The Vongthip Letter Nov 09

Long live our king! Since HM the king has checked into the hospital some six weeks ago, his loyal have been worried sick about the state of his health until they saw him healthy and smiling again as he made two impromptu tours of the hospital on his wheelchair on 23/10/09 and again on 2/11/09. In the last 45 days, some 900,000 people have gone to the hospital to present their flowers and sign the get-well books. Prayers have also been offered all over the country for his speedy recovery.

When malicious rumors about HM’s health started to make their rounds in mid 10/09, the people were furious. They could perhaps understand why foreign investors would be so concerned about the succession issue but that any Thais would dream of exploiting such a sensitive situation was beyond their comprehension. For decades, Thai people have always had complete faith and trust in HM the king’s wisdom and foresight to do whatever necessary to protect and preserve the monarchy, which has been the “soul of our nation” in the last 700 years.

Tugs of war: In 10/09, PM Abhisit continued with his political balancing act. As head of the government, he could not afford to be emotional. Faced with daily vicious criticism and dubious attacks from former friends (who overestimated him) and foes (who underestimated him), out to discredit his government, PM Abhisit has been able to keep his cool and exercise self-restraint as he tried to defuse the political “time bombs” one by one. PM Abhisit’s most difficult task has been to balance the interests and benefits of the various groups of people as he tried to introduce long overdue changes in the country’s economic and social structures and systems.

By Vongthip Chumpani*

While the Thai middle class have recently discovered their constitutional rights and were exercising them to the full, many of the Thai elites and politicians have still to come to terms with the inevitable changes. Caught in the middle, PM Abhisit has been resorting to “the rule of law” as the way out. This was easier said than done because, until recently, law enforcement in Thailand had been discriminatory against ordinary citizens while favoring those with money and power.

More hot potatoes

In 10/09 the issues that threatened the Abhisit administration’s credibility were the two weeks railway strike in the south; the highly offensive rumors of HM the King’s health that triggered panic selling in the Thai stock market on 14-15/10/09; the controversial amendment of the constitution; the current low crop prices; the Mabtaphut environmental controversy. The Thai Khemkaeng schemes have also been delayed and/or stalled by bureaucracy, red tapes and corruption scandals.

The loud noises made by these contentious issues have drown out other good programs that were introduced by the Abhisit government to ease economic woes of the poor and the weak members of the society e.g. national pension fund for some 24 million poor people not formally employed; loan scheme for SME’s; refinancing of unorganized-market loan schemes for the urban and rural poor; restructuring of student loans; community land title deeds for cooperatives; farm price insurance and support schemes etc.

Asean centrality

After months of careful and meticulous preparations, the 15th Asean Summit, Asean Plus 3 and Plus 6 finally took place in Cha-am/Huahin from 23-25/10/09. Notwithstanding the highly embarrassing and undiplomatic behavior of Thaksin’s friend from Cambodia, PM Abhisit was able to carry out his role as a perfect host of the event. He has also managed to restore the regional leaders’ confidence in Thailand that was badly shattered during the 14th Asean Summit in 4/09 in Pattaya.

This time around, the 16 leaders got on with the business at hand and accomplished much of their mission to move forward together to enhance and realize the Asean Economic Community in 2015. The big question was of course how to win the hearts and minds of the Asean people to subscribe to the Asean concepts and appreciate their shared heritage and benefits! After the final Asean-U.S. Summit meeting to be held in Singapore after the Apec summit in 11/09, Thailand’s Asean chairmanship would go to Vietnam in 2010.

More pantomimes

In 10/09 the red shirts seemed to have scaled down their activities after General Chavalit’s appointment as chairman of Phue Thai Party. With him came some 50 recently retired generals and bureaucrats as well as a handful of film stars. Upon his return from a trip to Cambodia, Gen Chavalit announced that PM Hun Sen was Thaksin’s “eternal friend” who would gladly accommodate his fugitive friend in Cambodia. Upon his arrival in Bangkok for the Asean Summit, PM Hun Sen confirmed he would make Thaksin his advisor and would reject any extradition request from the Thai government!

