% yoy to USD 31.0 billion. Trade balance, current account balance and balance of payments were all in the black at USD 591 million, USD 1,997 million and USD 4, 966 million respectively. International reserves increased to USD 142.4 billion.

Consumer price index was 4.1% with core inflation of 0.5%. Unemployment went down to 0.9%. Improved consumer confidence fueled further private consumption. Bank lending grew 3% yoy, with interest rates remaining unchanged. The THB ended the month on a strong uptrend at THB 33.04/USD. The SET closed at 721 in spite of the on-going political problems.

It’s the economy, stupid!

In 2/10 the Thai economy has once again proved to be resilient and much stronger than expected. The actual figures of 4Q09 GDP (+5.7%) and for the whole of 09 (-2.3%) were most welcomed news. Business confidence index was also up in 1/10, as the legal impasse at Maptaphut has made some headway. This year, tourist arrivals were expected to reach 15.5 million.

Thailand’s GDP rate has been revised upward to 4.5% and as high as 5%-6% by the IMF and some international banks. Foreign capital inflow has been steady. Foreign investors seemed to have got used to Thailand’s political bickering and could now understand that the country needed more time to clean up the political mess because of the people’s fatalistic attitude, compromising nature and non-confrontation culture.

Let it be known

Most people believed the verdict of 26/2/10 would go down in history as an important milestone on Thailand’s long and rough road towards full democracy and the rule of law. This historical case did not only punish the former prime minister but also send out a strong message that the people of Thailand have wised up to those sinister political crimes and that they would no longer tolerate corrupt practices among politicians and government officials.

Most academics and political pundits have come to accept the fact that events of the last few years have changed the dynamics of this country forever. The Thai society would have to make further sacrifices in order to narrow the disparity between the haves and the have-nots, between the urban and the rural population. The government would have to be truly and sincerely mindful of the needs, expectations and aspirations of the majority of the voters.

Politicians and bureaucrats could no longer collude blatantly to take the country for a ride while enriching themselves from their dark and dubious schemes. Most believed Thailand still has a long way to go before we could restore the kind of peace and harmony that we have taken for granted in the last six decades!

* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.





Sphere: Related Content

Related posts on absolutelyBangkok.com:

  1. The Vongthip Letter Sep 09
  2. The Vongthip Letter Dec 09
  3. The Vongthip Letter Feb ‘10
  4. The Vongthip Letter Aug 09
  5. The Vongthip Letter Oct 09
  6. The Vongthip Letter Jun ‘10
  7. The Vongthip Letter May ‘10

March 5, 2010 | Filed Under Business & Economics, Politics, Property & Investment, The Vongthip Letters 

Comments

7 Responses to “The Vongthip Letter Mar ‘10”

  1. stefan on March 5th, 2010 7:30 pm

    Who is doing the punishing?

    “This historical case did not only punish the former prime minister but also send out a strong message that the people of Thailand have wised up to those sinister political crimes and that they would no longer tolerate corrupt practices among politicians and government officials.”

    We know which factions of elites were threatened, and we know now what happens to dissenters while the “punishers” are still in power.

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  2. Ordinary reader on March 5th, 2010 9:58 pm

    “Rule of law”? Yes, only for Thaksin and his ilk. But don’t mention it to your friends the PAD. They are above the law. It sounds she just repeated what Panitan said at the FCCT the other night, namely rule of law!

    BTW, I am surprised she did not mention the siege of BBL main office in Silom Road the other day and subsequent bombings. Perhaps she pretends she does not see the rowdy red shirts?

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  3. Jaded on March 5th, 2010 11:25 pm

    Thanks for publishing another fine example of the monumental self-delusion afflicting the establishment take on contemporary Thailand. I really doubt the sincerity of this piece. Can she really be this disengaged from reality?

    “… peace and harmony that we have taken for granted in the last six decades …”

    She should consider a second career in stand-up.

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  4. UsedToBeBlue on March 5th, 2010 11:53 pm

    “For two solid years they had demonstrated bravely and selflessly against all odds to get rid of Thaksin’s parliamentary dictatorship and his corrupt regime. These honest-to-goodness citizens had come out day after day to march, to stand, to sit and even to sleep on the streets in the scorching sun and pouring rain, against deadly teargas and hails of M79 grenades.”

    I think I’m going to be sick. AB, why does this shit even get air time? I thought you were a blogger with integrity.

    (BD: We’ve been there why we publish the letters. Look for older discussions, the majority of readers wants to understand the other side as well.)

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  5. Bangkok Tour Operator on March 6th, 2010 6:08 am

    Banana republic political tactics.

    Rob the guy that was previously in office and trash him in the local press. Condemn the international press for stating the truth.

    Block websites and arrest anybody that says anything about the yellow team leader.

    Don’t hold elections and let the military spend the country blind.

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  6. Steve on March 7th, 2010 1:13 pm

    “Meanwhile PM Abhisit continued to walk the tight rope, trying to keep the public cool and calm while making sure national security would not be compromised in the worst case scenario. In his weekly Sunday TV program, PM Abhisit held impromptu Q&A sessions with TV anchors and radio news commentators on current state of affairs, trying to reach out to both the mass media and the public to help the government promote peace and prevent violence.”

    Hmmmm … “cool and calm,” “promote peace”? Rather ignores the fact that his personal spokesmen and Suthep and numerous other ministers spent all of January and half of February cranking up the fear message daily … As usual with Abhisit, he does the silk-tongued version while others beat the drum for him.

    “When the GT200 bomb detector scandal broke, PM Abhisit gave a strong warning against their faulty and ineffective use, much to the embarrassment of the Thai military who stood firm about using this highly questionable (and expensive) instrument in the deep south.”

    Looked at another (arguably more logical) way, just how embarrassed could the Thai military be when they actually chose to spend three hours en masse defending the GT200 at a televised press conference. Certainly embarrassing that they used a slide of the nVidia GT200 computer graphics chip in the proceedings, but what was the whole event if not a full-on rebuff to the PM?

    “This historical case did not only punish the former prime minister but also send out a strong message that the people of Thailand have wised up to those sinister political crimes and that they would no longer tolerate corrupt practices among politicians and government officials.”

    An attractive notion. So perhaps the good representatives of “the people of Thailand” will shortly be turning their attention to the current crop of “corrupt practices among politicians”? ( http://siamreport.blogspot.com/2010/03/conflict-of-interest-selective-scrutiny.html ). Oh, but that’s BJT – lynch-pin to this government’s survival … and thus doesn’t appear on this lady’s radar.

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  7. Ian on March 9th, 2010 10:40 am

    This says it all:

    “For two solid years they had demonstrated bravely and selflessly against all odds to get rid of Thaksin’s parliamentary dictatorship.”

    No interest in democracy – no interest in the plights of the less fortunate – and some say this is a Buddhist country – far from it (at least at the top).

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