The Vongthip Letter May ’10
Long live HM the King: On 5/5/2010, all warring factions in Thailand called for a truce to take time out to celebrate (in their own way) the 60th anniversary of HM the king’s coronation. Once again HM’s loyal subjects were seen shedding tears of joy as they sat watching their beloved king on TV. Their get-well wishes, prayers and merit makings for HM have indeed borne fruits. HM appeared healthy and strong again during the traditional ceremony to mark the historical occasion at the Grand Palace.
No matter how much people fought with one another, they could never forget HM’s plea for national unity whenever he appeared live on TV. Once again, the people’s faith and pride in their national heritage were restored, and national unity and reconciliation seemed to be back within their grasp! Most Thais bowed their heads to thanked heavens for giving them a loving, selfless and wise king who has always put his country above all else.
Another bloody April: Thailand’s messy political unrest was back on world’s TV screens again this April. When the red shirt failed to show up for the third round of negotiation on 8/4/10, PM Abhisit cancelled his trips to Vietnam (Asean Summit Meeting) and to Washington D.C. (world’s first nuclear summit meeting). A state of emergency was declared in the red shirt zones in Bangkok to contain the ballooning red shirt demonstration. On 9/4 more red shirts joined the protest after the government shut down their PTV. Soldiers guarding Thaicom transmitting station were attacked, disarmed and sent away by scores of ferocious red shirts.
By Vongthip Chumpani*
The next day, all hell broke loose when hundreds of soldiers, armed only with anti riot equipments, were sent in to “claim” Phan Fa back from the demonstrators. Although the two sides were supposed to be unarmed, grenades and deadly war weapons were used by armed “men in black,” seen moving stealthily among the red shirts. A well known senior army commanding officer and a Japanese Reuter reporter were among 25 people killed and 900 wounded in the melee. All Songkran celebrations were cancelled. On 14/4, the red shirts decided to move their base from Phan Fah to Rajprasong.
As the result, all 5-stars hotels, shopping malls and condominiums in the area were shut down. Scores of countries stepped up their travel advisory to warn their citizens against traveling to Thailand. Overnight, tourist arrivals slumped and Bangkok’s average hotel occupancy shrank to 8%. Financial damage to the tourist industry, estimated to be in tens of billion, was not greater than the loss of international confidence in the country. Concerned foreign investors took turn to warn Thailand against further violence and disregard for law and order. Negotiation was the best way out.
Multi-colors fighting back
During the second half of 4/10, Bangkok citizens could no long stand by and watch. Several informal civic groups started to demonstrate daily against the red shirt movement, their demand for parliament dissolution, their violence and their total disregard of basic human rights of Bangkokians. On 16/4, some 300 policemen tried in vain to arrest four red shirts leaders whose dramatic escape from their hotel rooms was seen real-time on TV screens! Buoyed by their easy “victories,” the red shirts moved to expand their barricaded “territory” into Silom Road on 19/4.
Suddenly thousands of soldiers and policemen appeared to take up their defensive positions in the area. That evening a Silom resident was killed and some 80 people were wounded when grenades were thrown into the commuter crowds in the Saladaeng area. On 22/4 there was another violent skirmish on the highway around Anusornsathan. One soldier was killed and scores were wounded, again by the “men in black.”
The last straw came on 28/4 when hardcore red shirts forced their way into Chulalongkorn Red Cross Hospital, supposedly in search for soldiers hiding in there! The next day, hundreds of in-patients were moved out and the hospital was shut down. The unconventional and violent behaviors of the red shirts were condemned by the government, the public, human rights NGOs in and outside the country. Overnight the red shirts’ credibility evaporated.
The red army
In April, people in Thailand were repeatedly shocked beyond belief by the depth and the extent of aggression, violence and bitterness of the red shirt leaders and their foot soldiers. Many have come to believe that while most Thais were hoping and praying for a peaceful national reconciliation, the Thaksinists were actually working full time to overthrow the old regime (amataya) and replace it with their own regime (ratthaimai).
To topple their opponents, the red shirts, Puea Thai party, and their contingent of “men in black” have been simultaneously employed to create and co-ordinate the on-going political conflicts and chaos in and outside the parliament. The red shirt movement was setup to systematically indoctrinate and instigate both the rural and the urban poor to fight against the “amataya” government and military, supported by their own communication channels ranging from PTV, newspapers, magazines, books, pamphlets, DVDs, Facebook etc.
