The Vongthip Letter May 09
Abhisit’s nightmares: If anyone in Thailand would wish away the ugly political events of 4/09, it would be the prime minister himself. Barely three months in the office, PM Abhisit had to go through the worst imaginable political crisis. On 7/4/09, he was ambushed and his car bashed by a crowd of “angry” Red Shirts in Pattaya.
From 8-10/4/09, he tried in vain to rationalize and localize the Red Shirts’ riot as they marched to block and occupy the Victory Monument area, causing the worst ever traffic jams in the inner city and paralyzing five hospitals with thousands of out-patients in the vicinity. Then on 11/4/09, the unruly Red Shirt army moved to demonstrate against the government in Pattaya where 16 heads of state were gathering for the Asean Plus 3 and Plus 6 Meeting.
When the police could not (or would not?!) control the angry crowd as they surged into the meeting hall, PM Abhisit had no choice but to humbly apologize and cancel the meeting. To safeguard the state visitors and their entourages, PM Abhisit declared a state of emergency in Pattaya as he saw them off at the Utapao Airport.
By Vongthip Chumpani*
The Pattaya debacle was a shocking experience also for the 16 heads of state. Never before had a belligerent crowd of protesters been so near and so threatening to so many heads of state! Suddenly Thailand was on “breaking news” of all international TV and global mass media. The humiliation and embarrassment felt by PM Abhisit was shared by all Thais and left them in a deep shock never before experienced.
For PM Abhisit, the nightmare continued when he returned to Bangkok to fight, not only for his premiership but also for his own life, against the Red Shirts and their “Dear Leader” who were out to remove him at any cost. Meanwhile, the public watched the harrowing political scenarios unfolding on their local and international TV screens.
They saw how alone and isolated their PM was and how he could barely escape being bashed to pieces by the angry Red Shirt rioters in the compound of the Ministry of Interior, where he went on TV to declare a state of emergency in and around Bangkok, in the afternoon of 12/4/09. That night, as the Red Shirts went on shooting rampant, killing two and wounding a number of innocent people in the Nanglerng market, rumor of a coup was flying thick and fast.
Right over might
To everyone’s relief during the early hours of Songkran Day on 13/4/09, PM Abhisit appeared on television together with all the military chiefs to confirm that he was in full command and that unarmed military forces would be used to disperse the violent demonstration. He then urged the rioters to cease their belligerent acts and disperse peacefully or face being arrested and prosecuted.
Throughout the day, the public as well as global viewers of CNN, BBC, Aljaseerah etc. were able to witness the young PM’s calm and rational leadership as he tried to defuse the political time-bomb while fending off twisted accusations from Thaksin who was trying desperately to justify the “people uprising against Abhisit’s military dictatorship”.
In spite of the many touch-and-go moments, there was no death casualty when the unarmed military force finally closed in to arrest the Red Shirts’ 3 core leaders and to send the rioters home on government buses in the afternoon of 14/4/09. PM Abhisit has won the battle as well as the hearts of those who sat through the crisis with him.
Down but not out
Before Songkran, Thaksin was flying here and there and everywhere in his USD 1.5 billion private jet, from where he phoned-in or video linked to “inspire” the Red Shirt rioters to fight their “war for democracy” even unto death. He even promised to appear (from Koh Chang on 12/4/09?) to lead them in the final march to topple the government when the army fired their first shot into the crowd!
Meanwhile, Thaksin continued to give scathing interviews to all key international mass media, making contradicting remarks as he struggled to portray himself and his Red Shirt followers as peaceful defenders of democracy. His credibility was ruined when shown against what was actually happening on the scene in Bangkok.
Following the confiscation of his Thai passport, the collapse of the Red Shirts and the Thai government’s move to extradite him from Hong Kong, UAE and Nigaragua, Thaksin went underground, vowing to continue his fight at any cost. Nobody could of course believe otherwise!
What a (wonderful) world!