The statement was an insult not only for PM Abhisit but also for the Thai courts. Mindful of the devious plot to unseat him at all costs, PM Abhisit calmly asked PM Hun Sen to reconsider his stand and did what he could to cool down the situation, much to the disappointment of his own naïve admirers. Ignoring the public outcry, dear Gen. Chavalit insisted on making similar trips to the Deep South, Malaysia, Vietnam and Burma in 11/09. Meanwhile, the red shirts have threatened another all-out demonstration in 11-12/09 to pressure PM Abhisit to dissolve the parliament and call for a fresh election. Disgusted with such shameless gutter politics, many people have started to compare the current situation to the treacherous deeds that resulted in the fall of Ayudhya!

Ready for the showdown?

In 10/09 government and coalition parties were busy “managing” their allocated government spending projects. The Bangkok 4,000 NGV buses program was finally approved, albeit with stricter conditions. The impending THB 1 trillion railway restructuring and modernization projects over the next 20 years, triggered a bitter struggle between the SRT union and their management. The sudden return of the notorious financial wizard, Rakesh Saksena, on 30/10/09 (after 13 years of extradition legal battle in Canada) was like a “ghost risen from the past” for some of the Bhumjaithai party bosses.

Although PM Abhisit has promised strict non-interference by the government in this high profiled case, political pundits believed the trial would give Democrat Party more clouts in dealing with their powerful coalition partners. Meanwhile, the opposition parties have been gearing up their campaigns to win the hearts and minds of grassroots voters with their new networks of TV, community radios, twitters, newspapers, magazines, political schools, seminars and concerts.

The art of possibility

In 10/09 the PAD’s New Politics Party has started to flex their muscles. They organized and/or supported demonstrations against PM Hun Sen’s “insulting behavior” at the Cambodian Embassy, the 5 days protest march of the environmentalists from Mabtaphut, the 2 weeks railway strike by the SRT unionists. The PAD has also stepped up their criticism of PM Abhisit, accusing him of weak leadership and failure to rein in corruption among his cabinet members. Many political pundits found NPP’s party leader’s speeches to be increasingly more like those of Thaksin in his early days.

Intelligent voters however knew that lofty ideals were fine until they were put to practice. Overnight changes, good as they might be, could prove to be just as destructive as no change at all. What most people wanted now was a stable government with continuity so that they could get on with their lives. In spite of all his constraints, PM Abhisit has proved to be a dedicated, intelligent, hard working, competent and democratic prime minister so why not give him more time and stronger support to help him move the country forward instead.

Stronger economy

The 9/09 figures have improved from previous month. Industrial output rose 0.4% for the first time in 11 months as electronics and automotive companies received more orders. Industrial capacity utilization moved up to 65%. Private consumption remained stable, with sales of automobiles up a hefty 20.6% and import of consumer goods up 0.7%. Consumer price index was -1% and core inflation -0.1%. Export yoy was down 8.3% to USD 14. 74 billion. Import yoy went down 18.2% to USD 12. 70 billion.

Balance of trade, current account and balance of payments were all in the black at USD 2.04 billion, USD 1.25 billion and USD 326 million respectively. GDP for 3Q09 shrank by 3.1. Interest rates remained unchanged. The SET showed a strong surge, peaking at 758 on 12/10/09 only to plunge steeply to 670 on 14/10/09 because of unfounded rumors. Having barely made it over 700, the SET was again hit by a global market correction and stronger USD, to end the month at 685.

The Baht was at THB 34.40 against USD, THB 36.40 against Yen, THB 49.56 against Euro and THB 55.24 against Sterling. Gold hit another record high of USD 1,050. Oil prices surged to USD 80 before tumbling to end the month at USD 77. Further recovery could be expected in 4Q09, unless political situation were to turn for the worse.

* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.

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Comments

21 Responses to “The Vongthip Letter Nov 09”

Rich on November 5th, 2009 6.07 pm

When malicious rumors about HM’s health started to make their rounds in mid 10/09, the people were furious.

This is an hysterical generalization. Which people were furious? When and where? Where is the evidence that the rumors were malicious and not brought about by the severe inconsistency and incompetence in the royal household bulletins? Whom is Vongthip trying to impress? The readers of this column or someone from the palace she thinks might be watching? It’s an embarrassment and it does AB no credit to publish this tripe.

Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Why? On the basis of most of the what I have read, Vongthip is scarcely well equipped to advise schoolchildren, though this is Thailand of course, so we shouldn’t expect too much.
BangkokDan on November 5th, 2009 7.24 pm

Reading Vongthip helps you better understand a considerable part of the Thai population, and especially how many of the Thai elite view Thai politics.

If I do agree or not with Vongthip is not the question. The question is how to argue and deal with such views.

I try to offer a balanced, not one-sided approach here at absolutely Bangkok.com

Truth is Vongthip speaks for the current Thai leadership. It would be misleading to suppress that view in this blog.

BangkokDan
Rich on November 6th, 2009 8.16 am

Hey Dan,

It is also misleading of her to suggest (as she did), that “The people were furious.” Nobody I have spoken to was furious in the least, and I probably speak with more street-level Thais than she does. Most in fact agree with the proposition that Thais are fed a diet of misinformation where these subjects are concerned, and most are beginning to resent the government for its hysterical responses to the slightest piece of bad news.

Perhaps a heath warning to the effect that she is a mouthpiece for the government might be helpful.

I like and respect AB, but if it continues to be a part of the Thai propaganda machine then I may have to forgo the pleasure of reading the many useful contributions here on the basis that the many are contaminated and brought into disrepute by a few. Of course I am only 1 reader among many …

Rich
BangkokDan on November 6th, 2009 8.41 am

Appreciate your words, you certainly raise important points. I maybe wrongfully assumed that most regular readers “know” Vongthip’s affiliation. Her economic takes are helpful, but this latest letter clearly shows again in what world the Thai haves live.

I don’t want to stop publishing her, maybe a clearer disclaimer will have to do.

Being at it, what do others think?

I think publishing Khun Vongthip here doesn’t diminish the credibility of aB.com, but then again, not everyone is distinguishing between real satire and accidental satire.

BangkokDan
Chris on November 6th, 2009 1.01 pm

I think there is a certain value to publishing the Vongthip riffs in that it is always surprising to realize what flimsy sand-like elements make up the Thai Democrat/PAD/etc. view. There is however a certain repetition of these elements each time she does a riff so I suppose you could say if you have read one of the riffs, you have read them all. But sometimes you forget and getting a periodic reminder can be useful …
Mithran on November 6th, 2009 2.49 pm

Dan, I think they’re useful as an insight into a certain kind of mindset. I don’t move in those circles, so I wouldn’t get to hear anyone like Vongthip otherwise.

Plus, they are weirdly compelling. It’s a bit like driving past the remains of a car crash, the glass and the blood and the bent metal. You don’t want to look but you can’t help yourself.
Leopold on November 7th, 2009 12.21 am

Didn’t you raise this once, Rich?

So, it’s the official viewpoint, big deal. I read AB because there is this diversity of opinions. Quite often, there are things I disagree with, but I just move on and accept that this is what I have to pay for living in a society.

I’m sorry that you have to bear with bs in life, but who doesn’t? But hey why listen to me? You people are getting more Thai, you know that “lets-have-it-my-way” mindset is certainly contagious.
Wrigley on November 7th, 2009 9.47 am

Just wanted to say the back and forth comments after her piece were well spoken unlike one gets elsewhere. I respect AB for wanting to present all the points of view even if you can bear reading the “official view” – an occassional reminder of who and what you are dealing with is instructive.
Jaded on November 7th, 2009 11.53 pm

The first time I read one of these pieces I thought they were in the same category as Dr. Saul. When I discovered that far from being a sly parody of a more reasonable conservative position, this actually was the articulation of a core belief in the existing status quo I was quite surprised.