The whole operation was liberally funded and supported by Thaksin, his family, friends and associates in and outside the government. With so much at stake, many people believed peace and unity could not possibly return to this country without drastic reformation.
The beginning of a downtrend?
Notwithstanding the loss in tourism industry (estimated to total some THB 7.5 billion in 3/10 and 4/10 because of the political unrest), the Thai economy as a whole continued to show remarkable performance in 3/10. Private consumption index rose by 8.7% yoy while private investment index jumped 18.2%, a 10-month high. There was however a marked decline in consumer and business confidence that could dampen 2Q10. Export was the major growth engine, rising 14% yoy in 3/10 to USD 16.9 billion. Imports rose by 62% yoy to USD 15 billion, with gains recorded across the board for consumer and capital goods as well as raw materials.
Manufacturing index increased by 32.6% yoy, driven by higher production of electronics, automobiles and electrical appliances. Trade balance, current account balance and balance of payments remained in the black at USD 1,090 million, USD 1,734 million and USD 3,137 million respectively. International reserves rose to USD 144.1 billion. Capital inflows totaled USD 2.5 billion, including FDI worth USD 700 million and USD 535 million in equity portfolio investment. The SET closed at 763 at the end of 4/10. The Baht remained firm against the Euro but steady at THB 32.33 to USD.
Interest rates were left unchanged across the board. GDP growth rate, however, was expected to plunge some 2% from the recently forecast of 4.3%-5.8%, if the red shirt protest were to continue until year-end! With so much doom-and-gloom reports on Greece and Portugal, Thai businessmen have started to put on their safety belts as world economy seemed to be heading for another rough ride.
Abhisit’s roadmap
On 3/5/10, PM Abhisit’s sprang a surprise on his friends and foes alike when he announced his roadmap for national reconciliation. Like a light at the end of the tunnel, the proposal was warmly welcomed not only by the majority of the Thais but also by foreign investors and friends of Thailand abroad. They believed PM Abhisit took this bold step solely for the benefit of country i.e. to avoid further violence and bloodshed that could easily escalate into anarchy and civil war. If agreed and accepted by all concerned, the red shirts will have to disperse immediately.
The Thai society, including the mass media, will then join hands to move the country forward, to protect the monarchy, and, to ensure social justice (by offering greater opportunities to the less privileged). To ensure truth and justice, an independent committee will be set up to investigate the April crashes that resulted in deaths and injuries. The parliamentarians will work together to set up rules and regulations for political demonstrations as well as to propose constitutional amendments. There will of course be no amnesty for those with criminal charges. As expected, many of PM Abhisit’s fervent supporters came out to oppose the roadmap.
They could not understand why the PM has to bow to the demand of the red shirts, whose 9 core leaders have been charged with acts of terrorism and violation of the emergency decree. Most saw no justification for parliament to be dissolved during the second half of 9/10 and for an election to be scheduled for 14/11/10. Many were worried that there would be an unprecedented use of money and violence to contest and win the next election. Others were simply fearful of the return of the Thaksin regime.
Enough is enough!
At a time like this, most Thai citizens believed they would have to keep their cool, put their own egos and self interest aside, stop blaming one another, refrain from bashing the government for failing to get the country out of this political mess and/or for not taking the course of actions they believed to be the best. Many people, however, would have to learn to base their political opinions and decisions on proven facts, rather than on here-says, biased instigations, unfounded rumors and false accusations – all of which have gone to create and intensify the current state of political confusion and social chaos.
Politicians too would have to curb their greed and their urge to take political advantage at the expense of national peace, unity and prosperity. There should be no more “water melon” military, “tomato” police and “strawberry” media! With national and internal security now at stake, law enforcement would have to be prompt, unbiased and effective. Unless all this were to happen, Thailand could be in for a civil war or become a failed state before too long!
* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.
I started to go through this and cut and paste the most egregious false statements in the comments. There were so many lies (I am speaking of statements of “fact” not matters of opinion) that I gave up after a few paragraphs. The scary thing about this is we are seeing the sanctioned and official version of Thai history in the process of its production. Reading this sort of thing makes me realize that it’s not surprising that most Thai people have such a poor knowledge of the long history of political repression and authoritarian government here. When the people who are in a position to know better and offer informed analysis are partisan to the point of disregarding the truth in order to perpetuate a few useful myths where can a Thai person go to find the truth? The degree to which the political debate has been dumbed down is surely a reflection of the sort of “pragmatic” approach to reality that is personified by your commentator today and The Nation newspaper most days.
