The Vongthip Letter Oct 09

For love of the King: On 20/9/09, the Thai society was shaken once again when our beloved king was hospitalized for lung infection. In two weeks, over 350,000 people visited the hospital to sign the get-well books. Millions all over the country, alone or in groups, have been offering their special prayers for his speedy recovery. The outpouring of concern and anxiety came not only from the people’s love and dedication for the king but also from the realization that HM’s health has become a reflection of the country’s well-being.

Having been a selfless, dedicated and hard working father of some 60 million Thai people in the last six decades, HM seemed to have taken upon himself the joy as well as the misery of his people. If the Thai society were distressed by the current political “divide”, how much, much more stressful it must have been for our king, whose basic teaching has always been to put the country before ourselves? Why could we not follow his footsteps and do whatever necessary to make him strong, healthy and happy again?

What a month! Through our 9/09 PM Abhisit seemed to be swimming against the tide. He spent days at the parliament trying to persuade and reassure the hard-to-please MP’s and the ever-suspicious senators to approve the SP2 and the 2010 budget bills. The appointment of high level government officials (to replace the retirees) has been like a marathon race. The most controversial (and embarrassing!) was of course the appointment of the new police chief that would please all concerned, especially the people who have long lost faith in this law enforcement institution.

By Vongthip Chumpani*

When he was brave enough to appoint an interim police chief of his choice, his highly influential secretary general walked out on him! To humor his political partners and keep his coalition government going, he had to agree to a joint parliament session to consider and agree on the highly controversial constitutional amendments. In a compromise, the MP’s and senators finally agreed to call a national referendum for voters to decide first whether or not to amend the 6 proposed articles. The whole process was expected to take nine months, after which it would be PM Abhisit’s prerogative whether or not to call for an election.

Flying Thailand’s flag

In spite of thick rumors of an impending “coup” to unseat him, PM Abhisit went ahead to attend the U.N. General Assembly in New York and to participate in the G20 Meeting in Pittsburgh. While he met and exchanged views on global and regional issues with other world’s leaders, he kept in contact with his cabinet via daily teleconference. He took the opportunity to assure American investors that Thailand was well on the road to recovery, politically and economically.

His speech on HM the king’s Sufficiency philosophy at the UN and his lecture on Thailand’s “vibrant” democracy (as guest of Prof. Joseph Stieglitz) at the Columbia University, were both very well received by the international mass media. At last, PM Abhisit was able to mend the fence with the UN and put Thailand back on the world’s stage once again, as an active member of UN Peace Keeping Committee and as a candidate for U.N. Human Rights Council in 2017-18. He even had the chance to personally inform the U.N.’s Secretary General about Thailand’s grievous border dispute over UNESCO’s declaration of Khao Phra Viharn as world heritage.

The world has changed

Nowadays, at international meetings such as the U.N., WEF, Group of 20, APEC, ASEAN Summit, joint meetings were organized for governments, business communities and NGO’s to come together to share their views, air their grievances and seek mutually acceptable solutions on hot global issues like human rights, climate change, sustainable growth, environmental protection, consumer protection etc.

In line with what was going on worldwide, people in Thailand too were expecting their government and their elites to seriously address and clarify all these issues to them along the same line, so they would not be swinging like a pendulum from one extreme to another when faced with devastating earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons, pandemics, strikes and violent social uprising.

Ever changing colors!

The number of law suits, filed by and against cabinet ministers and politicians in the last 3-4 years, has been quite overwhelming for the poor judges who have been trying hard to process them in a timely manner. In 9/09 the Supreme Court (for politicians) gave their rulings on two milestone cases (rubber-saplings and 2-digits lottery) against former Thaksin’s cabinet members and key government officials. Both verdicts caught most people by surprise.

Only a handful of some 60-odd defendants were found guilty and their 1-2 year jail-sentences were mostly suspended. Both the Red Shirts and the Yellow Shirts seemed to be equally unhappy to see their now-common opponents (Newin & Co.) off the hook. In their shared misery and desperation, there were even talks (jokes?!) about the possibility of the two colors teaming up to fight against the increasingly powerful Blue Shirts at the next election!

Battle ready?

Although the much-feared Red Shirts rally on 19/9/09 proved to be a false alarm, the Abhisit government went ahead to declare Internal Security Act in Hua Hin/Cha-am area from 12-27/10/09 as deterrence against the Red Shirts’ planned demonstrations before and during the Asean Summit Meeting 21-26/10/09. Meanwhile, Thaksin has decided to recruit former PM General Chavalit as chairman of his Phue Thai Party. More “celebrities” were expected to join the party as they geared up to “win another land slide”at the next election.