As I have only really began to take an interest in the “murky” local politics recently, I still find the words spoken by mouthpieces of the entrenched defenders of privilege quite shocking . Prior to the coup I had assumed that the kind of comments that were being made by well gotten locals were, at least amongst the educated professionals, being made in a knowing, slightly tongue in cheek or “lets shock the farang” way. I just couldn’t believe that those with the education and experience to know better, no matter how self reinforcing the rhetoric of privilege was, would invest in the sort of self serving ideological justifications that used to inform the thinking of many pre-revolutionary European aristocracies …

I do think you need to gloss the letters or reference their authorship. If you don’t then there content is quite offensive. That said, I believe that these letters are a valuable reminder that many of the institutions and professions that would favor modernization and openness in a developed society are natural allies of reaction and repression in Thailand. When even international organizations and ostensibly change seeking NGO’s are subverted by the elitist loyalties and prejudices of their local Thai leadership the ugly truth about how Thai society really works begins to become very obvious … I talk to people every day who treat me with great respect and consideration while simultaneously engaging in brutal exploitative practices that would lead to jail terms in some countries but are considered completely normal here.

I appreciate seeing Vongthip views on a regular basis. It’s a valuable reminder to local white skinned people like me that the same people who wai me every morning would not move their little finger to help me if my skin were darker and my status a little lower.

I know that people will jump in and point out that many of the views expressed in these letters seem quite reasonable. Of course the rationalizations for the appropriation of power through military coup, court judgement and other tactics will have their apologists. But the rhetorical devices they might use will be fairly transparent I think. Its unapologetic rationalizations that serve the purpose of denying real change and social justice that I regard as much more pernicious. Vongthip seems to serve at the pleasure of those reactionary elements in Thai society who, if they cannot halt change completely, are determined to slow it down as much as possible and prevent the disestablishment of the recently instituted and manifestly incompetent and corrupt politics. These people tell you it’s all about efficiency, free markets and building bridges while supporting policies that maintain privileges, rig the market and result in the recalling of ambassadors. It’s a more sophisticated riff and it’s definitely worth listening to even if it is the Thai incarnation of newspeak …
Rich on November 8th, 2009 7.43 pm

Interesting comments all, and helpful.

I find this dreadful woman’s views obnoxious in the extreme, but I will defend to the death her right to be obnoxious, exploitative and stupid if that is what she wishes to be.

Cheers all … looming forward to reading more AB Dan …

Rich
StanG on November 9th, 2009 11.36 am

What exactly in that letter that is “obnoxious in the extreme” or “exploitative”?

I also don’t recall anyone being angry about the rumors but I don’t see how it would justify people’s outrage against her.

Maybe I should read her previous letters.
Mithran on November 9th, 2009 2.17 pm

BTW, is there anyone else who’s reading this hearing echoes of Enid Blyton?

“Notwithstanding the highly embarrassing and undiplomatic behavior of Thaksin’s friend from Cambodia, PM Abhisit was able to carry out his role as a perfect host of the event … Mindful of the devious plot to unseat him at all costs, PM Abhisit calmly asked PM Hun Sen to reconsider his stand …”

“… and after the nasty Cambodians had been put in their place, Abhisit and his friends went back to Pa Prem’s house for lashings of ginger beer.”
Rich on November 10th, 2009 8.07 am

Yes. This is one example of the delusional interpretation that these awful people put on things in the guise of intelligent journalism, it is one of the reasons I find her obsequious and simpering royalism so offensive.