At a certain point all credibility is lost with the very people that this vapid commentary is supposed to convince. On the popular level I suspect that the officially sanctioned media is now in the process of losing the sympathy of its core audience. Those outlets not financially supported by the military or other parts of the government are having serious difficulties making money and this lack of interest in their attempts to dumb down the situation is telling. With a large segment of the population now alienated, no matter how overwhelming the official media approved story is, the only people who are now being lulled into apathy are the unapologetic supporters of this reactionary version of what they see as the status quo.
I see this this lady as engaging in an embarrassingly public act of intellectual masturbation which may give her and her devotees some pleasure. It’s difficult to see how it will attract any new admirers.
But thinking about it I believe that my metaphor is ill chosen. A more apt analogy would be the role of the prostitution in farang frequented bars. Of course not all farang go to bars and not all farang end up marrying Thais with a bargirl past. But there is no doubt that a large number of expats are seduced over to the dark side and sooner or later they inevitably discover the emptiness and unreality of bar people. This woman offers similar sort of inducements with her attempts to stimulate her audience. And like in the sub-culture of the bars, the self-delusion of the punter is what sustains the illusion. Her distortions of reality are a little like the widely available cosmetic enhancements that feature prominently with Thai bargirls and ladyboys. The problem for their potential customers is that on some level they always know it’s been bought and paid for … and therefore even if the punter is attracted, they always know that they can never really feel secure.
In both the bar and in Vongthip’s strange world, fantasy can only be sustained by ignoring reality and preventing any kind of critical thinking …
Regarding the issue with “credibility,” I was just about to forget that you defended the red hospital invasion as not only morally correct. But just because you know how to write doesn’t mean you know what you write.
“With a large segment of the population now alienated” … You are saying the country is unifying behind the reds. Oh dear.
Don’t know what planet you’re living on, but just the thought that the officially sanctioned media may speak with the voice of not the minority must be terrifying to you. It has been said again and again, journalists under Thaksin were less free. Period. Full stop. End of discussion.
BTW, even Bangkok Pundit has some constructive words for The Nation, at least for a latest work by Tulsathit.
What is wrong with all you haters. You think good honest hard-working people are braindead just because they’re not running around with guns in the name of liberty? Oh dear, you’re way too emotional Jaded. And I’m terrified of your anti-status quo. Go sleep it off, your ideological hangover.
I like to read your thoughts, your elaborate style of writing is a pleasure. Sadly you’re outing yourself as completely out of touch with what’s going on.
What me? Hater? Ouch … Hey, as it happens I have an hour on my hands while I wait I can type …
1. Unless my comment isn’t there any more Dan can link this. But as I recall it now, when challenged on whether I supported the reds going into Chula, I actually said that I abhor the militarization of hospitals. Of course, when people are shooting grenades out of the windows of hospitals things can get out of hand. Knowing the repuation of Chula hospital staff, and being aware that the hospital was already being pinpointed as the likely location of the grenadiers, I could see then, and with lots of new evidence available I certainly see now, why the red invasion was provoked. That doesn’t imply that I condoned it nor indeed does it imply that I condone the demonstration itself (which I see as a massive and premeditated provocation on the part of the red leaders to create another famous Thai massacre). But I do have a lot of sympathy for the socially excluded in Thailand and recognise that the reds have a real point when they talk about Priviledge and Ammart.
2. I suppose I could just quote the statements of representatives of the government including the PM as my sources for the comment that a large segment of the population is alienated. But again saying this doesn’t mean to imply that the country is unifying behind the reds. I don’t actually see how you could draw a conclusion like that unless you were living on the other side of the planet the Vongthip is on.
3. I think the government does take the potential of the red argument seriously though. The computer crimes act, emergency controls and even the CRES summons for Facebook comments are some of the evidence that I would refer you to in support of this assertion. But the authorities have a problem. The red press seems to be well distributed and it doesn’t take much looking to find plenty of examples of Red literature despite 7-11 censorship of military men and their views.