On 17/4/09 Sondhi Limthongkul, one of PAD’s key leaders, was ambushed and gunned down on his way to ASTV studio for his early morning news hour. Miraculously Sonthi survived the hail of some 100 heavy bullets, albeit with a near-fatal head wound. Among the many theories put forward was Sondhi’s own version i.e. the assassination was staged by a “new power” group to take advantage of the political upheavals to unseat PM Abhisit!
Fearful of further political violence, PM Abhisit did his best to move the conflicts back into the parliamentary system. Joint-house debate took place on 22-23/4/09 for the Opposition to air their grievances (mostly on behalf of the Red Shirts), for the government to respond to all the accusations, and for the Senate to give their advice on how to resolve the political impasse.
As the result, two committees were set up: one to investigate the Red Shirts’ claim of death casualties during the riot and another to seek political reconciliation through reviewing and amending the 2550 Constitution.
The political pause would give the Abhisit government time to address the more hard pressed economic and social problems that were being aggravated by the political upheaval and the new 2009 flu (A H1N1) pandemic that was spreading far and wide from Mexico.
More bad new on the economic front
The Bank of Thailand estimated that the Thai economy in 1Q09 would be contracting 5 – 6% from the same period of last year due to decline in export and weak domestic demand. In the first three months of 09, tourist arrivals were down 15%. Although in 3/09 manufacturing slumped 15.4%, industrial capacity utilization was up to 61.7%.
Private investment continued weak. Car sale was down another 44.4% while import of capital goods was minus 18%. Consumer price index was at minus 0.2% and core inflation was 1.5%. Exports went down 22.7% to USD 11.43 billion. Import down 35.1% to USD 9.263 billion. However, trade balance, current account balance and balance of payments were all in the black i.e. USD 2,165 million, USD 2, 404 million and USD 1,831 million respectively.
The SET ended the month on stronger note at 491. In line with other Asian currencies, the Baht was firm at THB 35.23 to USD 1, THB 35.72 to Yen 100, THB 46.71 to Euro and THB 52.2 to Sterling. Gold price softened to USD 890. Oil prices ended the month at around USD 50.
Scrapping the bottom
Like other major countries in the world, government’s spending has become the growth locomotive this year. With the initial stimulus schemes now on track, albeit with some teething problems, the Abhisit cabinet revised their second stimulus package (to spur the economy and create 1.5 – 2 million jobs up until 2012) down to THB 1.43 trillion (from THB 1.56 trillion).
As tax collection continued to plunge below target (down THB 250 billion), the government had to sweep back all unused midyear budgets and excess funds from state enterprises. To make up for the shortfalls, “sin taxes” on beer, liquors, cigarettes and excise tax on diesel oil were being jacked up. The FY 2010 budget too was slashed by THB 200 billion, to THB 1.7 trillion. All ministries were asked to cut their budgets across the board by 7 – 11%.
Notwithstanding all the measures, the government would have to borrow THB 400 billion from the still-liquid domestic market this year, THB 200 billion for public investment and THB 200 billion to ensure liquidity in the budget flow. With another THB 400 billion borrowing requirement in the next fiscal year, Thailand’s public debts would increase to 58 – 61% of GDP by 2012 from the current 40%.
Politically bankrupt?
During the Songkran upheaval, most Thais were left feeling helpless and hopeless as they watched the nasty scenes being unfolded on their television screens. When it was all over, their frustration has turned to anger, not only at the power-that-be but also at themselves, for failing to do anything about the political mess that has been haunting the Thai society in the last three years!
Many people have come to realize that they could no longer maintain their “golden silence”. Seminars and roundtable meetings were held to discuss the society’s “great divide.” Informal groups have come together to seek ways and means to communicate and educate naïve and gullible voters about democracy and human rights.
Some 20 civic associations have joined forces to issue a manifesto calling to all concerned to stop hurting Thailand. Many skeptical people, however, were predicting further violence, and even bloodshed, as politicians were getting ready for a general election probably by early next year!
* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.