On the first anniversary of the Oct. 7th tragedy, the PAD institutionalized their “New Politics Party” (Green Shirts) under the leadership of Sonthi Limthongkul. To attract more members from the Democrat Party, they have been attacking PM Abhisit relentlessly for his “failure” to exercise power over the Bhumjaithai Party’s bosses and for his “inability” to prevent corruption among his cabinet members. PM Abhisit’s supporters believed the Democrat Party could be left out in the cold at the next election, if they failed to win the hearts and minds of the grassroots voters, especially in the northeast.

Out of the tunnel?

The 8/09 economic indicators did support the slow turn-around theory. Industrial utilization and manufacturing production index went slightly down from previous month to 60% and by 10.3% respectively. Although passenger car sales were up, sales of commercial vehicles remained in the red. Private investment was weak, with import of capital goods remaining in the red still. CPI was -1% and core inflation -0.2%. Exports totaled USD 13.18 billion, a slight increase from 6/09 and 7/09 but -17.9% yoy.

Imports were down 33.8% yoy to USD 10.9 billion. Trade balance, current account balance and balance of payments remained in the black at USD 2.27 billion, USD 1.92 billion and USD 41 million respectively. International reserves climbed to USD 127.3 billion. With the weakening USD in 9/09, the THB strengthened to THB 33.29. Gold prices broke USD 1,000 briefly before profit taking brought it down temporarily to USD 980 level. In line with USD strength, oil prices went up and down between USD 73 to USD 65.

Strong surge

With interest rates worldwide remaining at near zero, foreign investors have turned to equity markets especially in Asia. In 9/09 the SET made a spectacular jump, to peak at 730 on 23/9/09 before ending the month at 717. Local investors, mindful of market volatility, have been quick to reap their windfalls when the SET became a “flavor of the month” for foreign funds. There was however a blip on the SET screen when the Administrative Court ruled, on 25/9/09, to temporarily freeze government permits for 76 heavy industry projects worth THB 400 billion in Map Tha Put Industrial Estate, as called for by the environmental activists and affected residents. To appease the agitated private sector, the Abhisit government promised to file an appeal so that both the government and the private sector could obtain further clarification on key environmental requirements as per Article 67 of the 2007 Constitution.

The best is yet to come?

In spite of the prevailing political confusion, many people have managed to maintain their optimism. They kept reminding their compatriots that Thailand has had 60 years of comparatively peaceful period (under the benevolent guidance of HM the King), during which our neighbors i.e. Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Burma Philippines, Indonesia and even Malaysia, had all gone through their political upheavals of much, much greater dimensions.

Considering the 60 years span, Thailand’s current political crisis could not be as catastrophic as many of us have come to believe. The country could certainly afford to take longer time-out to clear the political mess. With greater patience, understanding and sacrifices, Thailand should be able to close the political divide and strengthen the social structure before moving on to a more sustainable economic growth in the long term.

* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.





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  3. The Vongthip Letter Apr 09
  4. The Vongthip Letter Feb ‘10
  5. The Vongthip Letter Nov 09
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  7. The Vongthip Letter Dec 09

October 7, 2009 | Filed Under Business & Economics, Politics, Property & Investment, The Vongthip Letters 

Comments

3 Responses to “The Vongthip Letter Oct 09”

  1. Rich on October 8th, 2009 11.26 am

    Well, it is a viewpoint, but one which may be an attempt to perpetuate a romantic myth rather than offer an objective reality.

    Let’s have another perspective: 350,000 Thais “flocked” to the hospital. How many of the royal family have “flocked” to the hospital? Normally it is televised when they do, nit this time – why?

    In any event, there are an estimated 16,000,000 people in Bangkok. Which means that 15,500,000+ people in Bangkok and 63,500,000 in Thailand were too busy, too poor, too disinterested or whatever to go. 350,000 people is 2.2% of the people in Bangkok, and about half of one percent of the overall Thai population.

    (…) (BD: Had to edit this one.)

    And how does the columnist know that “Millions all over the country, alone or in groups, have been offering their special prayers for his speedy recovery.” Who has counted? Who are these millions of people? Or is the columnist really only projecting her own view upon the Thai population.

    Let’s get it real folks, or let’s not publish it.

  2. stefan on October 8th, 2009 3.42 pm

    Well Dan, in answer to your Tweet, the words “gray market” or “spavined” could apply, the latter word fits especially to these fanciful Vongthip musings.

  3. BangkokDan on October 8th, 2009 3.52 pm

    Seriously stefan, as unbelievable as it sounds, those are sealed, stamped legits! Worth a visit.

    BangkokDan

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