While it’s relatively easy to censor the airwaves, and you can use scare tactics and the computer crimes act to censor the net, the old fashioned print media is very hard to control, particularly in Thailand where there are more printers than I would have imagined. (As a one-time local newspaper editor, and under Thaky too, I was quite astonished when I first arrived to discover the scale and variety of the print media in Thailand.) It’s not going to easy to stop the reds writing up their side and, whereas you can debate the validity of my comments here, it’s more difficult to rebut magazines. I would also say “newspapers” but one interesting aspect of newspaper publishing in Thailand is the manner in which a newspaper licence is awarded. Let’s just say that it’s unlikely that a newspaper unsympathetic to the government would be licenced, regardless of the government … Moreover the owners of newspapers face exhaustive checks (including by the intelligence services I was informed) and a convoluted process of official approval that involves representatives from ministeries who would normally not be thought to have much interest in the news business. Losing your newspaper licence is also possible with all the concomitant possibilities for encouraging self-censorship that this implies. Little wonder then that the sensible way to run a newspaper business is with accumulated losses. The closure of a title would then hit hard at certain business interests who normally have to be catered to by the authorities. But I digress. The point is that so long as the censorship does not get too heavy handed and so far (based on past performances in Thailand) it’s being done with a reasonably delicate touch, albeit with some embarrassing use of the lèse majesté law to gag otherwise irreproachable sources like Prachatai (still in Dan’s blogroll I see). The foreign press, often over simplifying, under malign influences or simply misinformed are much harder to control but you can see that isn’t stopping people trying …
4. In any case all the endless talk of unity by the government is possibly an indication that a large section of the country is already quite alienated along with an even larger element of the population. I am not just talking about the reds. Have the events in the south escaped your attention?
5. My own personal explanation for the vitriolic tone of my first comment is as follows.
I just got back from a business trip to Singapore today actually and, as the afternoon was really rather warm I decided to stay in and catch up. I saw something. A special police truck, windows blacked out, drove into the temple grounds accross the street. Inside the grounds are a number of white ambulance minivans. About twenty minutes later several ambulance minivans drove out of the temple led by a police pick up truck and disappeared down the street heading in the direction of the demonstration. I don’t know what is going on the temple or why the police vehicles and the ambulances are stationed there. But this is something new to this street and this temple and given what else is happening in this capital my ire was aroused. I confess that feeling of pure anger and disgust probably animated my response to the letter and its writer.
6. As someone who wrote in newspapers under Thaksin I was thoroughly intimidated. There are indexes out there of press freedom. I don’t normally take any notice of them but if they are remotely objective and simply quantifying legal events I suspect that Thailand must be getting worse not better. But whatever these indexes may be said to indicate its going to hard to argue against your comments as you don’t seem to be willing to entertain that is might be possible to hold a different view.
When I first came to Thailand, a friend and now foreign-based colleague asked me why I bothered writing at all when I didn’t have a hope of telling the real story. I explained how important real information is in a country like this and how I had developed several strategies to get what information I could into print. He remarked, and I have to admit he was right, that I sounded quite pitiful (then and now). But you are mistaken if you think Thaksin represented anything other than the interests of various parts of that kleptocracy that continues to rule its various fiefdoms in Thailand today. The English newspapers in particular now have absolutely pitiful records when it comes to telling the story here. Often Thai newspaper will carry stories well-researched into scandals that never reach the English local press. That’s not because people can’t read Thai … Censorship, largely self-censorship is the fundamental principle of the English-language press of Thailand. This is a lesson I quickly learned. If you threaten anyone’s ricebowl you are playing with fire …
Ironically, that’s the sad truth about both the red and yellow shirt leadership. They won’t threaten anyone’s ricebowl if their own is treated with respect. The basis for a reasonable compromise is simply to share out the rice a little bit more generously.
7. It’s been entertaining writing this and responding to your criticism. I now see it’s 7.55 pm and time to go. And thanks Dan for letting me blog a bit inside your blog!
Jaded, guess you have too much time.
Sad right? I was stuck waiting around on Friday night with nothing much to do … Note to self. Find more productive ways to express myself … I probably should be on Facebook or something instead of unburdening to Dan’s unsuspecting readers.
(BD: You’re doing great here!)
I just noticed that I could not access many Thai political web/blog sites at this very instant … more particularly those sites that are sympathetic to the reds.
Stupidity has definitely consumed PM Abhisit’s government … What a bunch of censorious morons.
Well said that woman! As a first step, stop reading The Nation.