For StanG. I regularly go to Isaan whee I have a number of Thai friends. They are all poor and for them, getting their next meal is often a problem, though not as much since Thaksin came as it was before. I help out where their wonderful government and those who are backing it do not.

So when someone like Vongthip, who presents as a sycophantic hi-so wannabe, starts spouting her delusional nonsense, which is so far at variance from my own observation of events, it makes me wonder what the future of Thailand really is. Our friend of Mithras is right, there is more than a touch of Toyland in this nonsense.

My advice to her and her ilk: stop simpering around the power elites and spend a week living like the Thai poor spend their entire lives. Then come back and see if you resent some Thais having nothing to eat while some others have ripped out huge fortunes. 37,000,000,000USD from exploiting those less fortunate is a national shame and gives a whole new dimension to the word hypocrisy.
StanG on November 10th, 2009 8.36 am

Rich, I’ve heard these arguments before.

But what exactly in this letter justifies so much abuse?
Rich on November 10th, 2009 9.27 am

@StanG

One man’s abuse is another man’s fair comment. If you think I am wrong then point out the error. On the other hand if you just don’t like it but can’t quite show where it is wrong, just ignore it.

The fact you have heard the arguments before and still can’t show where they are wrong suggests you should consider them more carefully. That’s why we have a neo-cortex.

Perhaps?
StanG on November 10th, 2009 11.09 am

Rich, I just want to know what is wrong with this particular letter from your existing point of view (which I’m not challenging, for now).

At this point I feel like I’m missing something, that I barged into the middle of a long war on Vongthip where what she says now is not important anymore and she is being crucified for some previous offenses.
MongerSEA on November 10th, 2009 12.16 pm

Chris, if you repeat the Big Lie often enough it begins to become the truth.
Rich on November 10th, 2009 4.33 pm

@StanG:

I have already said sufficient on this topic, there will be no more save adding that I resent people who lack even the intelligence to notice that what they believe is what has been pumped into their unquestioning brains since they were born.

I resent them even more than I resent farangs who should know better but somehow think they will impress Thais (or perhaps a few “special” Thais) by declaring their own idiotic love for someone without bothering to investigate facts rather than fiction.
All from me on this one.
David Johnson on November 16th, 2009 8.32 am

Khun Vongthip is in fact a distinguished businesswoman whose advice was highly appreciated by many foreign businessmen especially given her excellent English.I can also vouch that from a personal view point she was a kind and generous human being. Having said that she clearly does represent the particular perspective of the Sino-Thai urban upper middle class.
Rich on November 16th, 2009 12.38 pm

David, hi.

A perfectly splendid person she may be. I have never met her so I am no position to express an opinion. It is surely sad that being a wonderful human being is no guarantee against a person holding willfully uninformed views or possessing an obsequious and frankly stupid set of beliefs. There is enough information out there for any thinking person to determine that Thais have been treated like mushrooms for decades (by that I mean kept in the dark and fed a diet of bullshit), and to allow their belief systems to be guided by facts rather than propaganda.

To believe something just because you are told to believe it, and because it is more comfortable to believe it and conform than to it is to question and think for oneself, is frankly something that I would expect from 8-year-old children and not warm, caring, wonderful human beings.

I comment only on Vongthip’s beliefs as expressed, and hers, like all similar views, arise from a faith stance and a need to exist in some other dimension rather than arising from fact, but of course all people with reactionary beliefs express them as fact and not opinion. This is why the remarkably unintelligent Thai politicians can say (with apparent conviction) that ‘Thai people are offended’ when what they really mean is that they themselves are offended. Because they believe themselves to be important, they naturally assume that all Thais think as they do.

If all Thais did believe the same fictions though, then Thaksin would not have won landslide election victories, and people like Vongtip would not now be trying to do a King Canute.
Leopold on November 16th, 2009 12.59 pm

Rich, except the last paragraph (look at how his votes came down), I agree with most of your latest comment.

But, in regard to you, not Vongthip.

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